fotodude
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Post by fotodude on Dec 13, 2017 20:19:56 GMT
New month, new BP poll. You know the drill: the poll is only to make my tallying easier. Since it doesn't let us add more options here, I'm simply going to list all the films that received at least one vote last time. If you want to vote for something else, you can: just post your choice below.
Otherwise only use the poll function to vote. Again, don't vote twice if you're also on OB. You can also post below to explain your vote, or if you want to guarantee future bragging rights if you call it early, but only the poll votes will be tallied (with the exception above). I'll keep it open for a few days, then post the results with some comments.
This month we're doing the BP poll a few days later than usual so we'd already have the Golden Globe and SAG nominations... and they haven't really cleared the race. There are several contenders on top now with lots of pros and few cons and a very short distance between them. Last month Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri easily won, with a lead of over 20 votes over The Post and Dunkirk. McDonagh's film had been underwhelming with the first critics awards, but is now back in full force after the Globes and SAGs. Lady Bird and Get Out have had the most consistent precursor trajectory so far though, so they'll probably put up a good fight. Spielberg's film has been hurt by late screeners but reviews have been solid so it's definitely not out yet. And Nolan's has basically maintained its position. Then there's The Shape of Water or Call Me by Your Name, which have hit key nominations but have missed others. All in all, it's really one of the most exciting races in recent memory, especially at this stage. Let's hope it stays this way until Oscar night. Last year by December, things seemed a lot more predictable (with only 4 films listed!):
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Post by bruinjoe96 on Dec 13, 2017 20:38:27 GMT
I say it's between The Post, Call Me By Your Name, and Lady Bird. I went with CMBYN.
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Post by quetee on Dec 13, 2017 21:47:05 GMT
Ranked
Three billboards Get out Lady bird The post
Wow, we still had silence ranked 2nd?
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Post by FrancescoAbides on Dec 13, 2017 21:47:53 GMT
The Shape of Water
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Post by DeepArcher on Dec 13, 2017 22:04:01 GMT
I'm gonna go back to saying Three Billboards after it struck so well with both the Globes and SAG.
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morton
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Post by morton on Dec 13, 2017 22:16:44 GMT
Ranked Three billboards Get out Lady bird The post Wow, we still had silence ranked 2nd? Yes, I feel like it's going to be one of those four movies. I'm not sure which one yet. Just when I think I've got it pinned down, my choice underwhelms in some way. Right now Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is back in the top spot, but I could see any of these four winning. (I could actually see Dunkirk and The Shape of Water too, but I feel more confident that our Best Picture winner is from this top 4.) I'm not ready to vote right now, but whatever wins will be breaking some kind of stat. Get Out:Pros: Best Feature Nomination @ Gotham. Best Feature Nomination @ Spirits. NBR. AFI. GG (C/M) Best Picture. 1 Individual SAG Nomination + Cast Nomination. Topping numerous top 10 lists. Critics favorite. Timely. Great box office. Cons: Missed GG nominations for Director and Screenplay. MC score under 85. Released in February. Lady Bird:Pros: Went to Telluride. Best Feature Nomination @ Spirits. NBR. AFI. GG (C/M) Best Picture. 2 Individual SAG Nominations + Cast Nomination. Critics favorite. MC Score is above 85. Timely because of it being female lead and female written-directed. Great box office. Cons: No Best Feature Nomination @ Gotham. Missed GG nomination for Director. Feels slight, imo, compared to the other possible BP winners. The Post:Pros:Ineligible for Gotham and Spirits. NBR. AFI. GG (D) Best Picture. GG Nominations for Director + Screenplay. Timely. Probably should do well at the box office. Cons: No SAG nominations. MC score under 85. Late release. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri:Pros: Audience Award @ TIFF. AFI. GG (D) Best Picture. GG Nominations for Director + Screenplay. 3 Individual SAG Nominations + Cast Nomination. MC score above 85. Timely. Good box office. Cons: No Best Feature nominations @ Gotham and Spirits. No NBR mention. Maybe too divisive? It depends on who you ask.
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fotodude
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Post by fotodude on Dec 13, 2017 23:05:03 GMT
Ranked Three billboards Get out Lady bird The post Wow, we still had silence ranked 2nd? Yes, I feel like it's going to be one of those four movies. I'm not sure which one yet. Just when I think I've got it pinned down, my choice underwhelms in some way. Right now Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is back in the top spot, but I could see any of these four winning. (I could actually see Dunkirk and The Shape of Water too, but I feel more confident that our Best Picture winner is from this top 4.) I'm not ready to vote right now, but whatever wins will be breaking some kind of stat. Get Out:Pros: Best Feature Nomination @ Gotham. Best Feature Nomination @ Spirits. NBR. AFI. GG (C/M) Best Picture. 1 Individual SAG Nomination + Cast Nomination. Topping numerous top 10 lists. Critics favorite. Timely. Great box office. Cons: Missed GG nominations for Director and Screenplay. MC score under 85. Released in February. Lady Bird:Pros: Best Feature Nomination @ Spirits. NBR. AFI. GG (C/M) Best Picture. 2 Individual SAG Nominations + Cast Nomination. Critics favorite. MC Score is above 85. Timely because of it being female lead and female written-directed. Great box office. Cons: No Best Feature Nomination @ Gotham. Missed GG nomination for Director. Feels slight, imo, compared to the other possible BP winners. The Post:Pros: Went to Telluride. Ineligible for Gotham and Spirits. NBR. AFI. GG (D) Best Picture. GG Nominations for Director + Screenplay. Timely. Probably should do well at the box office. Cons: No SAG nominations. MC score under 85. Late release. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri:Pros: Audience Award @ TIFF. AFI. GG (D) Best Picture. GG Nominations for Director + Screenplay. 3 Individual SAG Nominations + Cast Nomination. MC score above 85. Timely. Good box office. Cons: No Best Feature nominations @ Gotham and Spirits. No NBR mention. Maybe too divisive? It depends on who you ask. Good analysis as always, but The Post didn't go to Telluride hehe.
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morton
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Post by morton on Dec 14, 2017 0:04:35 GMT
Yes, I feel like it's going to be one of those four movies. I'm not sure which one yet. Just when I think I've got it pinned down, my choice underwhelms in some way. Right now Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is back in the top spot, but I could see any of these four winning. (I could actually see Dunkirk and The Shape of Water too, but I feel more confident that our Best Picture winner is from this top 4.) I'm not ready to vote right now, but whatever wins will be breaking some kind of stat. Get Out:Pros: Best Feature Nomination @ Gotham. Best Feature Nomination @ Spirits. NBR. AFI. GG (C/M) Best Picture. 1 Individual SAG Nomination + Cast Nomination. Topping numerous top 10 lists. Critics favorite. Timely. Great box office. Cons: Missed GG nominations for Director and Screenplay. MC score under 85. Released in February. Lady Bird:Pros: Best Feature Nomination @ Spirits. NBR. AFI. GG (C/M) Best Picture. 2 Individual SAG Nominations + Cast Nomination. Critics favorite. MC Score is above 85. Timely because of it being female lead and female written-directed. Great box office. Cons: No Best Feature Nomination @ Gotham. Missed GG nomination for Director. Feels slight, imo, compared to the other possible BP winners. The Post:Pros: Went to Telluride. Ineligible for Gotham and Spirits. NBR. AFI. GG (D) Best Picture. GG Nominations for Director + Screenplay. Timely. Probably should do well at the box office. Cons: No SAG nominations. MC score under 85. Late release. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri:Pros: Audience Award @ TIFF. AFI. GG (D) Best Picture. GG Nominations for Director + Screenplay. 3 Individual SAG Nominations + Cast Nomination. MC score above 85. Timely. Good box office. Cons: No Best Feature nominations @ Gotham and Spirits. No NBR mention. Maybe too divisive? It depends on who you ask. Good analysis as always, but The Post didn't go to Telluride hehe. Thanks. I fixed it now. I forgot to include it when I was trying to remember pros for Lady Bird, then when I went back to add it, I put it in the wrong spot. I would say of these four, Lady Bird fits the fall festival winner that's been winning lately on paper (Telluride, hit pretty much every thing so far, MC score above 85), but I don't know. It's charming, it's definitely gotten much further than I ever expected, but I don't know if it's "important" enough. Maybe that won't be such a factor since it might be the only one out of the four that most people love/like while the other three are either too divisive or don't inspire enough passion at all ( The Post).
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Post by joephoenix on Dec 14, 2017 0:04:44 GMT
I think I voted for Three Billboards last month but was starting to feel unsure about it recently, but it did really well at SAG today so I'll stick with it.
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Dec 14, 2017 0:53:22 GMT
Still think it's either Three Billboards or The Post, with the former now getting the edge due to its Globe + SAG overperformance.
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dazed
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Post by dazed on Dec 14, 2017 2:33:43 GMT
Three Billboards. Won’t be surprised if it turns out to be Call Me By Your Name or The Post though.
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Post by Martin Stett on Dec 14, 2017 3:26:54 GMT
Wow, we still had silence ranked 2nd? This board has always had a hard-on for Scorsese. Doesn't matter if it doesn't make sense, he has too many fanboys. I'm sticking with Billboards, but BOY, my confidence is shaky. SAG was a big win for the movie, but I always knew it would do well there. The Shape of Water is about a romance between a woman and a fish, no matter how praised it gets. Get Out is the big political movie of the moment, but the reactions of this board and normal people make me think that it isn't happening. I still have no idea what to make of The Post or CMBYN. Lady Bird hits all of the right notes and could very easily come through with a surprise win at the end of the day. It's my alternate. It is the one movie that EVERYBODY enjoys.
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 14, 2017 3:51:52 GMT
Yeah, Three Billboards is back on top.
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Post by jimmalone on Dec 14, 2017 9:08:50 GMT
So far there were really many films that could win - and there is still a chance for four or five of them. But right at this moment I get the feeling that Lady Bird and Three Billboards got a bit ahead. I wished I had seen them, cause while it's no definitive indicator, I think I've developped quite a good feeling for what the voters of the Academy like.
But I think Get Out (which is probably in 3rd place) or maybe even Call me by your name or Dunkirk still have a chance.
Right now it's just a little feeling, but I pick Lady Bird.
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Post by quetee on Dec 14, 2017 18:37:07 GMT
Dunkirk is not happening.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Dec 14, 2017 18:38:36 GMT
Going with CMBYN but I honestly have no clue
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fotodude
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Post by fotodude on Dec 17, 2017 7:48:18 GMT
Keep them coming.
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atn
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Post by atn on Dec 17, 2017 7:56:05 GMT
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fotodude
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Post by fotodude on Dec 18, 2017 22:58:32 GMT
Last bump
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