Would prefer to wait at least until Toronto ends before doing this, but I'll give it a shot...
Backseat -- It's perhaps a little discouraging that this doesn't seem to be making an appearance at any fall festivals, but this could easily build some sudden December momentum the same way that
The Big Short did. Obviously would rather wait for some reception on this to start predicting it, but it looks too promising (in terms of awards potential) on paper to pass it up when making predictions. Far from a guarantee, but if McKay strikes the same chord with audiences that he did the last time around, then this'll wind up being a big contender.
BlacKkKlansman -- Really the only film theatrically-released thus far this year that looks like a strong contender here, and even then, it doesn't feel like the guarantee that it once did. Sure, it still wound up being one of the more talked-about movies of the summer, but part of me feels like it needed to be
more talked about to have the cultural impact that early-release films generally need to be carried into Oscar glory (i.e., something akin to
Get Out's smash-hit level of success). I guess it really depends on how hard this is pushed later in the season and whether or not its supporters stick with it. I still think with the nature of the material, Lee's reputation, and the generally extremely positive reception to the film, it should get in, but again, it doesn't feel like the contender it looked like it was going to be.
Boy Erased -- Has super topical subject matter and a great cast, both of which are gonna deeply appeal to Academy members. Then there's the positive Telluride reception, which seems to support that this will get itself in the mix this awards season. It'll certainly be one of those that keeps popping up on nominations lists but reaps little success in terms of wins, but I think it'll get enough praise and create enough noise to at least get it on that list. Far, far from a guarantee though.
The Favourite -- Lanthimos and Oscar recognition don't really seem to go hand-in-hand, but if reports are true that this is his most accessible film, then I could certainly see this striking well with the Academy. After all, last year I never would've thought a Martin McDonagh film would prove itself to be a major awards contender, and look what happened with
Three Billboards. Lanthimos may just be this year's McDonagh: a filmmaker well-liked among the cinephile and critic communities who has never had much success in the industry releases his most accessible film to date that generates a lot of festival buzz that carries it into awards season. Not to mention it's boosted by the fact that it's a period piece, and has a cast that the Academy is sure to eat up. I'm not totally confident with this pick, but it seems like a good bet at this point.
First Man -- It's kind of absurd that this film is *already* getting the backlash that it is. I'm not sure if its quite vocal enough yet to ruin its Oscar chances ... but there are many months ahead until the nomination process. Hell, there's even three months between its scheduled wide release and the nomination voting period that could be harmful to its chances. We'll have to wait and see to what extent the film is hit by that backlash, but still, it
should at least be in good standings for a nomination. The fact that it's only at an 81 on Metacritic just a few days after its premiere is slightly discouraging (and a little weird considering it seemed to get mostly universal praise from critics at Venice) to its chances as well ... but again, the praise should still be enough for the nomination, even if it's not backed the passion that will get it a win. It also helps that this will likely be this year's tech juggernaut, so that should help its security in this category.
The Front Runner -- Basically just gonna echo what I put for
Boy Erased here, as it all basically applies to this one too. These are the two I'm predicting that I'm certainly most skeptical about ... though I'll admit that when I saw the trailer for this, it immediately screamed "stock Best Picture nominee that won't win anything" to me. It seems very Reitman-y in a way that the Academy seems to love, the cast will be a huge selling point, and obviously they won't turn away from this subject matter. Again, it's hard to say if this'll be buzzy
enough to get into this line-up, but for now, it seems like a strong contender.
If Beale Street Could Talk -- Gonna have to wait for its premiere next week to be confident with this one, but on paper it seems like a sure thing: a filmmaker who has already had huge Oscar glory, an adaptation of a widely beloved novelist, a nicely-rendered period piece, and a story filled with relevant subject matter. And that's not to mention that the trailer looks pretty sensational. I'd find it hard to believe if this film gets anything less than raves, but more surprising things have happened. Still, it'd be kinda stupid not to predict it at this point.
Mid-90s -- Definitely another one that I
don't want to be predicting before its Toronto premiere ... but even more so, as this is a far riskier pick than
Beale Street. I could look back at this prediction a week from now and think that it's absolutely stupid. But, I'm a sucker for that trailer, and I'm convinced this is gonna be great, so I'm throwing it in for kicks. Mostly, though, I'm just not sure what else A24 is going to put their weight behind --
Eighth Grade is great and was extremely well-liked but didn't seem to make enough waves;
Hereditary is a possibility if they play their cards right, but it's still far too unconventional for the Academy's taste to be predicting just yet; even if the re-vamped
Under the Silver Lake plays better with critics, it'll still probably have that
Inherent Vice-esque atmosphere that just won't do well in the Academy...at all.
Mid-90s, perhaps by default, feels like their best bet. Coming-of-age stuff has done super well with the Academy recently (at least in terms of nominations), and this is yet another one that is given an original twist by its specific setting and the time period that has a lot of nostalgia potential for certain voters. If Jonah pulls it off, then this could be yet another actor-turned-director hit. And from the trailer, it looks accessible and potentially crowd-pleasing enough to be an audience hit as well. It still feels a bit "out there" as a prediction, and I agree, but I find it hard to believe that A24 suddenly disappears from the Best Picture race this year.
A Star is Born -- Already has rapturous love from critics, and is poised to be a big hit among general audiences as well. Plus, the Academy loves Cooper, and many will likely get wrapped up in the nostalgia of the whole "modern update of a Hollywood classic(s)" thing. Also it's probably gonna sweep the Globes' Comedy/Musical categories, perhaps simply for the sake that it's a music-based movie, which will give it huge momentum going into the Academy's nominations. Feels pretty darn close to a lock at this point.
Stopping at nine because I'm not convinced we'll necessarily see ten again this year.
Other possibilities: Roma*, Bohemian Rhapsody, The Old Man & the Gun, The Sisters Brothers, Wildlife (? -- which no one is talking about anymore? hard to say what's gonna happen with this...), maaaaybe Beautiful Boy but I still think it looks like a bomb, and also probably a few others that aren't much on our radar yet.
*I've written extensively in several other threads about why I'm still hesitant on
Roma. It's certainly within the realm of possibility (everything is, at this point), but there's still too much on-paper that seems to work against its favor for me to be sold on its chances.
And just for fun, the current Director line-up I'm predicting: Chazelle, Cuaron, Jenkins, Lanthimos, and Lee ... though I'm not at all married to this, it was pretty hastily put together, and I probably got two out of five at most.
Edit: Forgot about
On the Basis of Sex, which I have a feeling might sneak-in in a
Hidden Figures-esque way.
