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Post by HELENA MARIA on Jan 18, 2018 19:28:57 GMT
Nominated or snubbed ?
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Post by stephen on Jan 18, 2018 19:38:55 GMT
Lost out at SAG and BAFTA. His film is losing steam. Stuhlbarg is getting more buzz at the current moment because of his banner year. Unless the Three Billboards backlash extends to the actors' branch, I think Sam and Woody are the double nominees of the year.
So yeah, I think Hammer's out looking in.
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Post by Christ_Ian_Bale on Jan 18, 2018 20:02:49 GMT
No, but I'm still betting Stuhlbarg is a surprise inclusion. His ending monologue is, far and away, the most discussed scene in a movie where a guy fucks a peach.
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Post by FrancescoAbides on Jan 18, 2018 20:13:24 GMT
Out because Woody
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Post by therealcomicman117 on Jan 18, 2018 20:29:59 GMT
I'd say in.
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Savager
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Post by Savager on Jan 18, 2018 20:34:05 GMT
Outer than Kevin Spacey.
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Jan 18, 2018 21:38:18 GMT
I think he's #6 at the moment.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 18, 2018 22:08:15 GMT
IN are Dafoe, Rockwell, Harrelson - who scored both SAG and BAFTA.
The other 2 spots?
Plummer has a BAFTA nod and Jenkins has the SAG nod?
But this is a category where someone can get in without SAG and BAFTA.
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Post by sirjeremy on Jan 18, 2018 22:09:23 GMT
Yes, mainly because of all the campaigning he's doing.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 18, 2018 22:30:19 GMT
I don't know...I hope he's in
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Post by bob-coppola on Jan 18, 2018 23:03:34 GMT
They're not gonna nominate two people from the same movie in the category. I'd say he's in.
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Jan 18, 2018 23:10:13 GMT
They're not gonna nominate two people from the same movie in the category. I'd say he's in. I mean, SAG and BAFTA both did. |
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doodle
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Post by doodle on Jan 19, 2018 0:26:04 GMT
Lost out at SAG and BAFTA. His film is losing steam. Stuhlbarg is getting more buzz at the current moment because of his banner year. Unless the Three Billboards backlash extends to the actors' branch, I think Sam and Woody are the double nominees of the year. So yeah, I think Hammer's out looking in. Losing steam how? I'd say it's been the same for about three weeks now. |
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Post by stephen on Jan 19, 2018 0:31:14 GMT
Lost out at SAG and BAFTA. His film is losing steam. Stuhlbarg is getting more buzz at the current moment because of his banner year. Unless the Three Billboards backlash extends to the actors' branch, I think Sam and Woody are the double nominees of the year. So yeah, I think Hammer's out looking in. Losing steam how? I'd say it's been the same for about three weeks now. Losing steam in a general sense, with Oldman cementing his position and with the supporting race favoring Rockwell to the point that Harrelson looks poised to get coattail love as well. BAFTA gave Guadagnino a nice boost (though I think DGA goes 5/5 this year), but the supporting men were left out in the cold again. There's very little sign that Call Me By Your Name can regain that lost ground unless Three Billboards takes a heavy dose of backlash and a couple of other contenders go down in the bargain. |
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 19, 2018 2:28:51 GMT
Losing steam how? I'd say it's been the same for about three weeks now. Losing steam in a general sense, with Oldman cementing his position and with the supporting race favoring Rockwell to the point that Harrelson looks poised to get coattail love as well. BAFTA gave Guadagnino a nice boost (though I think DGA goes 5/5 this year), but the supporting men were left out in the cold again. There's very little sign that Call Me By Your Name can regain that lost ground unless Three Billboards takes a heavy dose of backlash and a couple of other contenders go down in the bargain. Hammer getting in would not be dependent on the Billboard guys taking a hit.
There are 5 slots. Only Dafoe, Rockwell, Harrelson have the SAG and BAFTA nods.
The other 2 slots aren't as clear.
Even without SAG or BAFTA, Michael Shannon, Sylvester Stallone, Tom Hardy, Jonah Hill have gotten in.
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Post by stephen on Jan 19, 2018 2:39:18 GMT
Losing steam in a general sense, with Oldman cementing his position and with the supporting race favoring Rockwell to the point that Harrelson looks poised to get coattail love as well. BAFTA gave Guadagnino a nice boost (though I think DGA goes 5/5 this year), but the supporting men were left out in the cold again. There's very little sign that Call Me By Your Name can regain that lost ground unless Three Billboards takes a heavy dose of backlash and a couple of other contenders go down in the bargain. Hammer getting in would not be dependent on the Billboard guys taking a hit.
There are 5 slots. Only Dafoe, Rockwell, Harrelson have the SAG and BAFTA nods.
The other 2 slots aren't as clear.
Even without SAG or BAFTA, Michael Shannon, Sylvester Stallone, Tom Hardy, Jonah Hill have gotten in. Hence the "other contenders" mention. All the Money in the World caught a hefty dose of backlash of its own right at the peak of Oscar voting in regards to the Williams/Wahlberg mess, and I'm not sure how that will affect Plummer. Jenkins missed BAFTA, which went gaga for The Shape of Water in all other categories, so I don't know if he missed just because they really, really wanted to recognize Grant or because Jenkins is lower on the totem pole and more vulnerable than Harrelson. I did expect one of the Call Me By Your Name boys to make it in, but the lack of industry precursors for them gives me pause, and even then, I'm not sure which one would actually have the upper hand. History would lean Hammer's way because he's got more screentime, but Stuhlbarg has the scene everyone's talking about, so I have no clue. I think Jenkins is still in and the fifth slot is still up for grabs. It all depends on who had the most buzz at that crucial voting time. As for your examples, Stallone had the Globe win and a massive sympathy narrative to his name that year, but BAFTA wasn't really going to bite a Rocky movie and SAG, I think, didn't take him seriously in the thick of voting for nominees, and then he won NBR, BFCA and the Globe in rapid succession. Plus 2015 was kind of a clusterfuck as far as precursors went. Hardy and Hill both had the DiCaprio factor going for them; he really knows how to campaign for his co-stars. Shannon is definitely the odd duck, but his co-star actually won the Globe and wound up not getting nominated. Shit, I almost wanna say keep an eye out for Shannon to upset Jenkins because it's happened before. |
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Post by stephen on Jan 19, 2018 2:46:44 GMT
Hence the "other contenders" mention. All the Money in the World caught a hefty dose of backlash of its own right at the peak of Oscar voting in regards to the Williams/Wahlberg mess, and I'm not sure how that will affect Plummer. Jenkins missed BAFTA, which went gaga for The Shape of Water in all other categories, so I don't know if he missed just because they really, really wanted to recognize Grant or because Jenkins is lower on the totem pole and more vulnerable than Harrelson. I did expect one of the Call Me By Your Name boys to make it in, but the lack of industry precursors for them gives me pause, and even then, I'm not sure which one would actually have the upper hand. History would lean Hammer's way because he's got more screentime, but Stuhlbarg has the scene everyone's talking about, so I have no clue. I think Jenkins is still in and the fifth slot is still up for grabs. It all depends on who had the most buzz at that crucial voting time. As for your examples, Stallone had the Globe win and a massive sympathy narrative to his name that year, but BAFTA wasn't really going to bite a Rocky movie and SAG, I think, didn't take him seriously in the thick of voting for nominees, and then he won NBR, BFCA and the Globe in rapid succession. Plus 2015 was kind of a clusterfuck as far as precursors went. Hardy and Hill both had the DiCaprio factor going for them; he really knows how to campaign for his co-stars. Shannon is definitely the odd duck, but his co-star actually won the Globe and wound up not getting nominated. Shit, I almost wanna say keep an eye out for Shannon to upset Jenkins because it's happened before. Eh yeah But Shannon just doesn't seem on the radar would feel very left field to me if he slipped in possibly. I did say "almost."  |
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Post by stephen on Jan 19, 2018 2:50:14 GMT
I did say "almost." I know, in a perfect world Ford would be a possible contender. You spelled Hamill wrong.  Ford was fine but he wasn't my favorite supporting actor in 2049. Bautista, though, we can talk about that. |
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Post by stephen on Jan 19, 2018 2:55:02 GMT
You spelled Hamill wrong. Ford was fine but he wasn't my favorite supporting actor in 2049. Bautista, though, we can talk about that. Hamill but don't forget Driver too both were very memorable, made the rest of the movie forgettable whenever Luke and Kylo shared the screen as well. Driver was much better than he was in The Force Awakens, I'll give ya that. Still don't think he's quite on the level of Hamill, but there's potential there and I really hope the third film plays into that. |
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Post by cheesecake on Jan 19, 2018 4:44:09 GMT
Out.
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 19, 2018 7:20:37 GMT
I think he's out but I wouldn't be surprised to see him in. I just don't think the role he plays makes it easy.
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Post by evilbliss on Jan 19, 2018 14:13:34 GMT
This is a fun bet. I really don't know. I'm gonna say IN but ....who knows. He lost a bit of power. |
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jakob
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Post by jakob on Jan 19, 2018 22:44:29 GMT
I’m not giving up on him! I’ve been tempted, but he’s campigning well, there are enough passionate people that will probably coattail him off of Chalamet and the film (I’m also NGNG predicting Guadagnino), and it’ll probably be his best chance at a nomination considering its one of the very few times he’s been pitch-perfectly cast.
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