Best Picture Debate: TSOW v. 3BNEM

I think what this comes down to is whether the Academy can stomach what The Shape Of Water is or isn't - what it is, is a genre mash-up made with a lot of care but that's it. I have already stated that I hated Shape of Water but aside from that no film remotely close to what this "is" has ever won.

It will be historic (as it would if Get Out, also not worthy won). My guess, my hope/my prayer (lol) is that they won't do it, that they know they are voting for history - we may think the Academy is a joke but they do take it seriously and to them, always, subject matter, matters imo (so for me Dunkirk has more of a dark horse shot than Lady Bird or Get Out).

Now having said all that 3 BB's can't win without screenplay which is ridiculously tough - 4 of those films have a shot, and without it, it's done. It needs to win Screenplay very badly and it has to avoid the momentum of 2 other films - Get Out and Lady Bird stealing this (don't get me wrong those 2 screenplays in comparison are like the scribbling of a child compared to a Fitzgerald novel lol) - but everything has to break right for 3 BB's to win.

Advantage: Shape of Water