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Post by stephen on Jan 5, 2018 17:26:26 GMT
Eleven nominees for the big prize. Darkest Hour takes a hit (although expect BAFTA to return the favor by going gaga for it) and Call Me By Your Name gets a fresh breath of guild support. This also speaks to a potential surprise strength in I, Tonya.
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Post by wallsofjericho on Jan 5, 2018 17:29:39 GMT
Even with 11 nominees Darkest Hour misses.
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The-Havok
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Post by The-Havok on Jan 5, 2018 17:35:35 GMT
A damn shame BR2049 missed. I guess Aaron Sorkin must be a better director than Denis.
Happy for Snyder though!
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Post by FrancescoAbides on Jan 5, 2018 17:37:16 GMT
Wonder Woman....this year's Deadpool No Blade Runner 2049? this is bullshit
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Post by theycallmemrfish on Jan 5, 2018 17:42:51 GMT
A damn shame BR2049 missed. I guess Aaron Sorkin must be a better director than Denis. Happy for Snyder though! That would be the DGA not the PGA.
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Post by pessimusreincarnated on Jan 5, 2018 17:45:21 GMT
Darkest Hour is deeeeead. The Post and CMBYN definitely received a boost. I, Tonya and The Big Sick are now legit contenders. I say one of them makes the BP lineup. Molly's Game and Wonder Woman seem to be the outliers here, they probably won't show up anywhere else.
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Post by stephen on Jan 5, 2018 17:49:27 GMT
Darkest Hour is deeeeead. The Post and CMBYN definitely received a boost. I, Tonya and The Big Sick are now legit contenders. I say one of them makes the BP lineup. Molly's Game and Wonder Woman seem to be the outliers here, they probably won't show up anywhere else. Don't count out Molly's Game. Sorkin could still get in and Chastain is working that circuit like crazy. I wouldn't be surprised to see it clear that 5% hurdle and get a random Picture nomination, especially if its flashy editing scores a nomination as well. Really delighted to see The Big Sick get some love. The Globes screwed the pooch on that one.
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Post by pessimusreincarnated on Jan 5, 2018 17:52:39 GMT
Darkest Hour is deeeeead. The Post and CMBYN definitely received a boost. I, Tonya and The Big Sick are now legit contenders. I say one of them makes the BP lineup. Molly's Game and Wonder Woman seem to be the outliers here, they probably won't show up anywhere else. Don't count out Molly's Game. Sorkin could still get in and Chastain is working that circuit like crazy. I wouldn't be surprised to see it clear that 5% hurdle and get a random Picture nomination, especially if its flashy editing scores a nomination as well. Really delighted to see The Big Sick get some love. The Globes screwed the pooch on that one. Oh I definitely think Sorkin is getting a screenplay nom (justice for his Steve Jobs snub!), but in terms of BP, I just don't really see it. Maybe if they nominate 10 movies? Chastain's campaigning may pay off but I still think she's in sixth place right now. The Best Actress category seems more or less locked up at the moment with Robbie, McDormand, Hawkins, Ronan, and Streep.
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Post by stephen on Jan 5, 2018 17:55:02 GMT
Don't count out Molly's Game. Sorkin could still get in and Chastain is working that circuit like crazy. I wouldn't be surprised to see it clear that 5% hurdle and get a random Picture nomination, especially if its flashy editing scores a nomination as well. Really delighted to see The Big Sick get some love. The Globes screwed the pooch on that one. Oh I definitely think Sorkin is getting a screenplay nom (justice for his Steve Jobs snub!), but in terms of BP, I just don't really see it. Maybe if they nominate 10 movies? Chastain's campaigning may pay off but I still think she's in sixth place right now. The Best Actress category seems more or less locked up at the moment with Robbie, McDormand, Hawkins, Ronan, and Streep. Oh, I don't think Chastain breaks in unless something utterly unforeseen happens (like if BAFTA suddenly lost their shit over Molly's Game, let's say, or if Hawkins somehow missed Amy Adams-style). But with as scattershot as this year has been, with only five firm candidates really sticking hard to Best Picture and the others being passion picks, stranger things have happened.
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Post by Christ_Ian_Bale on Jan 5, 2018 18:02:42 GMT
Oh fuck off.
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Post by MoonShadow on Jan 5, 2018 18:14:56 GMT
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doodle
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Post by doodle on Jan 5, 2018 18:25:32 GMT
RIP to Darkest Hour, Blade Runner 2049, The Florida Project and Logan
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Post by Deleted on Jan 5, 2018 18:29:44 GMT
Guys, was Darkest Hour even eligible here? It's a UK production with no US involvement. Oh, and...
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Post by Allenism on Jan 5, 2018 18:30:12 GMT
Don't count out Molly's Game. Sorkin could still get in and Chastain is working that circuit like crazy. I wouldn't be surprised to see it clear that 5% hurdle and get a random Picture nomination, especially if its flashy editing scores a nomination as well. Really delighted to see The Big Sick get some love. The Globes screwed the pooch on that one. Oh I definitely think Sorkin is getting a screenplay nom (justice for his Steve Jobs snub!), but in terms of BP, I just don't really see it. Maybe if they nominate 10 movies? Chastain's campaigning may pay off but I still think she's in sixth place right now. The Best Actress category seems more or less locked up at the moment with Robbie, McDormand, Hawkins, Ronan, and Streep. My gut is telling me that this is going to be the blue-moon of a year where Streep misses. Historically this is a foolish prognostication but it just feels like her shine has dulled a bit with the Weinstein thing.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 5, 2018 18:30:57 GMT
Oh I definitely think Sorkin is getting a screenplay nom (justice for his Steve Jobs snub!), but in terms of BP, I just don't really see it. Maybe if they nominate 10 movies? Chastain's campaigning may pay off but I still think she's in sixth place right now. The Best Actress category seems more or less locked up at the moment with Robbie, McDormand, Hawkins, Ronan, and Streep. My gut is telling me that this is going to be the blue-moon of a year where Streep misses. Historically this is a foolish prognostication but it just feels like her shine has dulled a bit with the Weinstein thing. It would be Judi Dench who would replace her, though.
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Post by stephen on Jan 5, 2018 18:34:33 GMT
Oh I definitely think Sorkin is getting a screenplay nom (justice for his Steve Jobs snub!), but in terms of BP, I just don't really see it. Maybe if they nominate 10 movies? Chastain's campaigning may pay off but I still think she's in sixth place right now. The Best Actress category seems more or less locked up at the moment with Robbie, McDormand, Hawkins, Ronan, and Streep. My gut is telling me that this is going to be the blue-moon of a year where Streep misses. Historically this is a foolish prognostication but it just feels like her shine has dulled a bit with the Weinstein thing. Don't get my hopes up. But I think that most of Hollywood would rally around Streep and defend her. Hell, even Rose McGowan apologized to her.
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Post by stephen on Jan 5, 2018 18:36:34 GMT
Guys, was Darkest Hour even eligible here? It's a UK production with no US involvement. Oh, and... Very good question.
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Post by Allenism on Jan 5, 2018 18:36:52 GMT
My gut is telling me that this is going to be the blue-moon of a year where Streep misses. Historically this is a foolish prognostication but it just feels like her shine has dulled a bit with the Weinstein thing. It would be Judi Dench who would replace her, though. Not really sure about that, I see a wild card like Krieps sneaking in instead.
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Post by stephen on Jan 5, 2018 18:42:33 GMT
It would be Judi Dench who would replace her, though. Not really sure about that, I see a wild card like Krieps sneaking in instead. I think the only way that happens is if BAFTA creams their jeans over Phantom Thread (admittedly possible) and completely ignores Victoria & Abdul (less likely), but Dench is like Streep in that if she's got a baity role, she's penciled in. I do agree that Dench and Streep are fighting for the same slot and probably the same voters.
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Post by Allenism on Jan 5, 2018 18:44:31 GMT
Not really sure about that, I see a wild card like Krieps sneaking in instead. I think the only way that happens is if BAFTA creams their jeans over Phantom Thread (admittedly possible) and completely ignores Victoria & Abdul (less likely), but Dench is like Streep in that if she's got a baity role, she's penciled in. I do agree that Dench and Streep are fighting for the same slot and probably the same voters. Hmm, I guess to me it seemed like Dench's buzz had quieted down significantly. I actually forgot that she was in the mix, which is understandable seeing how more publicity-hungry faces like Chastain, Kruger, et al. are dominating the circuit right now.
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Post by Pavan on Jan 5, 2018 18:45:48 GMT
So Wonder Woman is in BP race now?
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Post by Pavan on Jan 5, 2018 18:47:41 GMT
Goodbye Mudbound, The Florida Project and Darkest Hour.
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Post by stephen on Jan 5, 2018 18:49:10 GMT
I think the only way that happens is if BAFTA creams their jeans over Phantom Thread (admittedly possible) and completely ignores Victoria & Abdul (less likely), but Dench is like Streep in that if she's got a baity role, she's penciled in. I do agree that Dench and Streep are fighting for the same slot and probably the same voters. Hmm, I guess to me it seemed like Dench's buzz had quieted down significantly. I actually forgot that she was in the mix, which is understandable seeing how more publicity-hungry faces like Chastain, Kruger, et al. are dominating the circuit right now. She scored at SAG and the Globes. If she hits BAFTA (which is likely), she's got the necessary precursors. And her film did healthy business for the sort of movie it is. Her early release date is a bit of an issue, but again, it's Judi Dench. I will say I'm predicting Streep over her (and I strangely think Hawkins is in danger of getting the Amy Adams treatment), but Dench is still very much a threat that people are overlooking because her competition are in louder, stronger films. All five of the presumed Best Actress candidates (Hawkins, McDormand, Robbie, Ronan, Streep) are in major BP contenders. Dench isn't.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 5, 2018 19:00:38 GMT
Oh I definitely think Sorkin is getting a screenplay nom (justice for his Steve Jobs snub!), but in terms of BP, I just don't really see it. Maybe if they nominate 10 movies? Chastain's campaigning may pay off but I still think she's in sixth place right now. The Best Actress category seems more or less locked up at the moment with Robbie, McDormand, Hawkins, Ronan, and Streep. My gut is telling me that this is going to be the blue-moon of a year where Streep misses. Historically this is a foolish prognostication but it just feels like her shine has dulled a bit with the Weinstein thing. Gut feeling is translation for "I don't want Meryl Streep to be nominated, so if I post it on a message board, it will come true, lol.
Someone ALWAYS makes this prediction every year - because of a gut feeling, and they are ALWAYS wrong. If anything, Hollywood will rally around her because of the Weinstein scandal.
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Post by Allenism on Jan 5, 2018 19:05:36 GMT
My gut is telling me that this is going to be the blue-moon of a year where Streep misses. Historically this is a foolish prognostication but it just feels like her shine has dulled a bit with the Weinstein thing. Gut feeling is translation for "I don't want Meryl Streep to be nominated, so if I post it on a message board, it will come true, lol.
Someone ALWAYS makes this prediction every year - because of a gut feeling, and they are ALWAYS wrong. If anything, Hollywood will rally around her because of the Weinstein scandal.
I've predicted her every year she got in post- The Devil Wears Prada, more or less! I don't care either way, I haven't seen The Post and if she's as good as they say she is in it, then whatever.
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