fotodude
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Post by fotodude on Jan 10, 2018 14:41:37 GMT
New month, new BP poll. You know the drill: the poll is only to make my tallying easier. Since it doesn't let us add more options here, I'm simply going to list all the films that received at least one vote last time. If you want to vote for something else, you can: just post your choice below.
Otherwise only use the poll function to vote. Again, don't vote twice if you're also on OB. You can also post below to explain your vote, or if you want to guarantee future bragging rights if you call it early, but only the poll votes will be tallied (with the exception above). I'll keep it open for a few days, then post the results with some comments.
The Oscar race is now in full gear and after the Globes and BAFTA nominations a past frontrunner seems to be back on top: Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. After taking 4 Golden Globes and garnering support across the board, things seem to be aligning for it to win. Only a strong surge in backlash given its controversial themes could make a difference, especially considering the preferential ballot. This could benefit Lady Bird, which also did quite well at the Globes, or Get Out, favored by most critics groups, although both somewhat disappointed with the BAFTAs on Tuesday. Maybe The Shape of Water will sneak in and end up taking it after all: Del Toro is now the frontrunner for the directing prize, the film has been doing very well and it'll probably get the most nominations on Oscar morning. After this top 4, things get shakier, and it's almost certain that we won't see a winner beyond them, although the distance between the contenders is a lot narrower than what we're used to. For comparison's sake, in January last year these were the results:
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Post by bob-coppola on Jan 10, 2018 15:10:25 GMT
The Shape of Water and Three Billboards are shaping up to be the frontrunners, but there's a building narrative, everytime Greta Gerwig misses a BD award, that people get angrier and there's more claiming for a woman director to be recognized. There's still more or less two months to TSOF and 3B to lose steam, and the one to be benefited is Lady Bird.
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Post by notacrook on Jan 10, 2018 16:04:41 GMT
I'm kinda getting Revenant flashbacks with Three Billboards. That may be misguided, but I just don't think it'll win BP, especially with the growing backlash that seems directly linked to the current political climate that has taken hold.
I still see this as a really open field in many ways, which is thrilling. I'd say it's boiled down to Lady Bird, Three Billboards and The Shape of Water, all of which feel like such unlikely winners. Dunkirk and Get Out are right behind. Right now I'd say Lady Bird, which still feels like it has loads of support (and, more importantly, less detractors than the others). I agree that every time Gerwig misses, it feels like there's a stronger urge to reward it somehow.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 10, 2018 16:06:33 GMT
Three Billboards
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Post by Martin Stett on Jan 10, 2018 16:50:02 GMT
I'm still on the Billboard train. I could see either Lady or Water taking it, but 3BB is such an "actor's movie" by the looks of things (haven't seen it yet).
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Post by quetee on Jan 10, 2018 17:12:42 GMT
I'm so confused right now. Lmao.
Ranked
Lady bird Get out Three billboards
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Post by joephoenix on Jan 10, 2018 17:13:05 GMT
Three Billboards seems like a solid pick right now and I have voted for it before, but I just don't think it'll play as well on the preferential ballot. I'll go with Lady Bird for now but I don't feel super confident about that either.
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Post by bruinjoe96 on Jan 10, 2018 18:59:57 GMT
Three Billboards.
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Post by HELENA MARIA on Jan 10, 2018 19:06:18 GMT
3 BILLBOARDS
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Jan 10, 2018 19:26:41 GMT
Three Billboards. I stuck with Dunkirk literally all year, but now that it's been left out at SAG and Rylance hasn't shown up at BAFTA, I gotta let it go...
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Post by FrancescoAbides on Jan 10, 2018 22:51:58 GMT
Three Billboards
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 10, 2018 23:41:50 GMT
I have this gut feeling that it's going to be The Shape Of Water.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 11, 2018 0:03:33 GMT
I'm going with Lady Bird
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Post by quetee on Jan 11, 2018 0:23:13 GMT
I slightly think that 3BB is this year's King's Speech, lel king's speech made $100 mil plus domestic.
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Post by theycallmemrfish on Jan 11, 2018 2:13:37 GMT
The Shape of Water and Three Billboards are shaping up to be the frontrunners, but there's a building narrative, everytime Greta Gerwig misses a BD award, that people get angrier and there's more claiming for a woman director to be recognized. There's still more or less two months to TSOF and 3B to lose steam, and the one to be benefited is Lady Bird. Where were they in 2012 when the best directoral achievement of the past ten years was from a lady!
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Post by bob-coppola on Jan 11, 2018 4:22:46 GMT
The Shape of Water and Three Billboards are shaping up to be the frontrunners, but there's a building narrative, everytime Greta Gerwig misses a BD award, that people get angrier and there's more claiming for a woman director to be recognized. There's still more or less two months to TSOF and 3B to lose steam, and the one to be benefited is Lady Bird. Where were they in 2012 when the best directoral achievement of the past ten years was from a lady! Don't even get me started on that, Bigelow deserved at least another nod for 0D30. But you know, the media had already put Argo under its wing.
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Post by jimmalone on Jan 11, 2018 8:46:51 GMT
The Shape of Water and Three Billboards are shaping up to be the frontrunners, but there's a building narrative, everytime Greta Gerwig misses a BD award, that people get angrier and there's more claiming for a woman director to be recognized. There's still more or less two months to TSOF and 3B to lose steam, and the one to be benefited is Lady Bird. Where were they in 2012 when the best directoral achievement of the past ten years was from a lady! Bigelow did a better job with The Hurt Locker and rightfully won for that. Having said that I wouldn't have minded a further nod for her great work in Zero Dark Thirty. But not a win (which should have gone to the also snubbed Affleck). I really don't like the way how everybody screams today, if there isn't a female or a black director nominee and this is just a very bad effect of "social media". You can think that Bigelow or Gerwig or some other woman can make a great movie, but for you it might just not be one of the five best directed of the year. You also have to set it into relation. How many movies are there? I don't know the numbers, but I'm pretty sure there are many more films directed by men than by women. So the probability of men making the cut is just much higher. There might be some guys who say: Well, I just don't want to vote for a woman. But it is as wrong to say: I'll vote for her, BECAUSE she's a woman. I'd vote for what is my favorite work.
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Post by jimmalone on Jan 11, 2018 11:52:05 GMT
As on the topic of the thread I'm really not sure. I think all 3 Billboards, The Shape of Water and Lady Bird have chances. I've heard rumours that Billboards isn't THAT well received with the academy members. These can just be rumours, but they were present last year with La La Land as well and we know this turned out to be true.
One point that irritates me as well is that neither Billboards nor Shape of Water made the NBR Top Ten list. And their taste usually matches quite well with the Academy as the Best Picture winner missed there only twice in the last 28 years (A Beautiful Mind, Lord of the Rings). Shape of Water missed SAG as well. But a gut feeling says it can break those streaks.
Still right now I'll go with Lady Bird.
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 11, 2018 12:25:59 GMT
It's going to come down to either 3BB, Lady Bird, or Get Out. All of these films received a SAGE and PGA nomination.
I am leaning toward 3BB because of how well it played at the Globes. Winning Screenplay and Actress are pretty strong signs of a BP front-runner.
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Post by therealcomicman117 on Jan 11, 2018 19:55:36 GMT
Three Billboards, though I think it can be anything. Lady Bird is also a strong possibility.
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Post by Sharbs on Jan 12, 2018 18:28:29 GMT
The shape of Water. It's all but a guarantee that GDT wins best director. So I'm not gonna predict a split, even though they have been more common lately
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