Post by Zeb31 on Dec 23, 2017 0:40:28 GMT
It's always such a drag to keep up with what is or isn't eligible, but this year I think it's only Three Billboards and Darkest Hour out of the main players.
Original Screenplay:
1. Get Out
2. Lady Bird
3. The Post
4. The Shape of Water
5. The Big Sick
--
6. Phantom Thread
7. The Florida Project
8. I, Tonya
Adapted Screenplay:
1. Call Me by Your Name
2. The Disaster Artist
3. Mudbound
4. Molly's Game
5. Logan
--
6. Wonder
7. All the Money in the World
8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
For the Oscars, Original Screenplay is gonna be a(n even bigger) bloodbath. I can't see any of Three Billboards, Get Out or Lady Bird missing, so that leaves a shootout for the last two slots. The Post and The Shape of Water being such big contenders overall gives them a major boost, but The Big Sick makes total sense here, as does PTA given how respected he is by this branch (missed for The Master but crashed the party at the last second for Inherent Vice). Tempted to predict a Del Toro/Taylor snub in favor of Nanjiani/Gordon.
Then Adapted is... basically a wasteland, with only two real certainties (CMBYN and Disaster Artist). Mudbound feels like a major threat here, but there's always the Netflix factor to consider, and I'm not calling Sorkin a lock yet, though he should make it in given how well liked he his by his peers and how open the field is. That leaves us with a wide open #5 slot, which I'm weirdly feeling will be filled by Logan at the WGAs given their nod for Guardians of the Galaxy in 2014. The Oscars are a different story, though. Maybe All the Money in the World benefits from the Scott/Spacey/Plummer debacle and the unexpected Globe love? Or Wonder, which is a major BO hit? Coppola and Linklater would've been perfect fits here if their films hadn't dropped off the map completely.
Original Screenplay:
1. Get Out
2. Lady Bird
3. The Post
4. The Shape of Water
5. The Big Sick
--
6. Phantom Thread
7. The Florida Project
8. I, Tonya
Adapted Screenplay:
1. Call Me by Your Name
2. The Disaster Artist
3. Mudbound
4. Molly's Game
5. Logan
--
6. Wonder
7. All the Money in the World
8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
For the Oscars, Original Screenplay is gonna be a(n even bigger) bloodbath. I can't see any of Three Billboards, Get Out or Lady Bird missing, so that leaves a shootout for the last two slots. The Post and The Shape of Water being such big contenders overall gives them a major boost, but The Big Sick makes total sense here, as does PTA given how respected he is by this branch (missed for The Master but crashed the party at the last second for Inherent Vice). Tempted to predict a Del Toro/Taylor snub in favor of Nanjiani/Gordon.
Then Adapted is... basically a wasteland, with only two real certainties (CMBYN and Disaster Artist). Mudbound feels like a major threat here, but there's always the Netflix factor to consider, and I'm not calling Sorkin a lock yet, though he should make it in given how well liked he his by his peers and how open the field is. That leaves us with a wide open #5 slot, which I'm weirdly feeling will be filled by Logan at the WGAs given their nod for Guardians of the Galaxy in 2014. The Oscars are a different story, though. Maybe All the Money in the World benefits from the Scott/Spacey/Plummer debacle and the unexpected Globe love? Or Wonder, which is a major BO hit? Coppola and Linklater would've been perfect fits here if their films hadn't dropped off the map completely.
