Ronan, McDormand, Streep, Hawkins, Robbie?

Zeb31 said it all again. These are definitely the consensus 5 right now, but I expect one of them to be knocked out since there's usually some surprises on nomination morning. I guess 2015 was pretty predictable, but in the past few years, we've had at least one person hit everything and then miss the Oscar nomination. I think odds are pretty good that it happens again this year just because unlike 2015 which didn't really have a lot of other options that could have snuck in, there's three solid choices that could sneak in and surprise.

I think that Hawkins is the most vulnerable too just because The Shape of Water so far has underwhelmed this awards season from being labeled an early frontrunner that many thought would win the People's Choice Award at TIFF. I, Tonya has at least shown up at the Gothams and Independent Spirit Awards, so it's still doing fine. It would have been nice for Robbie or Janney or the film to get some kind of mention at NBR or NYFCC, but they're still in good shape. While I'm sort of flip flopping, like I usually do lol, about Best Supporting Actress, a lot of people are confident that Janney will steamroll the televised awards so I don't think critics' awards matter in her case. With Robbie, I think that being the newbie helps a lot as we saw last year with Ruth Negga, and she's a rising star. I thought she might be able to win because of her being the latest "it" girl, but I reached too far with that one. Although I think that stephen and maybe you were right that she'll probably win on her second nomination like Jennifer Lawrence and Emma Stone. I think that I, Tonya unfortunately just isn't strong enough compared to most everyone else's film. However, I think that the nomination will be seen as her reward, and I think that I, Tonya should do well at the box office and that will help it during awards season.

I don't know about The Shape of Water. I know Fox Searchlight has it set up to get the biggest per screen average of the year by only releasing it in two theaters this week, but after that, I don't know. It's all anecdotal evidence, but at some places like Reddit, I see some people who can't wait for it, and then at other sites, I see a lot of people say that when they go to the theater, it's like crickets whenever the trailer has played because people aren't interested in it or that their friends have no interest in seeing it. So I could see it going either way. Sally Hawkins isn't exactly a big draw, but Guillermo del Toro has a fanbase. Plus, the good reviews probably should help; although, Stronger, Battle of the Sexes, Blade Runner 2049, Novitiate, mother!, etc., all had decent to great reviews but still bombed. Then, the next week I, Tonya and The Disaster Artist both open too, and again anecdotally, I've seen a lot more interest for both of those films especially The Disaster Artist.

Further, with Hawkins, she already received a "welcome to the club" nomination just a few years ago, and while I'm sure she's very respected, I don't know if that's enough when she's up against Chastain, Dench, McDormand, and Streep who are probably more respected. (Okay, it might be close with Chastain, but Chastain has a lot of hustle, and is constantly working which will hopefully pay off for her again.) Then, you have Ronan who will be on her third nomination at just 23, and Robbie who has the surprise factor. Of course, there's the genre factor too.

Who knows maybe it will be McDormand that actually gets knocked out since she would fit the previous winner model that gets bumped (Cotillard, Mirren, Swinton), but that seems unlikely since I think there's a path there for her to win.