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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 7, 2018 19:32:31 GMT
Last year at this (close to it anyway) time, people had settled into Denzel winning his 3rd because he won SAG (and that's basically it along with a few smaller critics groups) even though that was completely counter intuitive to what we usually say. Still, I would say going into Oscar night the peeps on Oscar buzz had him as the favorite(?!?). Who do you think is somebody at this point that were overestimating for a nod at least, we can always worry about the win later  Is this not a year like that - like is everyone pretty comfortable in the picks? I kind of think Hammer and Stuhlbarg may be left out in Supporting. Both of them, seriously. I don't know if I'd predict that.........but it wouldn't shock me. What sayeth ye? Who are we overestimating and in what category? |
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Post by stephen on Jan 7, 2018 19:47:29 GMT
As is the case every year, I think people get way too wrapped up in critical prizes and don't realize that a.) they have almost no bearing at all on the industry prizes, b.) the tastes of both groups can be different, and c.) certain films/performances are tailored to each group's general sensibilities. Critics' prizes are great to have in terms of momentum because they can be used to shape an "undeniable narrative" when it comes time for things like the Globes, SAG and BAFTA.
As for individual awards, I think that people are overestimating Robbie. I think she gets nominated, but I think she's fourth at best in the race. I can't see her winning against the likes of Ronan, McDormand or even Hawkins at this rate. This is her "welcome to the club" nomination, and she can use it to bolster goodwill for a win later on down the line (probably for a weaker performance than this). I also agree that there is a strong chance Hammer and Stuhlbarg miss; I'm certainly not expecting both to get in, and with both missing SAG (which should've at least gotten one in over Carell if there had been as much love for it as people thought there might be), there's a very good chance that if they miss BAFTA, they both miss entirely. Call Me By Your Name got revived a bit with PGA, but I think there is a very strong chance it only gets in for Picture, Actor, Adapted Screenplay and maybe Song (I'm actually kinda surprised some pundits are predicting Stevens to miss out). For now, I predict one of them to get in (Hammer, probably) along with Dafoe, Rockwell, Harrelson and Jenkins.
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Jan 7, 2018 21:22:40 GMT
Eh, I honestly don't think there's any real widespread delusion here this year. People on MARedux are usually pretty reasonable and less rabidly stannish than IMDB or AwardsWatch. AW in particular is terrible when it comes to delusion. Way too many people there let their personal opinions affect their judgment, both positively (my fave is totally winning, you hoes) and negatively (no one cares about this flop). I mean, some AWers still had Daniela Vega in their top 5 for Best Actress as late as last month. Compared to that, folks here are pretty solid. I don't think anything I've seen is unjustifiable except maaaaybe Streep missing because of Weinstein backlash. But then again, I was one of the people predicting a Washington upset last year, so maybe we're just working in different wavelengths.  |
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Post by stephen on Jan 7, 2018 21:25:55 GMT
But then again, I was one of the people predicting a Washington upset last year, so maybe we're just working in different wavelengths. I genuinely think that if voting has lasted a few more weeks, there might've been a very good chance the Affleck backlash would've pushed Washington over him. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 7, 2018 21:37:13 GMT
The biggest delusion is (and I suppose will always be...) that Oscar prognostication is an exact science. Precursors are important, yes, but I'm always incredibly annoyed by something like "The Florida Project missed PGA, it's dead." And this happens after every single "important" awards body announces their notices, even when it's several weeks before Oscar voters even begin filling out their ballots.
Not exactly what you're looking for, but it needs to be said...
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Post by FrancescoAbides on Jan 7, 2018 21:44:46 GMT
I also think that Arnie Hammer will get snubbed...but replaced by Michael Stuhlbarg. I think we are kinda overestimating Lady Bird for some reason. The film just feels too...indie, and yes, I know the Academy is changing and all, but I just don't see the movie to be this powerhouse in terms of awards, it's just a feeling though
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Jan 8, 2018 1:50:50 GMT
I think we are kinda overestimating Lady Bird for some reason. The film just feels too...indie, and yes, I know the Academy is changing and all, but I just don't see the movie to be this powerhouse in terms of awards, it's just a feeling though Yes, obviously we need to see how Lady Bird fares at the Globes tonight but I too suspect that Lady Bird will underperform (Get Out too). I think it will get in most of the major categories it's nominated for (but possibly one big snub too -- counting on directing right now) but won't win more than one award tops. I think, right now, that McDormand has a bigger chance than Ronan (even she's a two time nominee and seems like breaking at the exact same time, it's just so... small) and suspect she'll only gain steam. Maybe I'm just projecting, because I think it's massively overrated and hope it won't make a big dent... (same goes for Get Out) |
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Jan 8, 2018 6:26:10 GMT
I think we are kinda overestimating Lady Bird for some reason. The film just feels too...indie, and yes, I know the Academy is changing and all, but I just don't see the movie to be this powerhouse in terms of awards, it's just a feeling though Yes, obviously we need to see how Lady Bird fares at the Globes tonight but I too suspect that Lady Bird will underperform (Get Out too). I think it will get in most of the major categories it's nominated for (but possibly one big snub too -- counting on directing right now) but won't win more than one award tops. I think, right now, that McDormand has a bigger chance than Ronan (even she's a two time nominee and seems like breaking at the exact same time, it's just so... small) and suspect she'll only gain steam. Maybe I'm just projecting, because I think it's massively overrated and hope it won't make a big dent... (same goes for Get Out) I actually think Lady Bird is the frontrunner right now. Not your typically year. |
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 9, 2018 10:46:01 GMT
I was part of the "Get Out for Best Picture" movement but I'm afraid I was delusional indeed.
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