Can "Lady Bird" win Best Picture?

I think in theory it can but unless it starts sweeping the big awards, I won't predict it. I haven't seen the movie but it seems like it's a bit too slight for them to give it the BP award - it's not really a 'message' picture, nor does it seem to carry an importance factor. Even though the Academy does seem to be changing, I don't see them going for a relationship story of a girl and her mom. Although I do think it's gonna get the main nominations and maybe even win something like screenplay.

Not sure but Greta is getting a nod.

It's certainly possible, but I think it's going to be this year's Boyhood: shaped as the critical favorite that people start rallying behind at the start of the year, but flags at the industry prizes and winds up taking home at most two awards (Actress, maybe Original Screenplay if they really want to recognize Gerwig).

I still wouldn't count out McDonagh. The writers' branch are gonna love Three Billboards, he's a beloved playwright and an Oscar winner already. Plus there's PTA gaining steam in the wings.

Hmm, I'd say Three Billboars and The Post are ahead of both right now. Plus, like Stephen says, PTA is slowly rising too.

that is true. I just think Greta and jordan are scoring director nods this year. But year, Martin is a threat too but seems like Three is losing stream. I think la is gonna go with either call me by your Name or get out as picture. I'm leaning more towards get out. Well, unless they give three the bp win.

The big critics' prizes are nice to have, but we also have to think where the industry is going to go. BAFTA, for instance, is almost primed to love McDonagh. He's their hometown laureate. He's ineligible for WGA, though (so is Call Me By Your Name). This hasn't hurt winners like 12 Years a Slave, but in a close race, momentum is key.

Yes, I agree that it's definitely possible, but it still doesn't feel "important" enough to me even if it is about a woman and directed by a woman. I guess it's been almost ten years since The Hurt Locker won, but there's not the narrative that Greta Gerwig would be the first woman to direct a Best Picture winner. Of course, she could have the narrative of being the second woman to do so, but I don't know that's flashy enough. (I mean it's disgraceful, but I don't know if it will matter much in the end.) Plus, The Hurt Locker had the advantage of being "important", but also revolving around a male lead and mostly male cast, so it was able to win the steakeater vote. As much as men critics are praising Lady Bird, I don't know if enough steakeaters are going to put it down as their number 1. Of course, that may not matter if it's ranked high enough, it could definitely become the consensus choice since I don't see it ranking low on many people's ballots.  


This is actually a great comparison. Boyhood was a film that kept surprising. I remember in summer, it had all of this critical acclaim like no other film has had, and award watchers started to wonder if it could be a contender despite IFC distributing it. Then, it swept through all the critics' awards, and then it did great at the Globes and BAFTA too, but it just could not compete with Birdman at the guilds. I guess Lady Bird would have the "importance" factor of being female directed and lead by a female unlike Boyhood, but Boyhood won everything that year until the guilds, and it's Metacritic score was 100 and had the record for most 100s. Plus, unlike in 2014, the "important" films didn't really do that well over all luckily for Birdman; although, I think that it still probably would have won because so many voters could relate to it. This year for me Call Me By Your Name, Get Out, The Post, and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri could all be considered "important" films, and at least to me, maybe moreso than Lady Bird. Sure Lady Bird is female driven, but Get Out, The Post and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri seem more topical, and films that would piss off 45 more, if he's still in office. Plus, the latter two are female lead, and if Streep or McDormand won, it would be pretty powerful because of their age and the fact that it would be the fourth or second Oscar for them too. If Get Out wins, it would be a pretty powerful statement in light of Charlottesville, NY Times articles that normalize Nazis, 45's behavior ever since he took office, etc. 

Not to say it wouldn't be impressive if Lady Bird won, and I can absolutely see a path, but I think those other films have more of an advantage. Right now I think it might be between the two films that end up winning their respective Globe categories. I didn't think Get Out would win after all the controversy over whether it was a comedy/musical or drama, but it's topping quite a few critics' lists so far. Plus, again there's the "importance" factor. I think The Post wins the Drama category for obvious reasons. BAFTA, I don't know. Dunkirk or Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri might win there, or either Get Out or The Post sweep everything. 


 

Why are they ineligible?

I also don't think the fact that a woman is directing Lady Bird is already enough to make it important.

It's just a feeling and except Dunkirk I haven't seen any contender, but I think BAFTA could likely go to Dunkirk or The Post.

Haven't seen it; I've heard there's more emphasis on the Mom than what you would think, but it would still constitute a "youth movie" right? If so it's not going to win, the Academy won't give a youth movie BP no matter how good it is (The Graduate, The Social Network, Rebel Without a Cause, exc)