How surprising was the Cold Mountain Best Picture snub?

I remember people being a little bit shocked because of how goddamn baity it was and the fact that it was Weinstein, but I also seem to recall a bit of backlash towards Weinstein's bullish campaigning (on the heels of his ultra-aggressive campaign for Gangs of New York that seemed to leave a sour taste in voters' mouths). If memory serves, Mystic River got the late surge and Cold Mountain was always on the fringe, and it probably missed out due to passion voting and a general apathy towards its perceived super-baitiness. Shame, really; I actually enjoyed the movie for what it was and I definitely prefer it over Mystic River, Seabiscuit and Lost in Translation.

Yeah, that’s a good point about Miramax. I remember thinking at the time that it was really bad timing after Gangs of New York, Chicago Etc. 

Not really.  It had a chance.  That's about all.  


Lost in Translation might have not made it.  It was the talk of the year, but the argument was that it wouldn't make enough ballots, and the critics and the stand-out favorite of the year tag that it had on it was what was giving it a chance to get nominated.  It had a great chance no doubt, but it wasn't locked.

Master and Commander looked... good, but then there was also The Last Samurai which had a slight chance.  And Master and Commander had to separate itself against Cold Mountain and The Last Samurai.  3 epics which all had a great chance before the year began.

Seabiscuit nomination actually surprised some too.  It was a good sentimental story, and the talks in the media was about the sentiment and the good sounding nature of the hapless horse becoming a champion - which is comparable to a feel-good sports story.  Not really much else was talked about it apart from the true-story aspect of it.  It had a chance, but probably the least chances among the 5 nominees. 

It was like this.  At a certain point (LOTR and Cold Mountain were not released yet in October or November 2003), people became convinced it was LOTR - Master and Commander - Mystic River - Cold Mountain.  Who's #5?  People kept arguing Lost in Translation wasn't awards bait enough.  And Seabiscuit would get pushed to the back once those December releases starts getting shown.  

But then it turned out.....Cold Mountain really disappointed people.  The Last Samurai too.  Not one person posting on IMDB back then preferred those two to Mystic River and Lost in Translation.   Mystic River doesn't have a strong status today, but back in 2003... LIT and Mystic River were There Will Be Blood and No Country for Old Men.  Not that people thought Mystic River was going to be a classic or anything, but people were either team-LIT or team-Mystic River.  While it seemed like there were an even amount of lovers of both at first, there will be all these new users who invade a few months later, and all of those new users usually seemed to prefer Lost in Translation.  LOTR had not been released yet, but even after its release, lots of Lost in Translation fanboys looked down on it.  

So in short, I think Seabiscuit made it in barely over Cold Mountain.  Seabiscuit surprised people because the reviews were better than expected for a movie nobody cared if it sucked.  Cold Mountain disappointed people because people wanted to it be very good.  It was definitely everyone's prediction to win Best Picture before the year began.  But then, it's definitely possible that Cold Mountain and Seabiscuit both make it, and Lost in Translation would've been left out.

Actually, Seabiscuit was probably more secure than people think. It had a PGA nomination (which Mystic River didn't), it had a DGA nomination (which went 5/5 with the Academy's BP lineup), it had WGA (not the most essential precursor, but still), and it had SAG Ensemble, which neither Master and Commander nor Lost in Translation (or Cold Mountain, in fact) had. It's easy to dog the film now, but it's one of the only two BP nominees that year to hit all the necessary industry precursors.

I think they started in like 98 or 99. I started posting in 08. 

I remember being very surprised because it was a period drama, it was Harvey, it was Minghella, it was Law-Zelwegger-Kidman. It had everything to be an Oscar contender.