|
|
Post by JangoB on Jul 2, 2018 11:28:07 GMT
Or maybe even wins? I know it's just the beginning of July but hey, some things can be discussed early on. Do you think there're already some sure bets for Oscar nominations?
"Incredibles 2" and "Isle of Dogs" seem like definite nominees for Best Animated Film, and overall there doesn't seem to be too many other animated films this year that could possibly push them out of the lineup.
"A Quiet Place" will probably be a strong nominee for Sound Mixing and Sound Editing a-la "Baby Driver" - both movies are big success stories with the main gimmick being the sound design. I know that horror films haven't done too well with the sound branch throughout the Academy's history but I think this'll break the curse.
We'll see how "Black Panther" does but I'm pretty damn certain that Ruth Carter will get a richly deserved Best Costume Design nomination. And speaking of costumes, I can't picture Sandy Powell not getting a nod for "Mary Poppins Returns".
What do you think?
|
|
|
|
Post by stabcaesar on Jul 2, 2018 11:36:17 GMT
Amy Adams for supporting actress.
|
|
LaraQ
Badass
English Rose
Posts: 2,304 
Likes: 2,838
|
Post by LaraQ on Jul 2, 2018 12:02:27 GMT
Toni Collette is starting to feel like a lock for Hereditary.Glen Close for The Wife too.And Chalamet for Beautiful Boy.  |
|
Zeb31
Based
Bernardo is not believing que vous êtes come to bing bing avec nous
Posts: 2,557 
Likes: 3,794
|
Post by Zeb31 on Jul 2, 2018 13:22:13 GMT
No, it's July. I hesitate to call anything locked even in November, much less in the middle of the Summer.
But re: your picks, it does look like a really thin year for animated films, so Incredibles 2 and Isle of Dogs should be safe. I won't call them 100% guarantees because Pixar sequels haven't had the best of luck lately and The LEGO Movie shows there's precedent for a highly acclaimed early-year release getting snubbed in a shocking upset, but they're probably in and one of them will likely win. History says it'd be Incredibles 2 given the rave reviews and astonishing BO success, but right now I'm pulling for Dogs even if I haven't seen it yet because Bird already has his 2 Oscars while Wes is yet to get his in spite of all his deserving work.
A Quiet Place makes sense for some Sound love, yeah. Again, I wouldn't call it a lock because it came out so early, but the sound work is plenty showy and it has the perfect combination of critical love + box-office glory. Same with Black Panther, which should be a shoo in for Costumes like other first quarter Disney blockbusters like Beauty and the Beast and Cinderella, but there's still a chance it might get passed over for more traditional period piece fare if Disney doesn't campaign as aggressively as they need to.
As for the rest of the mentions, I don't see how anything that hasn't even had an official screening can be locked, especially when it comes to acting categories, given that they're among the most unpredictable and prone to last-minute shake-ups.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
Likes:
|
Post by Deleted on Jul 2, 2018 14:48:29 GMT
No, it's July. I hesitate to call anything locked even in November, much less in the middle of the Summer. But re: your picks, it does look like a really thin year for animated films, so Incredibles 2 and Isle of Dogs should be safe. I won't call them 100% guarantees because Pixar sequels haven't had the best of luck lately and The LEGO Movie shows there's precedent for a highly acclaimed early-year release getting snubbed in a shocking upset, but they're probably in and one of them will likely win. History says it'd be Incredibles 2 given the rave reviews and astonishing BO success, but right now I'm pulling for Dogs even if I haven't seen it yet because Bird already has his 2 Oscars while Wes is yet to get his in spite of all his deserving work. isle of dogs also is very relevant, all with it being anti-propoganda and also had an anti-trump undertone in it, as i felt. if things go right, they're gonna cream all over it. it might be my bias talking, cuz i know from now that i want it, but if (if) things go right, it might even get some get out-esque love. |
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Jul 2, 2018 16:33:43 GMT
I have a lot of faith that Won't You Be My Neighbor? is the doc to beat. I'd also say Incredibles 2 is pretty far out in front.
|
|
LaraQ
Badass
English Rose
Posts: 2,304
Likes: 2,838
|
Post by LaraQ on Jul 2, 2018 17:01:27 GMT
No, it's July. I hesitate to call anything locked even in November, much less in the middle of the Summer. But re: your picks, it does look like a really thin year for animated films, so Incredibles 2 and Isle of Dogs should be safe. I won't call them 100% guarantees because Pixar sequels haven't had the best of luck lately and The LEGO Movie shows there's precedent for a highly acclaimed early-year release getting snubbed in a shocking upset, but they're probably in and one of them will likely win. History says it'd be Incredibles 2 given the rave reviews and astonishing BO success, but right now I'm pulling for Dogs even if I haven't seen it yet because Bird already has his 2 Oscars while Wes is yet to get his in spite of all his deserving work. A Quiet Place makes sense for some Sound love, yeah. Again, I wouldn't call it a lock because it came out so early, but the sound work is plenty showy and it has the perfect combination of critical love + box-office glory. Same with Black Panther, which should be a shoo in for Costumes like other first quarter Disney blockbusters like Beauty and the Beast and Cinderella, but there's still a chance it might get passed over for more traditional period piece fare if Disney doesn't campaign as aggressively as they need to. As for the rest of the mentions, I don't see how anything that hasn't even had an official screening can be locked, especially when it comes to acting categories, given that they're among the most unpredictable and prone to last-minute shake-ups. Acting and Best Picture noms are nearly always locked by November. |
|
|
|
Post by quetee on Jul 2, 2018 17:02:26 GMT
In the main 8? Nope.
|
|
Zeb31
Based
Bernardo is not believing que vous êtes come to bing bing avec nous
Posts: 2,557
Likes: 3,794
|
Post by Zeb31 on Jul 2, 2018 17:57:49 GMT
Acting and Best Picture noms are nearly always locked by November. Can't say I agree there. We often have clear frontrunners at that point and most of the nominees can be accurately predicted, but I don't see how anything can be locked before a single industry precursor announces its nominees unless you're talking about exceptionally surefire (and screened) bait with weak competition like Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine, and even then I wouldn't be so liberal with the term. I remember The Shape of Water had dwindling buzz back in November and many (myself included) had written it off for a BP win; Three Billboards was yet to be hit with the backlash that weakened its performance at the finish line; Get Out didn't appear to be anywhere near the powerhouse it turned out to be; Denzel was dismissed as an also-ran due to his film's disappointing BO/reviews; and The Post/ Phantom Thread were completely unknown entities that could've gone either way. We can only get a completely firm grasp on where things are headed after the televised awards start rolling out, especially the Globes. Last year's Supporting Actor race was pretty evenly split between Rockwell and Dafoe until the former won the Globe, and then there was Best Actress the year before, with Portman getting "locked" talk throughout the season and even winning the BFCA until Jackie started flagging hard at the industry awards and Isabelle Huppert won the one major televised precursor that Portman was assumed to have sewn up. We know what transpired after that. |
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Jul 2, 2018 18:00:28 GMT
and then there was Best Actress the year before, with Portman getting "locked" talk throughout the season and even winning the BFCA until Jackie started flagging hard at the industry awards and Isabelle Huppert won the one major televised precursor that Portman was assumed to have sewn up. We know what transpired after that.  Never forget. |
|
|
|
Post by akittystang on Jul 2, 2018 19:27:10 GMT
It was all Merc's fault.
|
|
|
|
Post by finniussnrub on Jul 2, 2018 19:31:40 GMT
Well I really can't wait for the first week of critic groups' awards, then we'll know all the locks to win..........
|
|
Zeb31
Based
Bernardo is not believing que vous êtes come to bing bing avec nous
Posts: 2,557
Likes: 3,794
|
Post by Zeb31 on Jul 2, 2018 19:50:33 GMT
100%, no doubt about it whatsoever. He spent the whole season shitting on Stone's singing, saying he hated Portman but she was locked. Then Jackie started to wane while La La Land cleaned up everywhere, so he changed his prediction to Stone. Lo and behold, Portman wins the BFCA. He switches back to Portman saying there was never any chance they'd pass on a film that baity, while simultaneously stanning for Blunt in Girl on the Train and insisting that she was coming for Huppert's spot. Then the Globes happen. He then switches his focus to starting multiple anti-Huppert threads with news about how Elle was so sick and shocking that voters weren't even sitting through the entirety of it and were voting for Blunt instead. Then the nominations come out. I wonder how he reacted to that BP upset. I'm lowkey convinced that that ceremony only turned out the way it did because of how much Merc hated Moonlight and Mahershala Ali. |
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Jul 2, 2018 19:52:47 GMT
100%, no doubt about it whatsoever. He spent the whole season shitting on Stone's singing, saying he hated Portman but she was locked. Then Jackie started to wane while La La Land cleaned up everywhere, so he changed his prediction to Stone. Lo and behold, Portman wins the BFCA. He switches back to Portman saying there was never any chance they'd pass on a film that baity, while simultaneously stanning for Blunt in Girl on the Train and insisting that she was coming for Huppert's spot. Then the Globes happen. He then switches his focus to starting multiple anti-Huppert threads with news about how Elle was so sick and shocking that voters weren't even sitting through the entirety of it and were voting for Blunt instead. Then the nominations come out. I wonder how he reacted to that BP upset. I'm lowkey convinced that that ceremony only turned out the way it did because of how much Merc hated Moonlight and Mahershala Ali. He really was the best prognostication tool in the business. |
|
|
|
Post by bob-coppola on Jul 4, 2018 18:26:15 GMT
Other than Isle of Dogs and Incredibles 2 for Best Animation, I don't think we have any locks.
|
|
|
|
Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jul 5, 2018 4:11:13 GMT
First Man for cinematography, film editing, and at least one sound category, Incredibles and maybe Isle of Dogs for animation (i could see the latter missing out here), and Mr. Rogers for documentary. Collette looks very strong on paper but we have to wait and see. Just because Get Out happened doesn't mean there still isn't a horror stigma, and Hereditary has nowhere near the same level of mass appeal or social relevancy so I could see it getting snubbed altogether.
|
|
|
|
Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jul 5, 2018 4:16:25 GMT
And speaking of costumes, I can't picture Sandy Powell not getting a nod for "Mary Poppins Returns". That's a very safe bet. Sandy Powell is the Meryl Streep of costume design. |
|
speeders
Based
Posts: 4,093
Likes: 2,212
|
Post by speeders on Jul 8, 2018 21:35:24 GMT
Timothée Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
Sandy Powell for costume design
Won't You Be My Neighbor for documentary
Incredibles 2 and Isle of Dogs for animation
Amy Adams, Backseat
|
|
Never forget.
