fotodude
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Post by fotodude on Nov 10, 2017 14:26:35 GMT
New month, new BP poll. You know the drill: the poll is only to make my tallying easier. Since it doesn't let us add more options here, I'm simply going to list all the films that received at least one vote last time. If you want to vote for something else, you can: just post your choice below.
Otherwise only use the poll function to vote. Again, don't vote twice if you're also on OB. You can also post below to explain your vote, or if you want to guarantee future bragging rights if you call it early, but only the poll votes will be tallied (with the exception above). I'll keep it open for a few days, then post the results with some comments.
Things haven't changed that much lately. We do have all the trailers available now, and some strong contenders like Lady Bird or Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri have just been released, so that could give us more perspective. The latter won last month by just one vote, over The Shape of Water, and only two votes more than The Post. I'm not sure if the balance will stay that way this month or if a new frontrunner will emerge, but considering the most noticeable news has been the All in the Money in the World mess, the BP race feels rather stagnant at this point. In November last year, this is how we saw it:
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Post by Martin Stett on Nov 10, 2017 15:50:56 GMT
There's no gettin' offa this train we're on. I'm sticking with Three Billboards until the shocking news of Martin McDonagh running a child sex ring gets out.
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 10, 2017 17:28:04 GMT
Three Billboards
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morton
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Post by morton on Nov 10, 2017 18:10:20 GMT
I think I do this every year, but I'm going to go back to The Post because I'm worried about Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missour's Metacritic score falling under 86. I didn't even know it was that close, but I read at another forum that it could slip under that mark and no Best Picture winner since The Departed has won. I know that someday that statistic will break again, but for now if TBOEM does fall below 86, I think that maybe The Post can slip in despite being a very late release and the very real chance that Spielberg won't be able to top himself. It's just I agree with The_Cake_of_Roth's that it seems like whichever film wins Best Actress (likely Best Original Screenplay) too is going to win Best Picture this year, and looking at the awards calendar, the Globes are the first televised precursor, which bodes very well for Streep, imo. Of course, maybe they'll surprise and Hawkins beats both Streep and McDormand again, or they award McDormand her first Globe, but knowing the Globes and how much attention they got last year when she accepted her Globe, they're going to want to try to recreate that moment again especially since The Post would be the perfect film to award her for to get another viral moment and because many people are still angry at what happened almost one year ago and the aftermath of that. If she wins there, I think it's game over for everyone else especially since there's a good chance that Trump will try to attack Streep and The Post which will only make many voters want her to keep winning even more. Plus, while McDormand will campaign a little bit, I don't think she'll campaign at the level Streep will. Of course, both TBOEM and The Post are incredibly timely, so TBOEM could still possibly win. However, currently I'm thinking that The Post will be hard to deny in the political climate that we're in combined with Streep's character fighting the patriarchy. In December when there's all kind of drama with The Post getting out screeners and more possibly more "inside buzz" about it being negative, I'll probably predict TBOEM again, lol. Then in January when Streep is favored to win the Globe, I'll probably switch back to The Post.
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fotodude
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Post by fotodude on Nov 10, 2017 22:09:33 GMT
I think I do this every year, but I'm going to go back to The Post because I'm worried about Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missour's Metacritic score falling under 86. I didn't even know it was that close, but I read at another forum that it could slip under that mark and no Best Picture winner since The Departed has won. I know that someday that statistic will break again, but for now if TBOEM does fall below 86, I think that maybe The Post can slip in despite being a very late release and the very real chance that Spielberg won't be able to top himself. It's just I agree with The_Cake_of_Roth's that it seems like whichever film wins Best Actress (likely Best Original Screenplay) too is going to win Best Picture this year, and looking at the awards calendar, the Globes are the first televised precursor, which bodes very well for Streep, imo. Of course, maybe they'll surprise and Hawkins beats both Streep and McDormand again, or they award McDormand her first Globe, but knowing the Globes and how much attention they got last year when she accepted her Globe, they're going to want to try to recreate that moment again especially since The Post would be the perfect film to award her for to get another viral moment and because many people are still angry at what happened almost one year ago and the aftermath of that. If she wins there, I think it's game over for everyone else especially since there's a good chance that Trump will try to attack Streep and The Post which will only make many voters want her to keep winning even more. Plus, while McDormand will campaign a little bit, I don't think she'll campaign at the level Streep will. Of course, both TBOEM and The Post are incredibly timely, so TBOEM could still possibly win. However, currently I'm thinking that The Post will be hard to deny in the political climate that we're in combined with Streep's character fighting the patriarchy. In December when there's all kind of drama with The Post getting out screeners and more possibly more "inside buzz" about it being negative, I'll probably predict TBOEM again, lol. Then in January when Streep is favored to win the Globe, I'll probably switch back to The Post. I'm regularly checking MC scores and I thought TBOEM was still at 87 but you're right, it's down to 86. I guess I'll wait a day or two to see if that changes, and we'll have weekend box office numbers by then, so that should give us a better idea.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Nov 10, 2017 22:18:42 GMT
sticking with Call Me By Your Name for now. I know that's mostly wishful thinking tho..
EDIT: also, wooow. Where did all the support for Dunkirk go?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 10, 2017 22:54:19 GMT
I'll go with Call Me By Your Name for now.
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Post by Martin Stett on Nov 11, 2017 0:36:33 GMT
sticking with Call Me By Your Name for now. I know that's mostly wishful thinking tho.. EDIT: also, wooow. Where did all the support for Dunkirk go? It wasn't an Oscar season release, and it seems to have lost a lot of buzz, at least to my ears.
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Post by jimmalone on Nov 11, 2017 10:15:43 GMT
Still don't which I'd call the favorite. I haven't seen any of the presumed options except Dunkirk and Blade Runner 2049 and I really can't imagine the latter one to go all the way.
While I think The Post will be fantastic I stay by what I've always said: I don't see Best Picture going again to a film of this type with Spotlight winning only two years ago.
A similiar argument could be made for Call my by your Name in regard to Moonlight, though this seems rather a overlapping of the homosexual topic.
I think Dunkirk happened to long ago and while I adore the film I can imagine it being to less about the characters and to "technical" for the taste of the academys members. I think it should do pretty well in several categories, but maybe not Best Picture, though judging by past winners it would be time for another war film to win the big prize.
Could this happen The Darkest Hour then? I don't think this has the universal acclaim and love, which is needed mostly to win Best Picture.
Three Billboard Outside Ebbing, Missouri right now seems as the trendy choice right now. I haven't seen it and maybe once I've got the chance it obviously could totally turn my head around, but right now, from what I've heard this just doesn't feel like a Best Picture winner to me. This is not about the Metacritic Score, I think we could very well have a winner in the 80-86 range, but maybe it is because McDonaghs movies so far seemed like miles away from films the Academy would fully embrace and the topic doesn't seem ideal for them as well.
This you could also say for The Shape of Water possibly. And it would definitely be a bit away from their usual taste, but I could see them opening up to a fairy tale like this. They always had a soft spot for good romances and it would be time again for them to award one.
I also think The Florida Project is entirely possible. This kinda flows under the radar, but at the same time at least it stays in contention all the while.
Right now my guess is The Shape of Water.
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fotodude
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Post by fotodude on Nov 11, 2017 11:10:23 GMT
Still don't which I'd call the favorite. I haven't seen any of the presumed options except Dunkirk and Blade Runner 2049 and I really can't imagine the latter one to go all the way. While I think The Post will be fantastic I stay by what I've always said: I don't see Best Picture going again to a film of this type with Spotlight winning only two years ago. A similiar argument could be made for Call my by your Name in regard to Moonlight, though this seems rather a overlapping of the homosexual topic. I think Dunkirk happened to long ago and while I adore the film I can imagine it being to less about the characters and to "technical" for the taste of the academys members. I think it should do pretty well in several categories, but maybe not Best Picture, though judging by past winners it would be time for another war film to win the big prize. Could this happen The Darkest Hour then? I don't think this has the universal acclaim and love, which is needed mostly to win Best Picture. Three Billboard Outside Ebbing, Missouri right now seems as the trendy choice right now. I haven't seen it and maybe once I've got the chance it obviously could totally turn my head around, but right now, from what I've heard this just doesn't feel like a Best Picture winner to me. This is not about the Metacritic Score, I think we could very well have a winner in the 80-86 range, but maybe it is because McDonaghs movies so far seemed like miles away from films the Academy would fully embrace and the topic doesn't seem ideal for them as well. This you could also say for The Shape of Water possibly. And it would definitely be a bit away from their usual taste, but I could see them opening up to a fairy tale like this. They always had a soft spot for good romances and it would be time again for them to award one. I also think The Florida Project is entirely possible. This kinda flows under the radar, but at the same time at least it stays in contention all the while. Right now my guess is The Shape of Water. Good analysis. Don't forget to add your choice to the poll!
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fotodude
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Post by fotodude on Nov 13, 2017 13:44:57 GMT
Anyone else? I'm probably closing this today.
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