I'm worried CMBYN will get Carol'd

I think it still gets in, but it underperforming at SAG is a major red flag. I think it's possible it gets the Carol treatment, but as long as it gets in for Actor and Screenplay, it should be fine.

It won't get snubbed for BP because it really helps being a frontunner for Adapted Screenplay and Chalamet is a lock for a nomination

Yes, I've seen it. And while Chalamet is the focus of the film, Hammer and Stuhlbarg get enough meat to their roles that in as weak a year as Supporting Actor is turning out to be, one or both should've been strong contenders for SAG, and even without them, they'd have a shot at Ensemble. But instead of Hammer/Stuhlbarg, Harrelson and Carell got in. That speaks to an unexpected strength in Three Billboards and a potential weakness in Call Me By Your Name. If Chalamet is the only performer they rally around in the film where other films are getting more actor support, it could prove to show that it might not have the passion needed to be a major contender. Call Me By Your Name needs a resurgence from BAFTA and DGA.

Umm Florida Project is not more likely to happen than CMBYN. And just cause Carol missed BP doesn't mean it flopped it got 6 Oscar nominations! Very few films get that many.

Carol wasn't a lock for a screenplay win and CMBYN is (at least 90% I believe), that's my point

Out of curiosity, what other queer movies came out this year? It's one of my favorite genres but I haven't heard of any others this year off the top of my head.


CMBYN will be nominated for the following:
Picture
Actor
Adapted Screenplay
Song

But I fear it will be Carol'ed in the sense that it gets wrongfully snubbed for:
Director
Supporting Actor (Hammer)
Supporting Actor (Stuhlbarg)
Cinematography
Editing


For me, Stuhlbarg is the biggest snub. His heartfelt performance is among the great queer characters of all time. As of now, he's my win and i don't see anyone topping him (no pun intended).

Other, better queer movies of the year include:

120 BPM - it's the movie I've been waiting for for many many years now. It's what Philadelphia should have been.

God's Own Country - My favorite movie of the year and one of the best queer movies of all time. It's the movie that people should talk about instead of CMBYN.

Hjartasteinn (Heartstone) - Great movie from Iceland. It's a tiny bit clichee, but amazing nevertheless. Great cinematography and outstanding young actors.

A Fantastic Woman - Great movie about a Trans*woman. 

Beach Rats - Spectacular lead actor in an amazingly raw movie.


So, yeah. CMBYN is not a bad movie. The novel it is based on is so much more passionate and intimate than the movie though. The acting - despite Chalamet - is nothing to write home about and the chemistry between the two leads wasn't really there for me. God' Own Country for example made me ache for the two characters. I didn't care for the movie Elio and Oliver.

I am all for visibility, but the straight washing of the novel really pissed me off. Also all this talk about being intimate with each other on the award circuit made me mad. 

Debatable 

I think it's a slightly better, more honest film than Carol, at least in that it is coherent all the way through and Carol seemed to me a (expertly directed) big fake out as it set up a clear tragic ending and then went a whole different way. But that might just be how it played on me.

I think the screenplay win (likely) helps a lot with a BP nod.....

As much as I would love it to win Best Picture, it's not happening.

I'm rooting for Timothee Chalamet though; the credit sequence that critics are talking about...goddamn. Gary Oldman does not need to win for The Iron Lady 2.

That describes Carol a lot more than it does CMBYN. The former benefits from Hayne's cerebral direction and an arresting lead performance not given by Rooney Mara, but the overall result is surprisingly unremarkable given the talent involved. The screenplay at certain points is actually kinda...bad.