Is Daniel Kaluuya getting a nod for GET OUT ?

I don't buy it. I think Peele has a better shot. Get Out will show up in Best Picture and Best Screenplay.

1. Oldman
2. DDL
3. Chalamet
4. Franco
5. Hanks/Gyllenhaal

I would say at this point he's at the very least higher than Gyllenhaal.

I think he's higher than Gyllenhaal too just based on the strength of Get Out. It's having a very nice critical resurgence at the right time. I don't know if he makes it in though because I would say Oldman is locked and the winner barring any allegations coming out and/or him putting his foot into his mouth and damaging his chances. Then, I think Chalamet is likely in despite his age because of the strength of Call Me By Your Name, and because of his critical run. 

I can't really see DDL missing because Phantom Thread seems to be a potential low tier BP contender; although, I don't think it will make it in the end, but more importantly DDL is DDL, and he has the narrative of Phantom Thread being his last film. It's possible since I don't think he's as safe as Oldman or Chalamet, but I can't really imagine it happening.

It could be Hanks because we know he's had bad luck getting in since Captain Phillips even in weaker years like with Bridge of Spies and Sully. However, he did win Best Actor at NBR, and I think that The Post will be better positioned than either Captain Phillips or Bridge of Spies even if the critical reception wasn't on par with Lady Bird or Call Me By Your Name. 

I guess Franco would be the most vulnerable, but I really want him to make it in. In his favor, he's a former nominee, directed himself, and I think he'll win the Globe Comedy/Musical. However, Best Actor and Best Picture have a strong relationship which would favor Kaluuya. Plus, I don't know how well AMPAS voters are familiar with The Room. On one hand, I think the majority of voters could see The Disaster Artist as being what most of them go through in the industry even if it has to do with Tommy Wiseau. On the other hand, I could see the majority of voters not wanting the Oscars to have anything to do with Tommy Wiseau too. Or voters won't get it at all, which would favor Kaluuya. 

Further, I think that Kaluuya would be the easiest place, perhaps even the only realistic place to award Get Out, for its acting. I've seen some people say that Catherine Keener could sneak in since she did so with Capote, but she also had The 40 Year Old Virgin that year. She was also playing a real person, and PSH won pretty much everything that year which made it very easy for her to coattail off of. Right now I haven't seen Keener pop up anywhere, and even Get Out has been left out for Best Ensemble by some places, and I don't think she has that extra factor that could help her this year. 

Right now though I don't know that two young actors will actually make it in because of AMPAS's usual age bias against younger males. Plus, both of them are pretty unknown, so they sort of occupy the same niche which would favor Chalamet as he's gotten more recognition for his performance. I also haven't seen him campaigning as much, at least not yet, as Chalamet, Franco, and Hanks which could possibly hurt him since he's not very well known yet. DDL isn't going to campaign, and Oldman doesn't need to. 

Looking through the past few years, Eisenberg, Gosling, Ledger, and Redmayne all had higher profiles in the industry at the time of their first nominations. Plus, I feel that their performances were raved much more than Kaluuya's has been. Not that he hasn't had good reviews, but he hasn't got the same level of reviews that Chalamet is getting right now. 

I'd probably rate him sixth or seventh right now. It's a very tough group to crack, but his film is doing quite well.

I'm becoming more convinced with each passing day that he will. At this point, I'd say that Oldman, Chalamet, and Franco are all pretty safe. Day-Lewis and Hanks are both up-in-the-air at the moment with the former more likely to get in than the latter, though both arguably ahead of Kaluuya. Though I wouldn't be at all surprised if the fifth spot is claimed by Kaluuya, Nanjiani, or Gyllenhaal, with Daniel being the most likely among them to clinch a spot in the line-up. 

I think he might, I'm not the biggest fan Get Out (I thought it was just okay) but it clearly has fans and no one is passionate about Gyllenhaal at all as far as I see. Now to me it absurd he'd get in over Harry Dean Stanton in Lucky but it's the season of the absurd so.......he's not top 5 right now, but there's a ways to go to build that momentum too.

Would be surprised if jake scores a nod.

He won't.

I remember a while back you said you had Kaluuya as runner-up behind Franco for the Globe while I had him outside the top 5. I'll let you choose the dressing I'll eat my crow with.

Oldman, Day-Lewis and Chalamet are solid. I had Gyllenhaal as #4 for a while because it looked like a thin enough category and he seemed like he'd have enough good will/reviews to overcome Stronger's September release, but his buzz seems to be fading fast, as if no one's really talking about him anymore. I imagine he'll hit SAG due to Phantom Thread and The Post being out so late, but I'm doubting he'll have the #1 support to make the Oscar lineup. Meanwhile, Franco's having an impressive run with critics' awards, while Hanks and Kaluuya will no doubt benefit from being in massively popular films. I seriously underestimated the love Get Out would get, and that could easily continue into the industry prizes. 

Right now I'd have Franco in 4th with either Hanks or Kaluuya getting the last slot.

Nope

It would mean way more than anything that has happened so far