The-Havok
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Doing pretty good so far
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Post by The-Havok on Jan 5, 2018 21:56:01 GMT
I, Tonya statistical trajectory is similar to Dallas Buyers Club's four years ago, minus the SAG Ensemble nod. Janney could easily win SAG and Robbie's roll/performance does seem like the kind of stuff they'd love to award. I believe she is a really good bet for the Comedy Globe as well. If she gets nominated for the BAFTA, I don't really think there's a higher chance there for a win there unless BAFTA hops into the hype bandwagon as per usual.
SAG + Musical/Comedy Globe (minus BAFTA in the case of Lawrence, Paltrow and Helen Hunt) can be a killer combo as Stone, Lawrence, Witherspoon, Paltrow, Hunt all have shown us
Besides, she can push for the fresh A-lister narrative that helped Lawrence, Larson, and Stone to win (I'd argue she is a bigger star than the last two).
I, Tonya gets a BP, Screenplay and Editing nod; Robbie and Janney can upset. If both score with the SAG, it's game over for Hawkins. Hawkins better be praying that she doesn't lose the SAG. As of now, I think Actress is going like:
Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billings Outside Ebbing Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post
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Post by FrancescoAbides on Jan 5, 2018 22:06:01 GMT
Can, won't
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Post by stephen on Jan 5, 2018 22:34:04 GMT
I'm getting more Wild vibes than Dallas Buyers Club. McConaughey had one of the best banner years in cinema history, and Leto cleaned up shop with the critics. Robbie's still a relative newbie against other, more established names, and while Janney is revered, Metcalf is proving a ferocious opponent and has been sweeping more readily. Hell, I'd be inclined to say Lady Bird is more analogous to Dallas Buyers Club, as I buy the idea of that duo winning much more easily than I do Robbie/Janney.
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The-Havok
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Doing pretty good so far
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Post by The-Havok on Jan 5, 2018 23:40:31 GMT
I'm getting more Wild vibes than Dallas Buyers Club. McConaughey had one of the best banner years in cinema history, and Leto cleaned up shop with the critics. Robbie's still a relative newbie against other, more established names, and while Janney is revered, Metcalf is proving a ferocious opponent and has been sweeping more readily. Hell, I'd be inclined to say Lady Bird is more analogous to Dallas Buyers Club, as I buy the idea of that duo winning much more easily than I do Robbie/Janney. Still don't see how the meme of McConaughey having a banner year affected his SAG win. Considering he was flopping with critics unlike someone like Jessica Chastain back in 2011. Robbie is a newbie yes but that hasn't really stopped anyone from winning. Might as well use that argument for Chalamet who is probably winning now that Darkest Hour looks dead in the water. Metcalf is a literal who compared to Janney. Lady Bird doesn't have Editing nor Makeup. You can only use the two acting categories if you want it to make an analogy. Wild didn't have half of the accolades and hype I, Tonya is getting right now. |
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 6, 2018 2:26:19 GMT
wait, so you have Ronan fourth?  |
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Post by alexanderblanchett on Jan 6, 2018 22:10:49 GMT
Yeah, its the kind of role they adore.
Also they love to give it to "new stars" once in a while…
She fits the bill and I predicted her even before the beginning of the season … so yeah I can totally see it happen.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 7, 2018 17:48:23 GMT
I, Tonya statistical trajectory is similar to Dallas Buyers Club's four years ago, minus the SAG Ensemble nod. Janney could easily win SAG and Robbie's roll/performance does seem like the kind of stuff they'd love to award. I believe she is a really good bet for the Comedy Globe as well. If she gets nominated for the BAFTA, I don't really think there's a higher chance there for a win there unless BAFTA hops into the hype bandwagon as per usual. SAG + Musical/Comedy Globe (minus BAFTA in the case of Lawrence, Paltrow and Helen Hunt) can be a killer combo as Stone, Lawrence, Witherspoon, Paltrow, Hunt all have shown us Besides, she can push for the fresh A-lister narrative that helped Lawrence, Larson, and Stone to win (I'd argue she is a bigger star than the last two). I, Tonya gets a BP, Screenplay and Editing nod; Robbie and Janney can upset. If both score with the SAG, it's game over for Hawkins. Hawkins better be praying that she doesn't lose the SAG. As of now, I think Actress is going like: Sally Hawkins, The Shape of WaterFrances McDormand, Three Billings Outside Ebbing Missouri Margot Robbie, I, TonyaSaoirse Ronan, Lady BirdMeryl Streep, The Post Mcconaughey was an A-list movie star who won BFCA, GG, SAG. If AMPAS was going to award a young ingenue, it would be Saorise Ronan - who will be on her 3rd nomination. She is practically a lock to win the Globe. Lady Bird will also be a much bigger player than I, Tonya with Oscar. |
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Post by akittystang on Jan 7, 2018 18:01:08 GMT
If she wins the Comedy Globe tonight I think she very well may take SAG as well.
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lee
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Post by lee on Jan 7, 2018 18:21:50 GMT
She deserves it
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Post by pessimusreincarnated on Jan 7, 2018 18:35:09 GMT
Upset? I thought she was basically the frontrunner.
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Jan 7, 2018 18:44:20 GMT
If she wins the Comedy Globe tonight I think she very well may take SAG as well. Robbie and Ronan would benefit tremendously from Streep winning Drama, which is totally within reach. They can capitalize on that buzz to take SAG and pull ahead of the rest, which Streep can't. If MacDormand or Hawkins win, it's a different story. |
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Post by akittystang on Jan 7, 2018 18:52:40 GMT
McDormand has already one the Best Actress SAG Award once. No actress has been able to pull it off twice...so I think if McDormand wins, Ronan or Robbie's chances are still greater than another McDormand SAG win.
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Post by stephen on Jan 7, 2018 19:00:07 GMT
McDormand has already one the Best Actress SAG Award once. No actress has been able to pull it off twice...so I think if McDormand wins, Ronan or Robbie's chances are still greater than another McDormand SAG win. I still think Ronan's winning (the stars are just aligning in the right way for her), but McDormand commands immense respect in the industry and her last SAG win (for film) was twenty-one years ago, and eventually that statistic is going to be broken, and McDormand could certainly be the one to do it, especially as her film did exceptionally well with SAG. |
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Post by therealcomicman117 on Jan 7, 2018 19:00:54 GMT
It's certainly possible. Don't think she takes it, but I wouldn't be surprised if she won it either.
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Jan 7, 2018 19:18:09 GMT
McDormand has already one the Best Actress SAG Award once. No actress has been able to pull it off twice...so I think if McDormand wins, Ronan or Robbie's chances are still greater than another McDormand SAG win. I don't think that stat would hold McDormand back at all, to be honest. They're still a relatively recent group with only 22 years of history, so it's not a huge sampling pool to draw from, and when you look at the Academy's choices from that same time period, only Hilary Swank managed to win lead twice. She lost the SAG to Bening in 1999, but in that case you can point to the fact that Boys Don't Cry was a tiny indie while American Beauty was a behemoth that also won Ensemble and Best Actor. Same goes for Streep, who probably came close in 2011 but lost out to Davis in another box-office hit that won Ensemble plus a second individual category in addition to Best Actress. That accounts for the SAG stat, and explains why we've had no two-time lead winners so far. Also worth keeping in mind that Three Billboards overperformed here and had enough pull to get two supporting men nominated, which shows McDormand will have plenty of support. |
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jan 7, 2018 19:29:28 GMT
I think it's definitely going to be a toss-up between McDormand and Ronan, with Ronan having the edge and Robbie having a distant, outside chance of an upset. What'll be working against her is that the Academy is likely going to resonate much more with Lady Bird and Three Billboards than they will with I Tonya, and if that's the case, Robbie will be facing up against two acclaimed performances from BP frontrunners. Shape of Water will get a lot of support too, but I still have Robbie over her because Robbie's is a much more showy and charismatic role, and the kind the Academy loves to honor (she would be a shoo-in for frontrunner in a less crowded year). Even so, Robbie's going to have a hell of a hard time defeating the Ronan and McDormand juggernauts.
tl/dr:
TOSS-UP
1. Ronan
2. McDormand
POSSIBLE UPSET
3. Robbie
LESS LIKELY UPSET BUT STILL POSSIBLE
4. Hawkins
Streep's almost definitely taking that fifth nomination, but this won't be her year.
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morton
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Post by morton on Jan 7, 2018 20:25:44 GMT
I, Tonya statistical trajectory is similar to Dallas Buyers Club's four years ago, minus the SAG Ensemble nod. Janney could easily win SAG and Robbie's roll/performance does seem like the kind of stuff they'd love to award. I believe she is a really good bet for the Comedy Globe as well. If she gets nominated for the BAFTA, I don't really think there's a higher chance there for a win there unless BAFTA hops into the hype bandwagon as per usual. SAG + Musical/Comedy Globe (minus BAFTA in the case of Lawrence, Paltrow and Helen Hunt) can be a killer combo as Stone, Lawrence, Witherspoon, Paltrow, Hunt all have shown us Besides, she can push for the fresh A-lister narrative that helped Lawrence, Larson, and Stone to win (I'd argue she is a bigger star than the last two). I, Tonya gets a BP, Screenplay and Editing nod; Robbie and Janney can upset. If both score with the SAG, it's game over for Hawkins. Hawkins better be praying that she doesn't lose the SAG. As of now, I think Actress is going like: Sally Hawkins, The Shape of WaterFrances McDormand, Three Billings Outside Ebbing Missouri Margot Robbie, I, TonyaSaoirse Ronan, Lady BirdMeryl Streep, The Post Mcconaughey was an A-list movie star who won BFCA, GG, SAG. If AMPAS was going to award a young ingenue, it would be Saorise Ronan - who will be on her 3rd nomination. She is practically a lock to win the Globe. Lady Bird will also be a much bigger player than I, Tonya with Oscar. Yes, at one time I thought Robbie might be able to win because I didn't think that Lady Bird would ever be this strong, and Hawkins seemed like atypical winner and I thought Robbie could have the right narrative to win over former winners McDormand and Streep. I, Tonya has done well with the guilds, but I think it lost too much ground with the critics' awards and with the other likely Best Actress nominees' films doing well with the guilds too except for The Post. If she wins the Comedy Globe tonight I think she very well may take SAG as well. Robbie and Ronan would benefit tremendously from Streep winning Drama, which is totally within reach. They can capitalize on that buzz to take SAG and pull ahead of the rest, which Streep can't. If MacDormand or Hawkins win, it's a different story. It's probably between Hawkins and McDormand, but I wouldn't completely rule out Streep winning tonight since they do love her, and the Globes is one of the few places where The Post actually did well. I agree though if Streep does win there, it would be great for whomever wins the C/M Globe since that means Hawkins's and McDormand's momentum will take a hit. |
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 7, 2018 23:00:35 GMT
A negative for McDormand is going to be her age. It is rare that an actress wins at 60 - unless they are Meryl Streep or undeniable like Helen Mirren who swept the pre-cursors. And she isn't overdue since she has already won.
If she looses SAG, I think she's done. Because BAFTA likely is going to be between Hawkins and Ronan.
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Post by HELENA MARIA on Jan 7, 2018 23:02:24 GMT
Ain't happening  |
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Post by stephen on Jan 7, 2018 23:13:22 GMT
A negative for McDormand is going to be her age. It is rare that an actress wins at 60 - unless they are Meryl Streep or undeniable like Helen Mirren who swept the pre-cursors. And she isn't overdue since she has already won. If she looses SAG, I think she's done. Because BAFTA likely is going to be between Hawkins and Ronan. Don't be so sure of that. Martin McDonagh is a national treasure in the UK; it's very conceivable BAFTA goes very hard for his film. |
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Post by hugobolso1 on Jan 9, 2018 2:41:52 GMT
In a normal year the booby blond was by too far the win. But Weinstein Scandal beneficiated McDormand and Ronan. Still Robbie could win at the end, the race just started. But also could be snub in the last minute. I think Chastain could be the last minute 5 spot.-
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Post by MoonShadow on Jan 9, 2018 6:29:27 GMT
I highly doubt it!
The nomination is going to her only reward.
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