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Post by MsMovieStar on Dec 13, 2017 22:15:14 GMT
I'd love for Fran but she hates campaigning.
I think Hawkins is an amazing actress. Really underrated.
Streep is so over for me now. How can she have not seen anything? Did she have her head up her ass all the time?
I think I'll have to go with Other, honey, as I've just done a movie where I'm pushed in front of a truck and I think it could be my breakout role... Ronald Ebert (Roger's cousin) said it was the best splatter that he'd ever seen on screen.
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morton
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Post by morton on Dec 13, 2017 22:29:18 GMT
Who will Likely win Best Actress? Everybody is a wild card now! I think I've predicted everyone of the consensus 5 to win at some point except Sally Hawkins, which means she'll probably win, lol. I mean she could. The Shape of Water is still pretty strong even if it doesn't seem like it's going to win Best Picture, imo. However, I just think that it being a genre film, and the fact that Hawkins would be such an atypical winner from the norm lately that I don't see it happening. Right now I'm going with Saoirse Ronan. I know it's a pretty atypical role too, but Lady Bird has defied my expectations so far. Working in her favor is that Lady Bird is a top 3, possibly more, film right now, and this would be her third nomination. She's not an "it" girl in the way that Stone and Lawrence were, but more in the mold of a Larson, so a win is still very possible for her, imo. Frances McDormand certainly has a good chance now, but I'm still not sure whether the tv awards will go to Rockwell in which case I'm not sure that McDormand will win too, or if McDormand is where they award Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri with an acting win, or if it's possible that it doesn't get an acting win. If she hadn't won already, I would definitely predict her, and while she's the type of actress I can see winning a second, this year is very tough, and she didn't really dominate the critics' awards. I guess Sally Hawkins would be next. She might have the best shot at BAFTA; although, I think McDormand and Ronan could win there as well. She's hit every place, and I believe she's won the most critics' awards so far which can be a trend or may not be as we've seen time and again when the critics go one way but the industry goes another. She has a very baity role, and The Shape of Water will probably lead the overall nominations. I think Streep still has a slim shot; although, she took a big hit today. It depends on how divided the rest of the season goes. I could see her winning the Globe because they love her, and they might want to get another viral moment like last year. Ronan wins the other Globe. McDormand wins SAG. Hawkins wins BAFTA. In this scenario, I think she might be able to pull it off because by that time The Post should be widely seen, and perhaps 45 will help its chances in some way. More likely, I think that Ronan, McDormand, or Hawkins will sweep the televised awards. Ronan just makes the most sense to me out of those 3 though at the moment. |
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Post by MsMovieStar on Dec 13, 2017 22:41:16 GMT
I think I'll have to go with Other, honey, as I've just done a movie where I'm pushed in front of a truck and I think it could be my breakout role... Ronald Ebert (Roger's cousin) said it was the best splatter that he'd ever seen on screen. Oh honey, you still can't beat what Sissy Spacek has done in The River.... Ronald just lied about it, he'll do anything to sleep with you  Oh honey, that's nothing! I've done it in Rivers, Swimming Pools... and even once in a small bottle in Macys. And you're wrong about Ronald... He said it after he'd slept with me. |
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Post by mrimpossible on Dec 13, 2017 22:45:09 GMT
I don’t know who but Robbie would be the most deserving of the frontrunners now.
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Post by Viced on Dec 13, 2017 22:51:54 GMT
Frances or bust.
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Post by stephen on Dec 13, 2017 23:34:59 GMT
Ronan. McDormand is poised to be a massive threat but Ronan is exactly at the point in her career where they typically recognize Best Actress: a young ingenue with a couple of nominations under her belt, very charming on the campaign trail, and could plausibly be the only thing about her film that gets recognized if it doesn't win Best Picture (although Metcalf does seem to be favored right now as well). McDormand has a potential favorite to her credit as well, SAG really loved her film, and she's a bonafide legend who has recently won a Tony and an Emmy, cementing her status. But she has an Oscar already, which might work against her. I do think they are the two frontrunners, with Hawkins steadily creeping up behind and Robbie clinging to fourth. Streep is the unknown factor (but let's be real, she's getting in), but I think Saoirse and Frances are the top two.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 13, 2017 23:53:35 GMT
McDormand
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2017 3:48:17 GMT
I have a feeling Ronan is going to win.
It could just as easily go to McDormand the way it looks right now.
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Post by stephen on Dec 14, 2017 5:38:47 GMT
Ronan. McDormand is poised to be a massive threat but Ronan is exactly at the point in her career where they typically recognize Best Actress: a young ingenue with a couple of nominations under her belt, very charming on the campaign trail, and could plausibly be the only thing about her film that gets recognized if it doesn't win Best Picture (although Metcalf does seem to be favored right now as well). McDormand has a potential favorite to her credit as well, SAG really loved her film, and she's a bonafide legend who has recently won a Tony and an Emmy, cementing her status. But she has an Oscar already, which might work against her. I do think they are the two frontrunners, with Hawkins steadily creeping up behind and Robbie clinging to fourth. Streep is the unknown factor (but let's be real, she's getting in), but I think Saoirse and Frances are the top two. But Ronan's Lady Bird is not a typical best actress winning character, I think Academy will give her first oscar next year in more oscarish biopic Mary, Queen of Scotes! People were saying the same thing about Emma Stone last year. |
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Post by Allenism on Dec 17, 2017 12:09:10 GMT
But Ronan's Lady Bird is not a typical best actress winning character, I think Academy will give her first oscar next year in more oscarish biopic Mary, Queen of Scotes! People were saying the same thing about Emma Stone last year. Hopefully the Academy doesn’t make the same mistake twice. But FWIW, 2017 Ronan > 2016 Stone. |
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Post by wallsofjericho on Dec 17, 2017 14:14:43 GMT
I think Hawkins.
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Post by Sharbs on Dec 17, 2017 17:01:32 GMT
Dare I say: I think it'll be Ronan, but I hope it's Hawkins
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Post by pacinoyes on Dec 17, 2017 20:18:50 GMT
To me McDormand is in a league of her own but all I've seen is Ronan (quite good) who I think has the narrative for a win - girl coming of age, defining film (although actually Three Billboards has the better and deeper narrative, forgiveness, but it's less obvious isn't it, alas).
I somehow don't trust these as the top 5. Though I know everyone has them as such......I mean I used to write off Hawkins as maybe being too genre-y.....Streep as being "enough already".......and Williams, Bening, Chastain, Winslet are all out there (Winslet is legit great too, I've seen that one at least but she's out), and Harding I can see being satiric and missing, but it's probably more like satiric and sticking like Kidman in To Die For).
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Post by stephen on Dec 17, 2017 20:30:48 GMT
To me McDormand is in a league of her own but all I've seen is Ronan (quite good) who I think has the narrative for a win - girl coming of age, defining film (although actually Three Billboards has the better and deeper narrative, forgiveness, but it's less obvious isn't it, alas). I somehow don't trust these as the top 5. Though I know everyone has them as such......I mean I used to write off Hawkins as maybe being too genre-y.....Streep as being "enough already".......and Williams, Bening, Chastain, Winslet are all out there (Winslet is legit great too, I've seen that one at least but she's out), and Harding I can see being satiric and missing, but it's probably more like satiric and sticking like Kidman in To Die For). As much as I dislike Streep in general, the Academy is never going to be "enough already" with her. |
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Post by FrancescoAbides on Dec 17, 2017 20:49:58 GMT
Frances McDormand
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Dec 17, 2017 21:06:08 GMT
McDormand has previously won - for a role that is pretty similar. Also, it is difficult to win Best Actress at 60, unless you are Meryl Streep - or undeniable like Helen Mirren.
Best Actress tends to favor the young, ingénue. And this will be Ronan's 3rd nod.
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Post by sirjeremy on Dec 17, 2017 21:21:45 GMT
Unless McDormand starts campaigning, the Oscar is Ronan's to lose.
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Post by stephen on Dec 17, 2017 21:34:08 GMT
McDormand has previously won - for a role that is pretty similar. How are Mildred Hayes and Marge Gunderson remotely similar? |
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Post by hugobolso1 on Dec 18, 2017 0:24:47 GMT
Robbie has bigger and firm boobs so her.-
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