Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Dec 26, 2017 21:14:09 GMT
I have no idea who to leave out for Best Director. McDonagh and Del Toro feel safe given how big their films look poised to be; ditto Spielberg, since The Post seems to be more Lincoln than Bridge of Spies. Then there's Nolan with a tech marvel and major love from all awards groups so far, as well as Peele and Gerwig with super timely narratives and buzz that just keeps on mounting and mounting. That's 6 names with massive heat, and that's not even accounting for auteurs with potential to be Malick/Zeitlin/Haneke-type spoilers, like Guadagnino and PTA.
I really don't know what to do here, so fuck it, I'm NGNGing a Nolan snub. They've passed on him multiple times before even when his films were tech darlings, Dunkirk is a July release, and judging by how the directors' branch have swung in the past, other late contenders could scoop up more #1 love at the last minute.
I also think Sally Hawkins might be at a bigger risk than most assume, but there doesn't seem to be a strong enough #6 to replace her with at the moment, so I'll keep her.
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dazed
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Post by dazed on Dec 27, 2017 2:18:36 GMT
James Franco - The Disaster Artist
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Post by Christ_Ian_Bale on Dec 27, 2017 3:54:21 GMT
For shits and giggles, I'll say Spielberg is the surprise snub, with McDonagh, Nolan, Gerwig, Del Toro, and Peele being the lineup. That would make all five BD nominees first-timers in the category, which is probably unprecedented. Or at least hasn't happened in a long ass time.
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dadsburgers
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Post by dadsburgers on Dec 27, 2017 4:25:34 GMT
For shits and giggles, I'll say Spielberg is the surprise snub, with McDonagh, Nolan, Gerwig, Del Toro, and Peele being the lineup. That would make all five BD nominees first-timers in the category, which is probably unprecedented. Or at least hasn't happened in a long ass time. Curious if anyone has the stats on that? My NGNG predictions, from least gutsy to gutsiest: Hong Chau -- pretty confident in this one Guadagnino misses for BD -- unfortunately this has been missing left and right Michael Stuhlbarg -- he's my personal win so I'm crossing my fingers Disaster Artist nominated for BP -- older voters love movies about making movies, and younger voters love everything else about it. That's really it for me though. |
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Post by stephen on Dec 27, 2017 4:28:25 GMT
For shits and giggles, I'll say Spielberg is the surprise snub, with McDonagh, Nolan, Gerwig, Del Toro, and Peele being the lineup. That would make all five BD nominees first-timers in the category, which is probably unprecedented. Or at least hasn't happened in a long ass time. It happened in 1995 and '97. |
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Post by bob-coppola on Dec 27, 2017 4:52:03 GMT
I agree with you, I can totally see Dunkirk underwhelming and Nolan missing BD. He's a safe bet 'cause he has giant fandom, his movie made money and got the reviews, but the love for it is fading away as others are getting more and more embraced.
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Post by bob-coppola on Dec 27, 2017 4:52:56 GMT
Also, Hawkins missing in favor of either Judi Dench or Vicky Krieps *drops mic*
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Post by Christ_Ian_Bale on Dec 27, 2017 5:01:40 GMT
For shits and giggles, I'll say Spielberg is the surprise snub, with McDonagh, Nolan, Gerwig, Del Toro, and Peele being the lineup. That would make all five BD nominees first-timers in the category, which is probably unprecedented. Or at least hasn't happened in a long ass time. It happened in 1995 and '97. Holy shit, you're right. Would not have guessed right off it was that recent. |
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Post by pendragon on Dec 27, 2017 5:34:47 GMT
I'm NGNGing a Nolan snub. They've passed on him multiple times before even when his films were tech darlings, I feel like this sentiment is rather overstated. Looking back, the only one that really looked like a snub was for Inception, where he was nominated for the DGA, BFCA, Globes and BAFTA. The Dark Knight only got in for the DGA and BFCA and, regardless of the acclaim, it was still a superhero movie. And other than a DGA nod for Memento, his other directorial efforts have never really been in contention. I don't think there's a particular dislike of his work, just the genres he happened to work in and only once did they seem to ignore a real encouragement to nominate him. |
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Dec 27, 2017 13:04:51 GMT
I'm NGNGing a Nolan snub. They've passed on him multiple times before even when his films were tech darlings, I feel like this sentiment is rather overstated. Looking back, the only one that really looked like a snub was for Inception, where he was nominated for the DGA, BFCA, Globes and BAFTA. The Dark Knight only got in for the DGA and BFCA and, regardless of the acclaim, it was still a superhero movie. And other than a DGA nod for Memento, his other directorial efforts have never really been in contention. I don't think there's a particular dislike of his work, just the genres he happened to work in and only once did they seem to ignore a real encouragement to nominate him. Yeah, in hindsight that quote does make it seem as if they've snubbed him more times than they actually have, but still, there's precedent for him to be left out here if something else surges at the last minute like in 2010, is what I meant. I don't think there's any dislike of his work at all, which is why his films rack up so many nominations and wins from the Academy and also why he does so well with precursors with major voter overlap (BAFTA, DGA). And I very much recognize that Dunkirk is his best shot so far, since it's his best reviewed project and it's in a genre the directors' branch actually gravitates towards instead of away from for once. But like I said, I had to pick someone to leave out, and knowing how this particular group of voters operates, his name stands out as one of the most at risk of missing out due to shifting passions. I like Christ_Ian_Bale's suggestion that Spielberg could be the one to get the boot, though. Could definitely see that happening too. |
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Allenism
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Post by Allenism on Dec 27, 2017 13:22:14 GMT
Lesley Manville sneaking in for Phantom Thread, probaly at the expense of Hong Chau or Octavia Spencer.
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Post by quetee on Dec 27, 2017 17:50:08 GMT
I had a dream that Franco won.
Anyway,
Nolan misses
Denis scores nod
It scores adapted screenplay nod
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Post by stephen on Dec 27, 2017 17:58:49 GMT
I'm inviting you to my next birthday party. |
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 28, 2017 1:57:23 GMT
I have no idea who to leave out for Best Director. McDonagh and Del Toro feel safe given how big their films look poised to be; ditto Spielberg, since The Post seems to be more Lincoln than Bridge of Spies. Then there's Nolan with a tech marvel and major love from all awards groups so far, as well as Peele and Gerwig with super timely narratives and buzz that just keeps on mounting and mounting. That's 6 names with massive heat, and that's not even accounting for auteurs with potential to be Malick/Zeitlin/Haneke-type spoilers, like Guadagnino and PTA. I really don't know what to do here, so fuck it, I'm NGNGing a Nolan snub. They've passed on him multiple times before even when his films were tech darlings, Dunkirk is a July release, and judging by how the directors' branch have swung in the past, other late contenders could scoop up more #1 love at the last minute. I also think Sally Hawkins might be at a bigger risk than most assume, but there doesn't seem to be a strong enough #6 to replace her with at the moment, so I'll keep her. I'm predicting that if both Gerwig and Peele get in it's probably McDonagh that misses. The actors' favorites don't always hit there. But my NGNG is for Tracy Letts to get in ala Jackie Weaver for SLP. |
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Post by Christ_Ian_Bale on Dec 28, 2017 3:03:35 GMT
But my NGNG is for Tracy Letts to get in ala Jackie Weaver for SLP. That would be so cool. |
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Post by stephen on Dec 28, 2017 4:09:06 GMT
Hmmm....
Spielberg misses.
Ridley makes DGA.
PTA makes BAFTA.
Three Billboards overperforms with nominations (including a double supporting actor mention), but goes home with nothing. (Sorry, Frances, but I'm hedging my bets.)
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Post by Ryan_MYeah on Dec 28, 2017 6:40:28 GMT
Netflix bias takes hold, MJ Blige is ignored, Spencer takes her place.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 28, 2017 6:47:12 GMT
Netflix bias takes hold, MJ Blige is ignored, Chau takes her place. I don't think that counts as NGNG. Those two were both nominated for SAG and are fighting for one of the last two spots. |
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Post by jimmalone on Dec 28, 2017 9:23:11 GMT
Spielberg misses
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matheusf
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Post by matheusf on Dec 28, 2017 19:07:49 GMT
The Post will underperform. No Spielberg, no Hanks, no Streep. Just noms for BP, screenplay, editing and maybe score.
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Javi
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Post by Javi on Dec 28, 2017 20:21:35 GMT
Catherine Keener gets in Supporting Actress. She got in for even subtler work before (Capote) and now she's playing the villain in what is arguably a Best Picture frontrunner. Plus her category looks fairly volatile.
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Dec 28, 2017 20:29:22 GMT
The Post will underperform. No Spielberg, no Hanks, no Streep. Just noms for BP, screenplay, editing and maybe score. God, I wish! |
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Post by bob-coppola on Dec 29, 2017 2:38:12 GMT
Dunkirk underperforms and Nolan misses BD.
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Post by Ryan_MYeah on Jan 19, 2018 17:36:10 GMT
Diane Kruger.
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