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Post by Billy_Costigan on Jan 21, 2018 6:37:46 GMT
I think Lady Bird needed a big win. Get Out too.
The Shape of Water vs Three Billboards (which probably wins SAG tomorrow)
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Post by stephen on Jan 21, 2018 6:38:13 GMT
Boom. Guillermo comin' for that double win this year.
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Post by Pavan on Jan 21, 2018 6:44:17 GMT
A genre film for Best Picture Oscar  |
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Jan 21, 2018 6:44:40 GMT
*Vomits*
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 21, 2018 6:44:55 GMT
yaaaas.
pga hasn't matched with the oscars for the last 2 years tho, just a stat.
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Lubezki
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the social distancing
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Post by Lubezki on Jan 21, 2018 6:44:58 GMT
Yeah, if BD wasn't a forgone conclusion before, it is now.
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doodle
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Post by doodle on Jan 21, 2018 6:49:33 GMT
Three Shitboards falls
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 21, 2018 7:12:06 GMT
woah. I still see Three Billboards taking BP though...
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Post by countjohn on Jan 21, 2018 7:19:41 GMT
woah. I still see Three Billboards taking BP though... Del Toro's winning director and BP is a tossup between those two. I've been saying that for a while. |
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 21, 2018 7:23:13 GMT
woah. I still see Three Billboards taking BP though... Del Toro's winning director and BP is a tossup between those two. I've been saying that for a while. True, but I think it helps that Three Billboards is a frontrunner for lead actress and supporting actor, and maybe even screenplay. Shape of Water isn't a frontrunner in anything other than director, original score, and maaaybe production design. I just don't think it will get the love it needs to go all the way. Though at the moment it does seem to be in second place. |
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Post by pendragon on Jan 21, 2018 7:42:37 GMT
Boom. Guillermo comin' for that double win this year. how likely is it wins BP. Two other films have won the PGA without a SAG Ensemble nomination: Gravity and La La Land. Just something to think about. |
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 21, 2018 7:55:03 GMT
I love this award. If DGA goes for Del Toro, as we all expect it to do, The Shape Of Water perhaps becomes the most viable contender.
Will it be the one to finally kill the SAG Ensemble stat?
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Post by harlequinade on Jan 21, 2018 11:23:50 GMT
Yeah, I'm with you on that |
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 21, 2018 11:49:57 GMT
As long as 3 Billboards wins SAG, it wins BP clearly (and deservedly) and this finishes off Lady Bird now as a BP winner - and Shape can be happy with Best Director, DGA and Oscar. I haven't seen Shape but I'm sticking with too genre-y to really win the Oscar, they have that legit BP winner staring them in the face with 3 Billboards and even if they didn't like it, Dunkirk is the reasonable alternative just for technical mastery and type of film.
3 Billboards is winning by attrition at this point......
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Post by bob-coppola on Jan 21, 2018 12:32:48 GMT
Well, La La Land and The Big Short are the two most recent PGA winners. I hate to be that guy, but...
And, after Hidden Figures winning last year, I think SAG is going to award either Get Out or Lady Bird to make a statement.
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Post by jimmalone on Jan 21, 2018 13:20:26 GMT
Not really a surprise for me. I also think del Toro has the director award probably in the bag.
I think the Best Picture Race is still a three-horse-race between 3 Billboards, Shape and Lady Bird, but Lady Bird is certainly back in third place for now.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 21, 2018 13:40:12 GMT
I think Lady Bird needed a big win. Get Out too. The Shape of Water vs Three Billboards (which probably wins SAG tomorrow) Three Billboards is my #1 and The Shape of Water is my #2 of the year so I'll be really happy with either of those winning BP. Personally still think it will be split with GDT winning Director and Three Billboard winning BP (this would also be my preference). I liked Lady Bird enough (just outside my top 10) but really don't think it should be in the conversation for BP. |
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 21, 2018 13:43:31 GMT
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 21, 2018 13:53:35 GMT
I think Lady Bird needed a big win. Get Out too. The Shape of Water vs Three Billboards (which probably wins SAG tomorrow) First off, congrats to TSOW. It's a wonderful film. The PGA winner has gone on to win Best Picture 18/28 times or 64%. For the last two seasons, the PGA winner has not won Best Picture. If we count Gravity's tie with 12YAS, then it's 18/29 times or 62%. Here's something we need to understand: Pretty much every single Best Picture winner has gone on to win with at least 1 major non-technical award. Moonlight won for screenplay and supporting actor. Spotlight won for best screenplay. Birdman won for directing and screenplay. Argo won for screenplay. The Artist won for director and actor. TKS won for actor, director, and screenplay. As it stands now, Three Billboards is penciled in for actress and supporting actor, and maybe original screenplay. Get Out is a maybe for original. With Lady Bird, it needs to get on the board. Ronan beating McDormand or Metcalf beating Janney would move the needle forward. My New Power Rankings: 1. Three Billboards 2. The Shape of Water 3. Get Out 4. Lady Bird 5. Dunkirk 6. Call Me By Your Name 7. I, Tonya 8. The Big Sick 9. The Post 10. The Darkest Hour |
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Post by notacrook on Jan 21, 2018 15:26:06 GMT
Still hoping for a Lady Bird BP win, but that's seeming less and less likely now. If it's boiled down to this and Three Billboards, I'll be rooting for this all the way.
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Post by pessimusreincarnated on Jan 21, 2018 16:29:23 GMT
Aaaaand I still need to see it
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Zeb31
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Bernardo is not believing que vous êtes come to bing bing avec nous
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Post by Zeb31 on Jan 21, 2018 16:33:02 GMT
Jesus, I had no idea that was this soon.
Slow the fuck down, season.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 21, 2018 16:33:34 GMT
As long as 3 Billboards wins SAG, it wins BP clearly (and deservedly) and this finishes off Lady Bird now as a BP winner - and Shape can be happy with Best Director, DGA and Oscar. I haven't seen Shape but I'm sticking with too genre-y to really win the Oscar, they have that legit BP winner staring them in the face with 3 Billboards and even if they didn't like it, Dunkirk is the reasonable alternative just for technical mastery and type of film. 3 Billboards is winning by attrition at this point...... Winning SAG doesn't clearly means it will win BP. 3B has a lot of TV actors and most of SAG's TV voters aren't AMPAS voters. 3B is also more polarizing. The film has gotten a lot of backlash for portraying stereotypes. With preferential balloting, I am not convinced it will generate enough #2 or #3 votes - which is what help BP like Moonlight, Spotlight. |
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Post by finniussnrub on Jan 21, 2018 17:31:01 GMT
Well, looks like it's time to test the old "No SAG ensemble" rule again.
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Post by dadsburgers on Jan 21, 2018 19:16:18 GMT
I think the whole needing SAG-Ensemble to win Best Picture is BS, but Shape of Water wouldn't be the one to break it. It's an ensemble film! La La Land and Gravity didn't have ensembles to nominate. Shape of Water missing an ensemble nomination, when a major part of its success is the performances and chemistry of Hawkins, Jones, Shannon, Spencer, Jenkins, and Stuhlbarg, is actually a big deal. Three Billboards is getting Picture, Screenplay, Actress, Supporting Actor. Shape of Water is getting Director, Score, Production Design, maybe Cinematography. Lady Bird might get Supporting Actress  Get Out and The Post will be empty handed - the nominations are their wins Dunkirk will get Editing, Sound, Special Effects Call Me by Your Name will get Adapted (obviously) |
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