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Post by countjohn on Jan 23, 2018 18:28:03 GMT
.......do to the BP race?
I think this significantly increases Shape of Water's chances of taking both BP and director, and I might start calling it the favorite now. Lady Bird's chances of being the dark horse and pulling the upset also went up a little since it got in for Best Director and 3B didn't. That's still a long-shot though. The thing is the only time in recent memory a movie has won BP without a director nomination is Argo, and that was in a weird wide open year.
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Post by jimmalone on Jan 23, 2018 18:47:54 GMT
I agree that The Shape of Water is the favorite now. I don't think Lady Birds chances are very big though. It has no editing nod. I think it has to win Screenplay and Actress to get the big one. I actually think that Dunkirk has at least as good a chance to upset The Shape of Water.
Billboards, which at least has the editing nod, is still in second place, since Argo did the same thing just five years ago. I think that Argo's direction was much more beloved though, as proven by Affleck's DGA win. I still think that one of the reasons he didn't get the director nod was that many voters assumed he was safely in anyways and voted for someone else.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 23, 2018 19:17:40 GMT
I think it puts Shape of Water as the clear, and nearly overwhelming favorite but this is a weird year too because the movie is by far the weirdest most goofy BP favorite ever imo.
I think that its subject matter has to be a huge turn off and maybe that creates a scenario for Dunkirk or 3 BB's - but it's a lot harder than it was before that happened.
Everything else to me isn't really in the race, Lady Bird to me is too slight, Get Out is too minor, CMBYN is too marginalized in other categories, Phantom Thread did great but I don't think has the broader support...........
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Post by stephen on Jan 23, 2018 19:27:11 GMT
It doesn't really do much, if I'm being perfectly honest. It's far more of an actor/screenplay-centered film, and I think that passion-voting got all five candidates in where McDonagh was probably #3 or #4 on most ballots but probably not #1, and the late PTA surge managed to overtake him.
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Post by countjohn on Jan 23, 2018 19:34:57 GMT
Has Dunkirk won any major awards? It's getting nommed for everything, but it only starting to win at the Oscars would be a big surprise. Lady Bird is at least winning the comedy stuff, which is why I named it as the third dark horse. I suppose Dunkirk could win BP/director at the BAFTAs and start a last minute charge, sort of like The King's Speech did.
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Post by theycallmemrfish on Jan 23, 2018 19:42:10 GMT
Just the Academy not wanting to recognize an Irish in the directing category.
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Post by FrancescoAbides on Jan 23, 2018 19:42:29 GMT
Has Dunkirk won any major awards? It's getting nommed for everything, but it only starting to win at the Oscars would be a big surprise. Lady Bird is at least winning the comedy stuff, which is why I named it as the third dark horse. I suppose Dunkirk could win BP/director at the BAFTAs and start a last minute charge, sort of like The King's Speech did. would have needed to win PGA to pull a The King's Speech |
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 23, 2018 19:44:23 GMT
I think Billboards still has a chance if it wins original screenplay. If not, Shape of Water will probably take the win, and that's what I'm predicting will happen as of this morning, because I think Get Out's taking the screenplay gold.
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Post by Martin Stett on Jan 23, 2018 20:30:33 GMT
3B really needs screenplay now. I don't put all that much stock in it missing director (it got in for enough techs -- even score!), but it needs to win screenplay now that it missed director entirely.
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filmnoir
Full Member
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 23, 2018 20:42:02 GMT
McDonagh was certainly one of the biggest surprise snubs. More than Franco, because there was a possibility that he would get bounced.
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dazed
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Post by dazed on Jan 23, 2018 23:45:24 GMT
If Billboards wins Screenplay, it’ll win Picture. Assuming that Rockwell and McDormand win too of course, which looks very likely.
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Post by FrancescoAbides on Jan 23, 2018 23:47:27 GMT
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 24, 2018 2:42:14 GMT
Three Billboards definitely took a hit, with the director "snub". But it still will have at least 2 major wins under its belt for actress and supporting actor.
For 3BNEM to move back to the #1 spot, it needs to win best original screenplay.
Screenplay/Picture is the most reliable Best Picture stat to be honest:
2016 - Moonlight (Screenplay and Supporting Actor)
2015 - Spotlight (Screenplay)
2014 - Birdman (Director and Screenplay)
2013 - 12 Years (Screenplay and Supporting Actress)
2012 - Argo (Screenplay)
2011 - The Artist (Director and Actor)
2010 - The King's Speech (Director, Actor, and Screenplay)
2009 - Hurt Locker (Director and Screenplay)
2008 - Slumdog (Director and Screenplay)
2007 - No Country (Director, Screenplay, and Supporting Actor)
2006 - The Departed (Director and Screenplay)
2005 - Crash (Screenplay)
2004 - Million Dollar Baby (Actress, Supporting Actor, and Director)
2003 - Return of the King (Director, Screenplay)
2002 - Chicago (Supporting Actress)
2001 - A Beautiful Mind (Director, Supporting Actress, Actor, and Screenplay)
2000 - Gladiator (Actor)
In the last 17 years, only 4/17 winners failed to win a screenplay award. All of them scored a PGA, DGA, and SAGE.
It's going to come down to either the Best Original Screenplay winner OR the Best Director winner.
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Post by mikediastavrone96 on Jan 24, 2018 2:59:07 GMT
Simply put, it shows the directing branch doesn't quite have as strong a passion for it, though McDonagh was almost certainly 6th. It also makes the road easier for The Shape of Water, which is as weird a BP frontrunner on paper as I could possibly imagine.
Original Screenplay will be interesting to see. Get Out has the unique premise, Three Billboards has the stylistic dialogue, and then you've got Lady Bird hanging around as maybe being the most broadly likable one of the bunch (which could also help it as a potential spoiler in the preferential ballot for BP).
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 24, 2018 3:11:29 GMT
Simply put, it shows the directing branch doesn't quite have as strong a passion for it, though McDonagh was almost certainly 6th. It also makes the road easier for The Shape of Water, which is as weird a BP frontrunner on paper as I could possibly imagine. Original Screenplay will be interesting to see. Get Out has the unique premise, Three Billboards has the stylistic dialogue, and then you've got Lady Bird hanging around as maybe being the most broadly likable one of the bunch (which could also help it as a potential spoiler in the preferential ballot for BP). GET OUT won the Critics Choice for Original Screenplay and 20 critics circle prizes (the most of all the screenplay awards). THREE BILLBOARDs won the Globe for screenplay and 5 critics circle prizes. The good news here is we actually get a contest here for Best Picture. |
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Post by alexanderblanchett on Jan 25, 2018 20:10:35 GMT
After ARgo everything is possible.
Still think The Shape of Water is ahead of it tho
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