The-Havok
Badass
Doing pretty good so far
Posts: 1,155
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Post by The-Havok on Jan 9, 2018 22:19:23 GMT
Brit love for BR2049 shouldn’t be shocking. They nominated the original for 9 awards iirc. Let’s hope it pulls off a Skyfall next Tuesday.
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Post by thomasjerome on Jan 9, 2018 22:19:37 GMT
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Post by bob-coppola on Jan 9, 2018 23:02:39 GMT
If anything, I think Dench (the presumed #6 up until now) faltering and missing in favor of someone who's also very weak in the race benefits Chastain, who's emerging as the best outlier to spoil the consensus top five (and whose film came out in the UK eight days ago, according to IMDB, which explains the BAFTA miss). Molly's Game is peaking right now and is clearly playing better than expected to the industry, given its overperformance in the past few weeks. Ballots are out just as it's showing up in unexpected places (the WGA nom was a given, but the ACE Eddie and especially the PGA nod were not) and doing well at the box-office (unlike Steve Jobs, which also had a strong limited run, Molly didn't collapse when it went wide and is posting solid numbers). Plus, Chastain and Sorkin are out there working the circuit like crazy, and Hammond hints in his latest column that the film is "very well-liked" and that people are responding well to their public appearances. I'm not predicting her to break in because the top five look too strong to overtake right now, but I'd say she's firmly in 6th at this point and seems to be the likeliest to pull a Ruth Negga and benefit from a shocking last-minute snub. Probably something like this: 1. McDormand 2. Ronan 3. Robbie 4. Streep/Hawkins 6. Chastain 7. Dench 8. Bening I'm expecting Hawkins to miss in favor of someone else. Streep snub from BAFTA/SAG is worrying, as is the underwhelm of The Post at the awards, but I think she's safer than Hawkins. The Shape of Water is indeed leading the pack, but her narrative reminds me a lot of Amy Adams last year. Arrival was showered with love by the Academy, and Adams campaigned like crazy (which Sally isn't doing) and also had Nocturnal Animals to keep her name on people's mind (which Sally also doesn't have), and yet I guess the genre bias was a wall she couldn't come throught. I was predicting Hawkins to miss in favor of Vicky Krieps after the Phantom Thread reviews, but even thought the film is a lot less controversial than expected, she wasn't embraced. Maybe there's still hope (hello, Cotillard in 2014?), but yeah, Chastain is far ahead than the other possibilities. Molly's Game is overperforming everywhere.
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Post by marvelass on Jan 9, 2018 23:53:55 GMT
Thanks! I didn't realize they had a choice. The Oscars will nominate you in whatever category they want, even if you publicly object the placement or honor.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 10, 2018 0:10:45 GMT
You have to consider Three Billboards the front runner right now. But I think it will be hurt by the preferential ballot. I'm going with Lady Bird for the Oscar win. Agreed, I'm leaning towards Lady Bird as well. I'm still predicting Lady Bird still. I think people fall into the trap of "stats" and miss the bigger picture. I was guilty of this last year and I remember people yelling about PGA stats the year Spotlight won. All you need to do is read the room during the Golden Globes to see the narrative this year. I also think every award Greta misses the more pissed off people are getting.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 10, 2018 0:16:57 GMT
Thanks! I didn't realize they had a choice. The Oscars will nominate you in whatever category they want, even if you publicly object the placement or honor. They can kind of (unofficially) do something like that at the Oscars. I remember Michael Moore more of less removed Fahrenheit 9/11 from contention in an attempt to get a BP nod. Since I don't think it would have missed a Doc nod otherwise it partially worked. Leo also refused to campaign supporting for The Departed to give his co stars a better chance.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 10, 2018 0:39:41 GMT
there's going to be sooooo much backlash when Get Out under-preforms at the Oscars. Gives me a headache thinking about it
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 10, 2018 0:40:18 GMT
way to go Three Billboards. Steadily pushing its way to the front of the pack
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Schiggy
Full Member
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Post by Schiggy on Jan 10, 2018 0:46:37 GMT
No Judi Dench? Did she forget one of QEII Corgi's birthdays or something and she demanded they forget her, too??
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Post by bob-coppola on Jan 10, 2018 0:57:57 GMT
Agreed, I'm leaning towards Lady Bird as well. I'm still predicting Lady Bird still. I think people fall into the trap of "stats" and miss the bigger picture. I was guilty of this last year and I remember people yelling about PGA stats the year Spotlight won. All you need to do is read the room during the Golden Globes to see the narrative this year. I also think every award Greta misses the more pissed off people are getting. I second that.
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Zeb31
Based
Bernardo is not believing que vous êtes come to bing bing avec nous
Posts: 2,557
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Post by Zeb31 on Jan 10, 2018 2:10:31 GMT
I'm expecting Hawkins to miss in favor of someone else. Streep snub from BAFTA/SAG is worrying, as is the underwhelm of The Post at the awards, but I think she's safer than Hawkins. The Shape of Water is indeed leading the pack, but her narrative reminds me a lot of Amy Adams last year. Arrival was showered with love by the Academy, and Adams campaigned like crazy (which Sally isn't doing) and also had Nocturnal Animals to keep her name on people's mind (which Sally also doesn't have), and yet I guess the genre bias was a wall she couldn't come throught. I was predicting Hawkins to miss in favor of Vicky Krieps after the Phantom Thread reviews, but even thought the film is a lot less controversial than expected, she wasn't embraced. Maybe there's still hope (hello, Cotillard in 2014?), but yeah, Chastain is far ahead than the other possibilities. Molly's Game is overperforming everywhere. Yeah, for a second there it looked like Krieps was waiting in the wings to shake up the race, but then she just never really caught on. Even the groups that came to bat for Phantom Thread didn't really go for her. Plus, unlike Cotillard, she's not a previous winner with a string of recent snubs and buzz for being overdue for a second nomination; also unlike Cotillard, she's not competing in a weak-ass year. I've had a gut feeling that Hawkins could get the Adams treatment since Venice, and I still think that's possible even if she has a few things working in her favor that Adams didn't. The Shape of Water may be a genre project, but it's much stronger than Arrival overall, since it's arguably the Director frontrunner and has led the nomination tally at the Globes, BAFTA and BFCA, which I'm thinking will also happen at the Oscars. I haven't seen it yet, but from what I've read, it's also a much juicier part, and one that, unlike Adams's, doesn't lack a clear Oscar clip. She'll also be helped tremendously by the fact that she's not the only actor in contention from her film, since Jenkins (GG + SAG nods) and Spencer (GG + BAFTA nods) are also in the running and getting support. One thing that does hurt Hawkins, however, is that she's mostly (completely?) absent from the campaign trail, and she's not a McDormand-level legend who can get away with it. Even the lower-tier contenders that everyone has basically written out at this point like Bening, Winslet, Stone, Kruger and Lawrence have had more visibility than her. She's basically been invisible throughout the season, which won't be fatal because her film will be seen and embraced no matter what, but could potentially cost her some #1 love. And then there's Streep, who, shockingly enough, is actually a wild card for once. It's fucking astonishing that there's a real chance she'll miss the one year she's finally starring in a BP contender from an A++ list director, but The Post just doesn't seem to inspire that much passion. The SAG snubs are easily explained (very very late-breaking film, very early voting period; happens to major contenders every once in a while), but the BAFTA shut-out could be pretty telling. I hear they've had screeners for a whole month, so you'd think it'd show up somewhere at all. Django Unchained, for one, couldn't meet the SAG deadline but bounced back in a huge way at BAFTA, adding to its snowballing momentum following its 2 Globe wins; ditto The Wolf of Wall Street, for another (DiCaprio-starring) example. The Post, however, got zilch from the British, and going home empty-handed at the Globes means less exposure too. If anyone can do it, it's Meryl, but it's curious that since the SAG Awards' inception, for every single one of her Oscar nominations (from Bridges of Madison County in 1995 to Florence Foster Jenkins), she's always had at least one of the two (SAG/BAFTA) to back herself up. This will be the first time that she has none. And she's playing the lead in a fucking Spielberg joint. That also stars Tom Hanks. About journalistic integrity. In 2017. With an 83 on MC. She went from #1 with a bullet and a threat for her fourth win to a possible snub. What the fuck even is this season. But back to the point: I won't foster (jenkins) any expectations that she'll be left out, because whole generations have perished without ever witnessing the mythical Meryl Streep Oscar snub, but for once I think she's actually vulnerable, as is Hawkins to a certain degree. Any combination of Streep, Hawkins and Chastain for the last two slots is very much a possibility, with only McDormand, Ronan and Robbie safely in.
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AKenjiB
Badass
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Post by AKenjiB on Jan 12, 2018 1:16:01 GMT
Really happy for Denis Villeneuve! That said, damn, nothing for Armie Hammer? So he got in at critic’s choice and the golden globes, but not SAG or BAFTA. I really hope he still gets nominated at the Oscars. Harrelson got SAG and BAFTA, but missed out on BFCA and GG. Furthermore, the last time the Academy nominated more than one actor in Supporting for the same film was for BUGSY in 1991. I knew that would be a problem for Hammer and Stuhlbarg when many people were predicting them both at the beginning. But it looks like Stuhlbarg is out, so that's not a problem for Hammer anymore. However, it is for Harrelson, because Sam Rockwell is definitely a lock for a nod. (God, I hope I got the names right!) I won’t lie, it’ll never happen but I’d love to see Rockwell, Harrleson, Hammer and Stuhlbarg all get nominated. But yeah Stuhlbarg is probably out unless he ends up being a surprise nominee like Michael Shannon in Nocturnal Animals. Of course, I also want Jenkins and Dafoe to get nominated so st least one on my wish list has to get left out. That said, I don’t think Harrelson and Rockwell both getting in is an impossibility. The film is arguably the best picture frontrunner and besides the 6 people already mentioned, the only other real contenders are Plummer and Carell.
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