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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 16, 2017 4:04:43 GMT
This is maybe the most interesting precursor for me because the way I see it there are 7 films that I could see possibly winning Best Picture (Get Out, Three Billboards, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, Dunkirk, The Post, Call Me By Your Name) and I think the DGA likely narrows this down to 5. But which 5?
I wouldn't be super shocked at any of these missing out at DGA (except maybe Nolan. Not because I think Dunkirk is winning BP but because they really love him). Could there be a surprise sneaking in here, Baker or Wright or Scott maybe?
Ill get back to you with my predictions in a bit. My break is ending.
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Dec 16, 2017 4:07:18 GMT
I'm thinking Del Toro, McDonagh, Nolan, Peele and Spielberg.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 16, 2017 6:51:22 GMT
i was thinking GDT, Nolan, Baker, Scott and Spielberg here with McDonagh and Peele as alts.
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morton
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Post by morton on Dec 16, 2017 9:21:23 GMT
I feel like Best Picture has become a little bit clearer as far as possible nominees go, but there's like 10 people that could get in for only 5 spots.
Right now,
1. Nolan - I expect BAFTA and DGA will come through for him in a big way, but I'm still worried that people assume he's safe and he misses again.
2. del Toro - When The Shape of Water seemed like it was fading, I did drop him out to make room, but now I think he could win again. I don't know. It certainly feels like it's between him and Nolan now.
3. Peele - He missed the Globe, but I think it would be weird if he and Gerwig missed since Get Out and Lady Bird feel like top 3 to me.
4. Gerwig - She missed the Globe too, but at least she hit screenplay there. If Lady Bird is top 3, it's hard to see her missing.
5. McDonagh - I wouldn't have thought this before the Globes and SAG, but Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri should do very well at BAFTA too which should help its momentum with Oscar.
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6. Spielberg - It feels weird to leave him out especially when he's the most likely veteran to be nominated, and it's still possible that The Post can win Best Picture. (Although it certainly took a big hit after SAG, but it's not out of the race yet.)
7. Baker - They seem to love directors lately who work with kids; although, I made an error in one of my previous posts when I thought Garth Davis made it in last year, and I think I thought his name was Gareth for some reason. I guess I was thinking about DGA.
8. Anderson - There seems to be a lot more passion for Phantom Thread than there is for the other late release The Post, so maybe Anderson surprises and is the veteran if there is one.
9. Guadagnino - It feels weird to put one of the LAFCA winners all the way down here especially since Call Me By Your Name should win Adapted Screenplay pretty easily, but there seems to be a big disconnect between the film being raved translating to awards success outside of the actors specifically Chalamet.
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avnermoriarti
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Post by avnermoriarti on Dec 16, 2017 22:17:12 GMT
Del Toro, Nolan, McDonagh, Gerwig and Spielberg. Alt: Scott
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Post by stephen on Dec 16, 2017 22:21:16 GMT
Nolan, Del Toro, Gerwig, McDonagh and Spielberg. Peele gets into the Debut category and wins out there.
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Post by FrancescoAbides on Dec 17, 2017 0:02:57 GMT
If the world was fair, Villeneuve would be one of the nominees
Del Toro, Nolan, McDonagh, Peele, Spielberg
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 4, 2018 22:16:31 GMT
I just realized I never actually gave my predictions. So going by the other guilds so far I'll say...
Nolan
Del Toro
Peele
Gerwig
McDonagh
I used to think one of Peele or Gerwig would miss here then replace someone at the Oscars. But now since The Post and CMBYN are underperforming these 5 kind of make sense in both places
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doodle
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Post by doodle on Jan 5, 2018 2:09:07 GMT
I just realized I never actually gave my predictions. So going by the other guilds so far I'll say... Nolan Del Toro Peele Gerwig McDonagh I used to think one of Peele or Gerwig would miss here then replace someone at the Oscars. But now since The Post and CMBYN are underperforming these 5 kind of make sense in both places Christopher Nolan Guillermo Del Toro Greta Gerwig Luca Guadagnino Ridley Scott McDonagh is being overestimated |
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 5, 2018 2:31:08 GMT
del Toro
Gerwig
McDonagh
Nolan
Peele
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Post by stephen on Jan 5, 2018 2:33:59 GMT
I'm actually thinking Spielberg might get replaced with Scott.
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Post by IceTruckDexter on Jan 5, 2018 3:10:13 GMT
Nolan
Del Toro
Gerwig
McDonagh
Peele
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Post by IceTruckDexter on Jan 5, 2018 3:11:52 GMT
I just realized I never actually gave my predictions. So going by the other guilds so far I'll say... Nolan Del Toro Peele Gerwig McDonagh I used to think one of Peele or Gerwig would miss here then replace someone at the Oscars. But now since The Post and CMBYN are underperforming these 5 kind of make sense in both places Christopher Nolan Guillermo Del Toro Greta Gerwig Luca Guadagnino Ridley Scott McDonagh is being overestimated It's clearly the strongest film so far so I think you're underestimating him. I don't think he'll win but I say he's absolutely in the 5. |
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Post by IceTruckDexter on Jan 5, 2018 3:13:04 GMT
If the world was fair, Villeneuve would be one of the nominees Del Toro, Nolan, McDonagh, Peele, Spielberg If the world was fair then Mangold would be one of the nominees. |
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doodle
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Post by doodle on Jan 5, 2018 3:15:57 GMT
Christopher Nolan Guillermo Del Toro Greta Gerwig Luca Guadagnino Ridley Scott McDonagh is being overestimated It's clearly the strongest film so far so I think you're underestimating him. I don't think he'll win but I say he's absolutely in the 5. I don't think so. Three Billboards really isn't that good to begin with. Everyone on here has McDonagh being nominated but I think we're in for a surprise snub. |
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Post by stephen on Jan 5, 2018 3:27:48 GMT
It's clearly the strongest film so far so I think you're underestimating him. I don't think he'll win but I say he's absolutely in the 5. I don't think so. Three Billboards really isn't that good to begin with. Everyone on here has McDonagh being nominated but I think we're in for a surprise snub. That's not really a sentiment that critics or the industry share, judging from the sheer amount of mentions it's gotten. You may not like the film, but you really can't let that influence your predictions. It's at least in the top three in terms of contenders right now. |
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 5, 2018 3:35:18 GMT
It's clearly the strongest film so far so I think you're underestimating him. I don't think he'll win but I say he's absolutely in the 5. I don't think so. Three Billboards really isn't that good to begin with. Everyone on here has McDonagh being nominated but I think we're in for a surprise snub. I strongly dislike Three Billboards but that's not how it works. You're (or my) opinion of the quality of the film is irrelevant. We are not voting. |
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Post by IceTruckDexter on Jan 5, 2018 4:30:42 GMT
It's clearly the strongest film so far so I think you're underestimating him. I don't think he'll win but I say he's absolutely in the 5. I don't think so. Three Billboards really isn't that good to begin with. Everyone on here has McDonagh being nominated but I think we're in for a surprise snub. Who cares if you think it's good or not? This isn't about your preference. |
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doodle
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Post by doodle on Jan 5, 2018 5:01:06 GMT
I don't think so. Three Billboards really isn't that good to begin with. Everyone on here has McDonagh being nominated but I think we're in for a surprise snub. Who cares if you think it's good or not? This isn't about your preference. When did I say it was? |
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Post by jimmalone on Jan 5, 2018 8:35:38 GMT
Guillermo del Toro
Greta Gerwig
Martin McDonagh
Christopher Nolan
Jordan Peele
I could see getting Gerwig or Peele replaced by Spielberg or maybe Sean Baker.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 6, 2018 3:05:01 GMT
Who cares if you think it's good or not? This isn't about your preference. When did I say it was? You gave no other argument as to why people are overestimating it. |
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doodle
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Post by doodle on Jan 6, 2018 4:06:32 GMT
You gave no other argument as to why people are overestimating it. I don't have to, it's just an opinion. |
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Post by TheAlwaysClassy on Jan 6, 2018 4:21:08 GMT
del Toro
Gerwig
Nolan
Peele
Spielberg
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