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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Sept 5, 2018 5:16:12 GMT
Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born Glenn Close, The Wife Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy Amy Adams, Backseat/Cheney
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Post by wallsofjericho on Sept 5, 2018 5:22:12 GMT
Exactly the same as yours.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 5, 2018 6:32:15 GMT
4 C's
Cooper Close Chalamet Colman
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Post by DeepArcher on Sept 5, 2018 15:11:05 GMT
Is Cooper really getting enough mentions to be predicting him? From what I can tell most of the praise, acting-wise, is going to Lady Gaga (and even Sam Elliot) ... I'm not even anticipating Cooper to be nominated (in that category) at this point.
Anyway:
Nicole Kidman Willem Dafoe Olivia Colman Timothee Chalamet
Both of those leads are getting across-the-board raves for their performances and have strong narratives backing them. My concern is that both of their respective films are only getting mixed-to-slightly-positive reviews and may not strike well with the Academy, and I'm not sure if they'll get the recognition based on the popularity of their performances alone, especially considering both Destroyer and At Eternity's Gate could go under-seen. Redford is probably the safer bet in Lead Actor...
Colman is a prediction I'm slightly more confident with though I'm not totally sure what they're gonna do with The Favourite's trio of ladies in terms of category placements. I could see them all going supporting, or, perhaps more likely, Stone and Weisz will be pushed as lead and Colman supporting. But also I haven't seen the film itself yet (obviously) and haven't heard much about it in terms of screen-time division and whatnot, so I'm basically talking out of my ass here.
And, well, I have absolutely no idea who the hell is gonna be in the Supporting Actor race at this point, so I'm just throwing Chalamet in there now just because of his absurd popularity and the nature of his role. I'm still expecting Beautiful Boy to be a bomb ... (but Chalamet's performance, I think, will still probably be praised and recognized).
Regardless, we still probably have a lot of big contenders yet to emerge at Toronto, so we're far from having the full picture.
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Post by stephen on Sept 5, 2018 15:16:57 GMT
Is Cooper really getting enough mentions to be predicting him? From what I can tell most of the praise, acting-wise, is going to Lady Gaga (and even Sam Elliot) ... I'm not even anticipating Cooper to be nominated (in that category) at this point. If A Star Is Born is as big of a contender as people make it out to be, they'll likely want to reward Cooper somewhere, and Best Actor seems the right "compromise" pick to do it in. He's likable, he obviously wants it, he'll be out on the circuit . . . basically it's a bold move predicting him to not even get nominated. Although it would be hilarious if he missed.
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Post by DeepArcher on Sept 5, 2018 15:23:29 GMT
Is Cooper really getting enough mentions to be predicting him? From what I can tell most of the praise, acting-wise, is going to Lady Gaga (and even Sam Elliot) ... I'm not even anticipating Cooper to be nominated (in that category) at this point. If A Star Is Born is as big of a contender as people make it out to be, they'll likely want to reward Cooper somewhere, and Best Actor seems the right "compromise" pick to do it in. He's likable, he obviously wants it, he'll be out on the circuit . . . basically it's a bold move predicting him to not even get nominated. Although it would be hilarious if he missed. That's fair... But between an almost guaranteed nomination for Best Picture, a very likely nomination for Adapted Screenplay, and a very possible nomination for Director, it almost feels like he'll be recognized enough elsewhere. But then again, the Academy has shown some over-the-top love for him in recent years, so I guess his chances of getting in are pretty strong. I also just haven't seen much praise for his performance specifically, and Best Actor feels kinda busy this year between Redford, Dafoe, Malek, Gosling, Bale, Jackman, Washington, even some wild cards like Reilly and Hawke, etc... I dunno, I'm probably underestimating Cooper's current place in this race, but as of now I don't see him making it into the top five.
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Post by stephen on Sept 5, 2018 15:30:34 GMT
If A Star Is Born is as big of a contender as people make it out to be, they'll likely want to reward Cooper somewhere, and Best Actor seems the right "compromise" pick to do it in. He's likable, he obviously wants it, he'll be out on the circuit . . . basically it's a bold move predicting him to not even get nominated. Although it would be hilarious if he missed. That's fair... But between an almost guaranteed nomination for Best Picture, a very likely nomination for Adapted Screenplay, and a very possible nomination for Director, it almost feels like he'll be recognized enough elsewhere. But then again, the Academy has shown some over-the-top love for him in recent years, so I guess his chances of getting in are pretty strong. I also just haven't seen much praise for his performance specifically, and Best Actor feels kinda busy this year between Redford, Dafoe, Malek, Gosling, Bale, Jackman, Washington, even some wild cards like Reilly and Hawke, etc... I dunno, I'm probably underestimating Cooper's current place in this race, but as of now I don't see him making it into the top five. Let's say it gets nominations for Picture, Director, Actor, Adapted Screenplay, and I think he also co-wrote a song for it, so let's throw in Original Song. That's five nominations for Cooper right there in one go. I don't think anyone has ever lost that many potential awards in a single night. And Cooper was on a hot streak only a couple of years ago; he still might have goodwill built up. He's the face of the movie as much as Gaga, he'll be out on the circuit even more than her because she's still likely got concerts and performances to do in addition to the trail, he'll be on voters' minds because his name will be everywhere on the ballot, and they may opt for a more "traditional" director's pick while going, "You know, he was pretty good in the movie, too" and put his name there. Plus he's probably the Comedy/Musical Globe frontrunner at the moment. Of the other options you mentioned, I don't see Malek getting in because of the potential controversy of his movie (Singer's involvement), I still think people are overestimating the fuck out of the Cheney movie regardless of Bale's involvement, I think Washington's probably too new (and not really flashy, as good as he is) to break in right now, Dafoe's movie has a lame distributor and is likely too esoteric for voters, and I think Hawke and Reilly are long-shots at best right now. Even Redford, who has arguably the best case of your alternates in having a great narrative, a great distributor and likability in the industry, still has a bit of an uphill climb because of the relatively small nature of his movie. Cooper's movie is poised to be a juggernaut, and he's gonna be gunning hard for it. Bet against him at your own peril.
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Post by Kings_Requiem on Sept 5, 2018 15:32:31 GMT
Redford Gaga Chalamet Kidman
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LaraQ
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English Rose
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Post by LaraQ on Sept 5, 2018 15:56:06 GMT
KIDMAN:Destroyer. COLMAN:The Favourite. CHALAMET:Beautiful Boy. HEDGES: Ben Is Back.
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Post by quetee on Sept 5, 2018 16:00:28 GMT
Robert Redford, The Old Man and the Gun Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk Sam Elliott, A Star is Born I'm on the Sam Elliott train also.
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Post by quetee on Sept 5, 2018 16:04:23 GMT
Bradley cooper is popular and respected. He has the opportunity to score 5 nods this year;
Picture Actor Director Screenplay Song
He's getting min 3.
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Post by JangoB on Sept 5, 2018 17:23:44 GMT
Brad Lee Cooper, A Star is Born Glenn Close, The Wife Chalamet, I guess (this category is the toughest one to predict this year) Olivia Colman, The Favourite
If they put Colman in lead then she wins and Adams wins Supporting for Backseat.
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Sept 5, 2018 18:28:19 GMT
Chalamet, I guess (this category is the toughest one to predict this year) Yeah, this is the category I'm most uncertain about. Right now, I'd probably have Grant in Can You Ever Forgive Me as an alternate... but I'm just feeling Chalamet at the moment given, as Deep Archer said, the nature of the role and the fact that he's hot right now coming off CMBYN.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 5, 2018 19:33:18 GMT
Surprised by the people predicting B Coop.
Not many guys (two) have directed themselves to Oscars, I'm willing to doubt he's gonna join that club.
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Sept 5, 2018 19:43:11 GMT
Surprised by the people predicting B Coop. Not many guys (two) have directed themselves to Oscars, I'm willing to doubt he's gonna join that club. Before the film received critical praise, I doubted Cooper's chances of winning, but at the moment I don't see a viable alternative. Gosling seems too low key, Bale plays too controversial of a figure... I suppose Redford could happen but his movie might be too small, as stephen pointed out. The landscape could change of course, but right now Cooper seems like the best bet.
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Post by quetee on Sept 5, 2018 19:50:05 GMT
Ryan sits out this year.
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Post by quetee on Sept 5, 2018 19:51:00 GMT
Surprised by the people predicting B Coop. Not many guys (two) have directed themselves to Oscars, I'm willing to doubt he's gonna join that club. If they go crazy over this movie all bets are off.
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Post by quetee on Sept 5, 2018 20:12:53 GMT
That's fair... But between an almost guaranteed nomination for Best Picture, a very likely nomination for Adapted Screenplay, and a very possible nomination for Director, it almost feels like he'll be recognized enough elsewhere. But then again, the Academy has shown some over-the-top love for him in recent years, so I guess his chances of getting in are pretty strong. I also just haven't seen much praise for his performance specifically, and Best Actor feels kinda busy this year between Redford, Dafoe, Malek, Gosling, Bale, Jackman, Washington, even some wild cards like Reilly and Hawke, etc... I dunno, I'm probably underestimating Cooper's current place in this race, but as of now I don't see him making it into the top five. Let's say it gets nominations for Picture, Director, Actor, Adapted Screenplay, and I think he also co-wrote a song for it, so let's throw in Original Song. That's five nominations for Cooper right there in one go. I don't think anyone has ever lost that many potential awards in a single night. And Cooper was on a hot streak only a couple of years ago; he still might have goodwill built up. He's the face of the movie as much as Gaga, he'll be out on the circuit even more than her because she's still likely got concerts and performances to do in addition to the trail, he'll be on voters' minds because his name will be everywhere on the ballot, and they may opt for a more "traditional" director's pick while going, "You know, he was pretty good in the movie, too" and put his name there. Plus he's probably the Comedy/Musical Globe frontrunner at the moment. Of the other options you mentioned, I don't see Malek getting in because of the potential controversy of his movie (Singer's involvement), I still think people are overestimating the fuck out of the Cheney movie regardless of Bale's involvement, I think Washington's probably too new (and not really flashy, as good as he is) to break in right now, Dafoe's movie has a lame distributor and is likely too esoteric for voters, and I think Hawke and Reilly are long-shots at best right now. Even Redford, who has arguably the best case of your alternates in having a great narrative, a great distributor and likability in the industry, still has a bit of an uphill climb because of the relatively small nature of his movie. Cooper's movie is poised to be a juggernaut, and he's gonna be gunning hard for it. Bet against him at your own peril. I agree, I wouldn't bet against cooper right now. He hasn't been on screen for what 3 years now?
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 5, 2018 22:54:47 GMT
Cooper?? I see him getting in for directing possibly and maybe actor, but I think Gaga and Elliott are poised to score the most acting praise. Best Actor: Redford without a doubt. He's overdue, his 2013 snub works in his favor, he's had a long and successful career and both the film and his performance are getting raves. I think they're going to award him for his swansong over someone like Cooper who has a long career still ahead of him. Now is the right time to honor Redford. Best Actress: Toss-up between Gaga and Kidman. I'll go with Kidman Supporting Actor: Not sure about this one. Chalamet seems like the obvious choice and he's been predicted at #1 since last spring. Still, I could see all that early hype completely crumble if the film fares poorly with critics, and I could definitely see that happening. In lieu of Chalamet, probably Sam Elliott for Star Is Born (wouldn't that be fantastic?) or Stephen James for Beale Street, but for now I'll keep riding the Timmy Train. Supporting Actress: Toss-up between Colman and Adams. I'll say Colman for now because hers looks like the kind of performance AMPAS will eat up and we still haven't seen any Adams footage yet.
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