The Visual Effects race.

First Man is currently my pick to win. Makes the most sense anyway. I wouldn't be surprised if Solo doesn't get a nom as well.

Let's not forget about Ad Astra.

I think we already have a whole bunch of tough contenders here so let's see:

Black Panther - obviously gonna have a huge awards push and it being a great success helps it, but I think it can actually miss since there have been some complaints about the quality of its effects, and the VFX branch doesn't seem to care that much whether a film is successful/woke or not (Wonder Woman last year proved that). But it seems like a safe bet on paper.

Ready Player One - I hope that the branch recognizes this film and I think there's a great chance that they will. Tons of effects, intense performance capture stuff, building a whole digital world - all this speaks in its favor. Plus there's an extra creative aspect to the effects here because of how many various characters are there on the screen and how some of them look more cartoonish and others more realistic. And then there's the overall thing of the characters looking highly believable and real and yet maintaining a 'video game character' look which is a balance that the film pulls off magnificently. I hope they nominate it.

Avengers: Infinity War - I think this should be in, given how much of a monster hit it is and how much effects stuff is going on here. They nominated plenty of Marvel movies before and here we are with a movie that has all of those effects in one big package! Also Thanos is a remarkable VFX achievement.

Solo: A Star Wars Story - Although Star Wars movies do get in VFX quite easily with Revenge of the Sith being the sole exception, I don't think Solo's chances are set in stone. The film's reception has been less than enthusiastic and although, as I've mentioned, the VFX branch doesn't seem to really care all that much about that, I think they may just find the work to be 'been there done that' kind of stuff. The film doesn't really distinguish itself among other blockbusters of the year and while the effects are terrific, I think this may end up without a nomination. I'm predicting it at the moment but I won't be surprised if it misses.

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom - Who knows, maybe they'll go for this one? The effects are considerably better than in "Jurassic World" and there sure is plenty of them.

Then we're gonna have some space movies (First Man, Ad Astra) so maybe one of them will snatch a spot. There's also Ant-Man and the Wasp on the horizon. The one I'm curious about is Serkis's take on Jungle Book - I think these will be the most divisive effects of the year but who knows, maybe they'll find enough admirers in the Academy. I don't think there's a frontrunner in the category right now - there doesn't seem to be any unstoppable achievement yet. I think we're in for a 2015-like situation when we're not going to be sure about the winner until it is revealed (although I don't think it's going to be something as small as Ex Machina).