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Post by stephen on Jan 23, 2018 16:26:46 GMT
Unless Fox Searchlight goes insane and try to make an Argo-esque come-back, its chances are pretty slim I guess after the BD snub. It indeed got seven nods which is huge, but that snub was a big blow. I think The Shape of Water might win, or it could be BP/BD split, with Lady Bird or Phantom Thread winning. The MeToo movement could push Lady Bird, and the surprising strenght of Paul Thomas Anderson could be a sign. Fox Searchlight has The Shape of Water, too. But keep in mind: Three Billboards winning Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor and Best Screenplay would be enough to justify a Picture win. Especially as The Shape of Water, as inclusive as it might be, is still a genre film featuring a cross-species relationship. It might still be too out there for AMPAS to embrace in Picture. I expect it to be this year's Gravity, but there's still a lot of race to be run.
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Post by Lord_Buscemi on Jan 23, 2018 16:28:11 GMT
Hopefully not Three Memeboards.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 23, 2018 16:32:47 GMT
I think people maybe might be misreading this thing based on the nods - I haven't seen Phantom Thread but but I think it's nods are the wins for it (and Get Out) and Lady Bird which I do like doesn't have the heft of a BP winner, and the members know they are voting for history.
Shape of Water, Dunkirk, 3 BB's are the race as far as I can tell?
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Post by theycallmemrfish on Jan 23, 2018 16:34:03 GMT
The greatest horror film of all time will win now.
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Post by stephen on Jan 23, 2018 16:36:47 GMT
I think people maybe might be misreading this thing based on the nods - I haven't seen Phantom Thread but but I think it's nods are the wins for it (and Get Out) and Lady Bird which I do like doesn't have the heft of a BP winner, and the members know they are voting for history. Shape of Water, Dunkirk, 3 BB's are the race as far as I can tell? I think you underestimate Get Out and overestimate Dunkirk. The former has a very strong narrative to it in the current social climate, and the latter's been overshadowed by The Shape of Water as the tech juggernaut.
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Lubezki
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the social distancing
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Post by Lubezki on Jan 23, 2018 16:38:24 GMT
I'm inclining towards The Shape of Water. I hope it gets BP and Nolan gets BD, that'd be awesome. Yup. or, you know.....Dunkirk for both.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 23, 2018 16:40:30 GMT
Maybe but I think when you are at this stage history matters "a horror comedy (satire)" as a BP winner just doesn't compute, the voting for history thing is going to get in the way as far as I can tell. I wouldn't put my money on Dunkirk, but it is a plausible scenario to me more so than Get Out.
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Post by stephen on Jan 23, 2018 16:43:44 GMT
Maybe but I think when you are at this stage history matters "a horror comedy (satire)" as a BP winner just doesn't compute, the voting for history thing is going to get in the way as far as I can tell. I wouldn't put my money on Dunkirk, but it is a plausible scenario to me more so than Get Out. I mean, it's been a decade of firsts. And a lot of people are emphasizing the "social satire/horror" aspects of it over its comedy (as evidenced by the Golden Globe controversy regarding its placement). I mean, is a film about racial body-snatching/brain transplants any more "out there" as a winner as opposed to a movie where a mute woman fucks Abe Sapien?
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Post by jimmalone on Jan 23, 2018 16:55:04 GMT
I think the things point towards The Shape of Water now. The director nod is usually just to important for the Best Picture winner as well, as this is the main essence of telling a film. It's true that just a few years back Argo won Best Picture without a director nod. But Affleck won the DGA the same year and I still assume, that he just didn't get the nod, because many voters believed he was safely in anyways.
Three Billboards definitely is the second contender right now. I actually think Dunkirk is in third place.
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Post by bob-coppola on Jan 23, 2018 17:15:34 GMT
Unless Fox Searchlight goes insane and try to make an Argo-esque come-back, its chances are pretty slim I guess after the BD snub. It indeed got seven nods which is huge, but that snub was a big blow. I think The Shape of Water might win, or it could be BP/BD split, with Lady Bird or Phantom Thread winning. The MeToo movement could push Lady Bird, and the surprising strenght of Paul Thomas Anderson could be a sign. Fox Searchlight has The Shape of Water, too. But keep in mind: Three Billboards winning Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor and Best Screenplay would be enough to justify a Picture win. Especially as The Shape of Water, as inclusive as it might be, is still a genre film featuring a cross-species relationship. It might still be too out there for AMPAS to embrace in Picture. I expect it to be this year's Gravity, but there's still a lot of race to be run. I know. That's exactly why they won't go after this narrative. Also, I don't think Screenplay is a given, the year is very competitive between this, Lady Bird and Get Out. I think TSOW could be this year's Gravity or La La Land as well.
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Post by harlequinade on Jan 23, 2018 17:19:35 GMT
Hopefully Billboards.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 24, 2018 10:52:37 GMT
At the moment, it's obviously The Shape of Water. It scored the most Oscar nominations. It's the only best picture nominee with directing, writing, and screenplay nomination. It already has the PGA win.
But I can see Three Billboards and Get Out winning too. They would fall in the #2 and #3 spot.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 24, 2018 11:02:13 GMT
Unless Fox Searchlight goes insane and try to make an Argo-esque come-back, its chances are pretty slim I guess after the BD snub. It indeed got seven nods which is huge, but that snub was a big blow. I think The Shape of Water might win, or it could be BP/BD split, with Lady Bird or Phantom Thread winning. The MeToo movement could push Lady Bird, and the surprising strenght of Paul Thomas Anderson could be a sign. Fox Searchlight has The Shape of Water, too. But keep in mind: Three Billboards winning Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor and Best Screenplay would be enough to justify a Picture win. Especially as The Shape of Water, as inclusive as it might be, is still a genre film featuring a cross-species relationship. It might still be too out there for AMPAS to embrace in Picture. I expect it to be this year's Gravity, but there's still a lot of race to be run. The Academy's preferential ballot is important here. The question here is which film is the most likable and least controversial. As of today, it's hard to tell. Three Billboards might be seen as too violent or using too much dark/black comedy. The Shape of Water might be seen as "too freaky". Get Out might be seen as too much of a horror movie.
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tonyz
New Member
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Post by tonyz on Jan 24, 2018 18:44:11 GMT
The Shape of Water is winning right now. Three Billboards is right behind. But if Get Out wins Screenplay, I could see it maybe taking the big prize too.
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Post by bob-coppola on Jan 24, 2018 22:18:35 GMT
Fox Searchlight has The Shape of Water, too. But keep in mind: Three Billboards winning Best Actress, Best Supporting Actor and Best Screenplay would be enough to justify a Picture win. Especially as The Shape of Water, as inclusive as it might be, is still a genre film featuring a cross-species relationship. It might still be too out there for AMPAS to embrace in Picture. I expect it to be this year's Gravity, but there's still a lot of race to be run. The Academy's preferential ballot is important here. The question here is which film is the most likable and least controversial. As of today, it's hard to tell. Three Billboards might be seen as too violent or using too much dark/black comedy. The Shape of Water might be seen as "too freaky". Get Out might be seen as too much of a horror movie. 3B is definetly the most divisive, just look at the backlash that's already happening. I'd say Get Out is too divisive too. TSOW (even being a genre fantasy picture) and Lady Bird seem like the safest choice.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 25, 2018 11:29:31 GMT
3B is definetly the most divisive, just look at the backlash that's already happening. I'd say Get Out is too divisive too. TSOW (even being a genre fantasy picture) and Lady Bird seem like the safest choice. My only issue with saying Lady Bird is lack of major wins. Other than winning Best Comedy/Musical and Best Comedy/Musical Actress at the Globes, it has been silent. It didn't win any major Critics Choice awards. It didn't win any SAG or PGA awards. The BAFTAs didn't nominate it for director and picture. To me, it needs get on the board for me to consider it the "most likable" and "least controversial". I get that RT.com only has 1 rotten review and it doesn't have anything "freaky" about it. Lets face it: The Best Picture winner isn't going to win just Best Picture. It HAS to win at least one major non-technical award. We have to see how things pan out. If Lady Bird wins the WGA and BAFTA, then I think its chance of winning will go up. Right now, it's shaping up to TSOW vs. 3BNEM vs. Get Out.
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Post by brockmeeks on Jan 25, 2018 17:31:31 GMT
Three Billboards.
I don't think it will matter that much that it missed Director. He will win for screenplay and it has two acting wins pretty much locked (and it's deserved.)
I just don't see The Shape of Water sweeping. I think it will win Director but not BP. Like Gravity and 12 Years.
A lot of the rules are being bent/changed since up to 10 nominees are allowed.
I wouldn't completely rule out Greta Gerwig or Ladybird, but my gut says Three Billboards for BP and Del Toro for Director.
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Post by alexanderblanchett on Jan 25, 2018 20:02:04 GMT
I'd say The Shape of Water
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