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Post by Pavan on Jan 9, 2018 13:46:24 GMT
I'm very surprised by The Shape of Water's awards performance considering the type of film it is.
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Post by Pavan on Jan 9, 2018 14:01:30 GMT
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Post by Christ_Ian_Bale on Jan 9, 2018 14:31:56 GMT
It seemed like it was going to be an exciting season, but I think this sews up the winners, 3BB, del Toro, McDormand, Oldman, Janney, and Rockwell. We've still got two months to go, bro. Let's wait for some guild wins, yeah?
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Jan 9, 2018 14:56:51 GMT
So fucking happy that Blade Runner got 8 nominations (including director!!!)
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2018 15:14:58 GMT
even though martin is british doesn't mean it's a British film It is when it's paid for with British money...
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2018 15:16:17 GMT
Huppert's brilliance doesn't end just because it turned 2017, BAFTA! How can you nominate the film and NOT nominate her performance? Anyway, happy for The Bening.
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Jan 9, 2018 15:43:23 GMT
You have to consider Three Billboards the front runner right now. But I think it will be hurt by the preferential ballot. I'm going with Lady Bird for the Oscar win.
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Post by therealcomicman117 on Jan 9, 2018 16:39:40 GMT
The Post is entirely out! bye bye Spielberg Still getting nominated for best picture though. Spielberg's chances were always "doomed", and I think most had dropped him out of their prediction already, so I guess it was expected in a five picture field like BAFTA.
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Post by therealcomicman117 on Jan 9, 2018 16:40:37 GMT
even though martin is british doesn't mean it's a British film A British company was involved with it. I'm also sure the fact that it's a Brits outside perspective of the U.S. is why the BAFTA went crazy for it.
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Post by therealcomicman117 on Jan 9, 2018 16:43:29 GMT
Oh wow, I was right on the money with the BP line-up. Darkest Hour got in at the expense of Lady Bird. I think Three Billboards is easily going to be the BP Oscar winnner, same for BAFTA... Bening getting in over Dench was the biggest shock though, IMO. Okay, maybe the Paddington 2 love is, especially Grant. But given how poor I thought Jenkins I was, I'm sure Grant is more earned TBH... Pleasantly surprised by The Post snubs (eat your heart out, Streep), but I guess it probably wasn't eligible? Then again, All the Money in the World got in. I'm happy that Get Out and Lady Bird are losing steam, never ever bought them as best picture winners. Lady Bird is going to score big nominations (would count out Gerwig though) at the Oscars, but I'm less optimistic about Get Out, right now I only see original screenplay, maaaaybe picture. EDIT: Denis Villeneuve!!!!!! Easily my favorite nomination here and of all of the awards so far. Get Out is gonna make it in the nine picture field IMO. The academy would be dumb not to nominate it anyway (though they've always been dumb, so I dunna). More people saw it then most of the best picture potentials outside of Dunkirk.
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Post by jimmalone on Jan 9, 2018 16:58:50 GMT
BAFTAs are often great. This time as well.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2018 17:01:21 GMT
not the biggest fan of br2049, and especially Denis's work in it, but those nods are sooooo sexy
there for the 3B, TSoW and PT love too.
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Post by marvelass on Jan 9, 2018 17:11:10 GMT
even though martin is british doesn't mean it's a British film It is when it's paid for with British money... It's a co-US/British production, not entirely British.
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2018 17:24:19 GMT
It is when it's paid for with British money... It's a co-US/British production, not entirely British. Yes. And it was filmed in North Carolina.
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Post by morton on Jan 9, 2018 17:31:22 GMT
It seemed like it was going to be an exciting season, but I think this sews up the winners, 3BB, del Toro, McDormand, Oldman, Janney, and Rockwell. Huh? All those actors were going to be nominated by BAFTA, so why do you think their nominations mean they're now the front runners? It's just how Get Out, Lady Bird, and even Dunkirk underperformed, while they obviously loved Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and The Shape of Water. With Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri doing so well at the Globes, and probably doing very well with nominations and SAG, and now with BAFTA really loving it, I don't think that Get Out and Lady Bird can come back. While The Shape of Water didn't get that SAG Cast nomination, it's still done very well overall compared to Dunkirk even at BAFTA which everyone all season has said was going to be where Dunkirk would rule. Further, Dafoe and Metcalf were nominated here as expected, it doesn't help that their competition's films overperformed while their film's underperformed, and so I don't see Janney and Rockwell losing here. Metcalf may still be able to win SAG, but Janney is obviously very beloved too. Likewise Dafoe may be able to win there, but it seems unlikely to me now given how much the industry loves Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Best Actress might still be a toss-up depending if SAG actually awards TBOEM, 2 individual awards + ensemble, but I think McDormand probably clenched the win for everything with her awesome Globes speech.
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Post by Zeb31 on Jan 9, 2018 18:00:36 GMT
It is when it's paid for with British money... It's a co-US/British production, not entirely British. Paddington 2 and The Death of Stalin, also nominated in this category, are also co-productions with other countries. Doesn't seem to be an issue. Gravity won it a few years ago, and I don't think anyone would associate that with the UK before they do with the US and Mexico.
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Post by reggaetapes on Jan 9, 2018 18:46:56 GMT
You have to consider Three Billboards the front runner right now. But I think it will be hurt by the preferential ballot. I'm going with Lady Bird for the Oscar win. Agreed, I'm leaning towards Lady Bird as well.
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Post by Allenism on Jan 9, 2018 19:15:47 GMT
Huh? All those actors were going to be nominated by BAFTA, so why do you think their nominations mean they're now the front runners? It's just how Get Out, Lady Bird, and even Dunkirk underperformed, while they obviously loved Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and The Shape of Water. With Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri doing so well at the Globes, and probably doing very well with nominations and SAG, and now with BAFTA really loving it, I don't think that Get Out and Lady Bird can come back. While The Shape of Water didn't get that SAG Cast nomination, it's still done very well overall compared to Dunkirk even at BAFTA which everyone all season has said was going to be where Dunkirk would rule. Further, Dafoe and Metcalf were nominated here as expected, it doesn't help that their competition's films overperformed while their film's underperformed, and so I don't see Janney and Rockwell losing here. Metcalf may still be able to win SAG, but Janney is obviously very beloved too. Likewise Dafoe may be able to win there, but it seems unlikely to me now given how much the industry loves Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Best Actress might still be a toss-up depending if SAG actually awards TBOEM, 2 individual awards + ensemble, but I think McDormand probably clenched the win for everything with her awesome Globes speech. The parallel between both supporting categories is striking in that they were both led by the indie critical darling for a while but then the tide started to turn in favor of the "overdue" Hollywood side-player.
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Post by AKenjiB on Jan 9, 2018 19:17:47 GMT
Really happy for Denis Villeneuve!
That said, damn, nothing for Armie Hammer? So he got in at critic’s choice and the golden globes, but not SAG or BAFTA. I really hope he still gets nominated at the Oscars.
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Post by bob-coppola on Jan 9, 2018 19:54:07 GMT
I think the Gerwig snubs here and at the Globes, specially after the Portman declaration, can actually benefit her at the Oscars. There's a building narrative on media of women being excluded from the BD line-ups in a year of plenty of women-directed movies to choose. Maybe some part of Hollywood can rally for Gerwig the same way they did with Argo when Affleck was snubbed.
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Post by marvelass on Jan 9, 2018 20:34:54 GMT
Really happy for Denis Villeneuve! That said, damn, nothing for Armie Hammer? So he got in at critic’s choice and the golden globes, but not SAG or BAFTA. I really hope he still gets nominated at the Oscars. Harrelson got SAG and BAFTA, but missed out on BFCA and GG. Furthermore, the last time the Academy nominated more than one actor in Supporting for the same film was for BUGSY in 1991. I knew that would be a problem for Hammer and Stuhlbarg when many people were predicting them both at the beginning. But it looks like Stuhlbarg is out, so that's not a problem for Hammer anymore. However, it is for Harrelson, because Sam Rockwell is definitely a lock for a nod. (God, I hope I got the names right!)
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Post by marvelass on Jan 9, 2018 20:40:04 GMT
It's a co-US/British production, not entirely British. Paddington 2 and The Death of Stalin, also nominated in this category, are also co-productions with other countries. Doesn't seem to be an issue. Gravity won it a few years ago, and I don't think anyone would associate that with the UK before they do with the US and Mexico. Why wasn't Dunkirk nominated for Best British Film? That was also a co-UK/US/etc. production.
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Post by Zeb31 on Jan 9, 2018 20:59:57 GMT
Huh? All those actors were going to be nominated by BAFTA, so why do you think their nominations mean they're now the front runners? It's just how Get Out, Lady Bird, and even Dunkirk underperformed, while they obviously loved Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and The Shape of Water. With Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri doing so well at the Globes, and probably doing very well with nominations and SAG, and now with BAFTA really loving it, I don't think that Get Out and Lady Bird can come back. While The Shape of Water didn't get that SAG Cast nomination, it's still done very well overall compared to Dunkirk even at BAFTA which everyone all season has said was going to be where Dunkirk would rule. Further, Dafoe and Metcalf were nominated here as expected, it doesn't help that their competition's films overperformed while their film's underperformed, and so I don't see Janney and Rockwell losing here. Metcalf may still be able to win SAG, but Janney is obviously very beloved too. Likewise Dafoe may be able to win there, but it seems unlikely to me now given how much the industry loves Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Best Actress might still be a toss-up depending if SAG actually awards TBOEM, 2 individual awards + ensemble, but I think McDormand probably clenched the win for everything with her awesome Globes speech. Solid points all around. I don't think anything can be completely sewn up before the guilds announce their winners (or even after that, if we're being literal here), but the presumed frontrunners all got big boosts today. Call Me by Your Name may have considerably better reviews than Darkest Hour, but the BAFTA noms showed there's genuine appreciation for the latter beyond just Oldman's performance, which will be a great help. It's a nice back after the PGA snub, even if it doesn't guarantee a BP nom. BAFTA seems to be as in love with Three Billboards as every other industry group so far, judging by its surprising Cinematography mention and double Supporting Actor nods (mirroring the SAG overperformance). McDormand is looking very likely here, especially since Lady Bird underwhelmed. Shersha's still very much in the race and could take SAG, but I'm not betting on that yet. Speaking of Three Billboards rising and Lady Bird stumbling, things are looking bright for Rockwell (especially since Dafoe is The Florida Project's only BAFTA nod) and not too bright for Metcalf (who doesn't seem terribly likely to trump Janney here, given the unexpected love for I, Tonya at 5 nominations), which could point to a repeat of the Globe's Supporting winners. And finally, The Shape of Water leading the pack with 12 nods and fitting the mold as the year's tech marvel means Del Toro is perhaps the best bet we have right now for Director. So yeah, nothing's sewn up, but it's looking a little clearer than before with Globe-winning (and BAFTA-loved) favorites in each of the top 6 categories.
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Post by Zeb31 on Jan 9, 2018 21:08:37 GMT
Paddington 2 and The Death of Stalin, also nominated in this category, are also co-productions with other countries. Doesn't seem to be an issue. Gravity won it a few years ago, and I don't think anyone would associate that with the UK before they do with the US and Mexico. Why wasn't Dunkirk nominated for Best British Film? That was also a co-UK/US/etc. production. Because it's not really the best British film of the year I don't know, it's a weird category. BAFTA members are definitely not looking at their individual top 10s for BP and then Googling which of those titles qualify as British before they cast their votes in this category. That's how we get big frontrunners like Three Billboards and Gravity nominated alongside small indies like Lady Macbeth and God's Own Country.
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Post by Zeb31 on Jan 9, 2018 22:05:29 GMT
Couple more points to add here before I forget. This Blade Runner love pleases me greatly. Hoping the Academy follows suit. Also, Dench missing here is a pretty big deal, considering a BAFTA nod was considered a given after she showed up at SAG. Hers is exactly the kind of performance you'd think her compatriots would eat up, especially over an alternative that was perceived to be much weaker than her. Might be a sign that Victoria & Abdul is flagging, as it was expected to at this point given the tepid reviews and September release. As for Bening, this is certainly a welcome surprise for her, but I just don't see Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool crashing the Oscar party when its critical reception has hardly been stellar either and Sony Classics released it in US theaters like four hours ago (to muted BO returns, no less). Conversely, it's been out in the UK for almost two whole months at this point, which explains how it got enough visibility to perform as it did today, but there's no reason to believe it'll have enough passion among American voters to crack the Actress lineup when it's flown under the radar the whole season, nor that it'll have enough time now to catch up. Oddly enough, Bell sneaking in would surprise me less than Bening doing the same. If anything, I think Dench (the presumed #6 up until now) faltering and missing in favor of someone who's also very weak in the race benefits Chastain, who's emerging as the best outlier to spoil the consensus top five (and whose film came out in the UK eight days ago, according to IMDB, which explains the BAFTA miss). Molly's Game is peaking right now and is clearly playing better than expected to the industry, given its overperformance in the past few weeks. Ballots are out just as it's showing up in unexpected places (the WGA nom was a given, but the ACE Eddie and especially the PGA nod were not) and doing well at the box-office (unlike Steve Jobs, which also had a strong limited run, Molly didn't collapse when it went wide and is posting solid numbers). Plus, Chastain and Sorkin are out there working the circuit like crazy, and Hammond hints in his latest column that the film is "very well-liked" and that people are responding well to their public appearances. I'm not predicting her to break in because the top five look too strong to overtake right now, but I'd say she's firmly in 6th at this point and seems to be the likeliest to pull a Ruth Negga and benefit from a shocking last-minute snub. Probably something like this: 1. McDormand 2. Ronan 3. Robbie 4. Streep/Hawkins 6. Chastain 7. Dench 8. Bening
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