viacom1
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Post by viacom1 on Jan 8, 2018 4:27:26 GMT
Several bloggers & pundits are coming to an agreement that 4 contenders (Oldman, Chalamet, Franco, Kaluuya) are all considered to be safe bets at this point.
Right now the final spot is between 3 men (Day-Lewis, Hanks, Washington). But only one of them can sneak in. Who do you think it will be?
Or, do you disagree with the bloggers/pundits & think that one of the 4 "safe" actors will end up missing out a la Gyllenhaal in Nightcrawler or Swinton in WNTTAK?
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doodle
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Post by doodle on Jan 8, 2018 4:31:23 GMT
Day-Lewis. Kaluuya losing tonight worries me a little bit.
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Post by quetee on Jan 8, 2018 4:37:08 GMT
Denzel is not happening.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 8, 2018 4:56:16 GMT
I think it'll be those four + Day Lewis. No way is Washington getting in and Hanks being picked over DDL's supposedly final role would surprise me.
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Jan 8, 2018 5:10:07 GMT
Yeah, Day-Lewis. Roman J. Israel, Esq. faded fast, and Hanks probably needed The Post to do better to sneak in.
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Post by Kirk-Picard on Jan 8, 2018 12:10:49 GMT
Day-Lewis sadly
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 8, 2018 12:14:27 GMT
I wouldn't consider Franco and Kaluuya locks yet. Likely, yes, but one of them could easily miss.
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Post by alexanderblanchett on Jan 8, 2018 15:05:03 GMT
Personally I think Day-Lewis is saver than Franco.
I think it will be like this:
- Oldman
- Chalamet
- Kaluuya
- Day-Lewis
- Franco/Hanks
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Post by HELENA MARIA on Jan 8, 2018 15:06:36 GMT
DDL for sure !
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Jan 8, 2018 15:20:43 GMT
I don't think Franco and Kaluuya are locks yet. I suspect Get Out will underperform heavily, Kaluuya hasn't been that exposed and I given how rarely the nominate young actors in the category, I think Chalamet will be their only bet. I've suspected for a while now that Franco might get a horde of abuse accusations his way, and now those rumors are becoming more and more likely. Don't see Washington getting in at all, are people even aware that he's in contention?
While you can't rule out a major snub, I think Day-Lewis is getting in. Hanks keeps feeling unlikely but you never know what will happen in the following week... I definitely think Franco will go out (and I also think his performance is awful and it's a joke he's being considered for an Oscar but I'm clearly in the minority) and so the Academy might want to award Hanks, a reliable, good guy for "an important film", with a nomination.
Call it a gut feeling, call it an awful prediction but I'm gonna go with...
Oldman
Chalamet
Day-Lewis
Hanks
Kaluuya sneaks in 5th...
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Post by stephen on Jan 8, 2018 15:28:42 GMT
I think Day-Lewis is comfortably in third right now behind Oldman and Chalamet. I think Franco's stock may very well fall in the coming days, right in the thick of Oscar voting, and while I expect him to still get in, there is a very good chance he could miss out entirely. Kaluuya's Globe loss seems less severe in that light, and I do think that with Get Out's run, he still gets in (and I expect him to make it at BAFTA, as they love their local chaps). I actually think Franco and Hanks might be contending for the fifth slot now; if Franco's support weakens in the face of his accusations, the golden boy that is Tom Hanks might swoop in.
For now, I still suspect it'll be Chalamet/DDL/Franco/Kaluuya/Oldman.
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Post by wallsofjericho on Jan 8, 2018 15:34:08 GMT
DDL. I predicting Franco for now but we'll see how this story progresses.
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Post by countjohn on Jan 9, 2018 7:55:08 GMT
Both DDL and Hanks get in, no to Kaluuya
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 9, 2018 10:53:38 GMT
Kaluuya got SAG, Globes, Critics' Choice and BAFTA. He might be that actor who gets snubbed after hitting all the precursors but I don't bet on that.
My five are Oldman, Chalamet, Day-Lewis, Franco and Kaluuya.
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Post by stephen on Jan 9, 2018 13:02:24 GMT
Franco missing BAFTA at the crucial time of Oscar voting in the midst of his controversy is a hell of a red flag. Also expect there to be some backlash against BAFTA for Get Out missing the big prizes, which I'm sure helps Kaluuya's case.
Oldman, Chalamet, Day-Lewis and Kaluuya are your top four. The fifth spot is up for grabs.
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 9, 2018 13:54:46 GMT
Franco missing BAFTA at the crucial time of Oscar voting in the midst of his controversy is a hell of a red flag. Also expect there to be some backlash against BAFTA for Get Out missing the big prizes, which I'm sure helps Kaluuya's case. Oldman, Chalamet, Day-Lewis and Kaluuya are your top four. The fifth spot is up for grabs. I don't know, I kind of expected Franco to miss BAFTA. |
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Post by stephen on Jan 9, 2018 14:05:11 GMT
Franco missing BAFTA at the crucial time of Oscar voting in the midst of his controversy is a hell of a red flag. Also expect there to be some backlash against BAFTA for Get Out missing the big prizes, which I'm sure helps Kaluuya's case. Oldman, Chalamet, Day-Lewis and Kaluuya are your top four. The fifth spot is up for grabs. I don't know, I kind of expected Franco to miss BAFTA. It's not surprising he missed (it's not their sort of film/performance). What it does show is a general lack of support from that bloc come nomination time, and with Oscar voting only partly done by the time the rumor mill regarding Franco really began to buzz, it could show that he is much more vulnerable than initially thought. Oldman's in, Chalamet's in, Day-Lewis is probably in, and Kaluuya has hit all of the necessary precursors, so he's probably in. Franco missing here + his brewing controversy are a bad combo to have right now. The question is, if people aren't willing to put down his name, whose do they replace it with? |
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 9, 2018 14:13:02 GMT
I don't know, I kind of expected Franco to miss BAFTA. It's not surprising he missed (it's not their sort of film/performance). What it does show is a general lack of support from that bloc come nomination time, and with Oscar voting only partly done by the time the rumor mill regarding Franco really began to buzz, it could show that he is much more vulnerable than initially thought. Oldman's in, Chalamet's in, Day-Lewis is probably in, and Kaluuya has hit all of the necessary precursors, so he's probably in. Franco missing here + his brewing controversy are a bad combo to have right now. The question is, if people aren't willing to put down his name, whose do they replace it with? Yep, that's the big question. Hanks seems like such a long shot, right now. And Gyllenhall has been toast for a while. Denzel again? He had a strong movie last year, and he directed himself; he's disappeared now. |
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Jan 9, 2018 16:11:23 GMT
Franco isn't safe with the controversy brewing. Though it started to take off day 4 of 8 in Oscar voting - so who knows how much it will affect him.
Problem is the 6th spot seems so weak. The Post hasn't been doing well. Gyllenhaal seems like an afterthought.
I guess I can see Denzel sneaking in.
I'm going with
1. Oldman
2. Chalamet
3. Kaluuya
4. DDL
5. Hanks
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 9, 2018 16:57:32 GMT
ddl is comfortably in #2-3 rn (shared with timmy) but i could've just as easily see him get adams'd had the competition been stronger. for now tho, it's actually hanks, franco and kayuula fighting for #4 and #5
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Jan 9, 2018 19:25:09 GMT
Post-BAFTA and post-scandal update: Franco isn't safe with the controversy brewing. Though it started to take off day 4 of 8 in Oscar voting - so who knows how much it will affect him. Yeah, he's not safe anymore. This story (now that there are actual articles out there beyond just rumors and tweets) broke too late in the game to rule him out for sure, but he's in danger. I'd say he's 5th right now, and the four who are safe are Oldman, Chalamet, Kaluuya and Day-Lewis. In hindsight, the BAFTA snub shows Franco was always vulnerable, though then again, so is Hanks, so it'll be interesting to watch this play out. |
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Post by stephen on Jan 9, 2018 19:27:12 GMT
Post-BAFTA and post-scandal update: Franco isn't safe with the controversy brewing. Though it started to take off day 4 of 8 in Oscar voting - so who knows how much it will affect him. Yeah, he's not safe anymore. This story (now that there are actual articles out there beyond just rumors and tweets) broke too late in the game to rule him out for sure, but he's in danger. I'd say he's 5th right now, and the four who are safe are Oldman, Chalamet, Kaluuya and Day-Lewis. In hindsight, the BAFTA snub shows Franco was always vulnerable, though then again, so is Hanks, so it'll be interesting to watch this play out. This shit wouldn't be a problem if they fucking watched Lucky. |
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