Do you think hanks will be snubbed AGAIN this year?

Garfield is out - his film is getting very mixed reviews and not doing well at the box office. Same as Gleeson. Since SPC lost the "overdue" narrative after his Honorary Oscar win, probably they'll not care for promoting Sutherland anymore. Stanton's distributor is terrible at awards. Sandler has the buzz and is campaigning but he'd be a sole nom from a Netflix film and that sounds unlikely to me, if it was some other actor maybe but Adam doesn't have the respect in the industry for happening for a Netflix film. I would love to see him getting in though.
Neither of Damon films are getting much praise and even the positive reviews for "Downsizing" doesn't point out Damon as a particular highlight.

As for Hanks, he may get in unless the film flops hard (which I don't see it) cause the competition is not strong. Currently I predict:
1. Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour. Like... duh.
2. Daniel Day Lewis - Phantom Thread. Late release yeah but he already has the buzz, especially with "last role" headlines being everywhere.
3. Timothee Chalamet - Call Me By Your Name
4. Jake Gyllenhaal - Stronger. Flopped hard at the box office but he's got the reviews and he's campaigning aggressively.
5. Tom Hanks - the Post

Possibilities:
Adam Sandler (maybe his campaign will pay off, but doubt)
Denzel Washington (if the film gets improved and gets better reviews)
James Franco (maybe a Globes-only thing but passion votes may get him in. previous nominee)
Steve Carell (Last Flag Flying. Reviews are not there for the film but his own personal reviews are fine and industry may respond well to it. Previous nominee)

Currently I am predicting him but its one of my shakiest choices. Really depend on how the film is appreciated. I can totally see him missing out but Best Actor is rather weak this year so who knows.

It's hard to seeing him missing because this year is so weak, but he did miss for Sully and Bridge of Spies in years that were pretty bad too. Right now I'm predicting him, but I agree I think it depends on the film mostly. I think Streep could get in if the film disappoints, but with Hanks, it seems like unless he plays against type or has some kind of DDL sweep for a film, they're okay with passing him over. 

Yeah. Last spot will go to Franco or Jake G or Denzel or even Harry Dean Stanton

Oh yeah you right. Those three and Jake Gyllenhaal I guess. The last two spots are going to be a bloobath though. I really wanted to see Hugh Jackman getting in if the Academy had the balls btw

I want Franco. I demand it.

Seconding what thomasjerome said: don't see Garfield happening. Breathe has bad reviews and isn't making money, so it probably won't be in anybody's radar; plus, he just got his welcome-to-the-club nomination, and there's no real pressure to give him another one so soon, especially for this. The role is as baity as it gets, but then again, Gyllenhaal's is also baity, and unlike Garfield's, his film was surprisingly well-received across the board, which goes along nicely with his own personal raves.

I honestly didn't know what Gleeson could possibly be in contention for for a couple minutes there. Not even the people who made Goodbye Christopher Robin must remember that Goodbye Christopher Robin exists.

Sutherland's getting an honorary Oscar already and SPC have bigger fish to fry with Chalamet in this category (plus maybe Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool in Best Actress), so The Leisure Seeker will probably be a Globe player at best.

Stanton and Sandler have the reviews. But then again, they also have Magnolia and Netflix.

And Damon's vehicles this year both seem to be misfires, each to its own degree: Suburbicon is a total flop with disastrous box-office and reviews near red territory on MC, while Downsizing got polarizing responses and (it seems to me) has oddly disappeared from the conversation. Him being implicated on the Weinstein scandal makes it even less likely that it gets brought back to life.

So here's how I see it:

1. Gary Oldman. Closest thing to a lock.

2. Daniel Day-Lewis. I was cautious about his chances before, but between Phantom Thread apparently being close to completed (which means Focus will have a lot of time to screen it before the ballots are out) and it being nowhere near as sexually graphic as rumored (which means more accessibility), plus the hype about this being his last performance and long-awaited PTA reunion, he's probably in.

After that, it's all musical chairs. The next four feel more like #4 or #5s to me, but since I have to rank them:

3. Timothée Chalamet. I could easily see them pass him over because of his age, but Call Me by Your Name could be top 3 and Stuhlbarg is very much in the running for the Supporting win. Plus he's also in Lady Bird, which can only help, so I'll give Chalamet the edge here.

4. Jake Gyllenhaal. He has the role and the raves, as well as a lot of goodwill after his snub for Nightcrawler and his strong work in the 12 years since his sole nomination, but the September release gives me pause. If The Post surges at the right time and/or the industry responds well to the re-edited Inner City Roman Whatever, Esq., he could get Captain Phillips'd.

5. Denzel Washington. His track record with the Academy speaks for itself, and he just came close to a win for Fences. I don't usually buy into afterglow talk, but it's conceivable in this case, especially if Gilroy manages to iron the movie out and polish it into a better product.

6. Tom Hanks. I don't buy that the industry is over him, because he was mighty close to a 6th nod four years ago, but I'll err on the side of caution and keep him at #6 because Streep could conceivably suck up all the air around her, and Bridge of Spies showed he needs to really impress to be in the conversation, even if he's starring in a BP nominee.

There's a big gap after that, but I guess:

7. James Franco. Will probably win the Globe, but could be a little too out-there for the Academy.

8. Steve Carell, Last Flag Flying? I don't know.

Odd that the top 6 are all from dramas. The Globe lineup for Actor (Comedy) should be pretty interesting. Franco, Carell (Battle of the Sexes), Nanjiani... who else?

GGs have no problem with Netflix. So I'd say Sandler.

Yeah, those look like the best bets. Thank you guys.

So I'm guessing (alphabetically):

Steve Carell, Battle of the Sexes
James Franco
Hugh Jackman, The Greatest Showman
Kumail Nanjiani
Donald Sutherland (assuming Leisure Seeker gets a qualifying run)

With Sandler as #6 and Kaluuya as #7. I think they'll give Get Out a Picture nod, but default to the higher profile names for Best Actor instead of its lead.

I am not too sure, maybe. I don't know what his chances are. Plus, he might not campaign enough to care about getting in.

Shit, might as well predict Stiller for The Meyerowitz Stories as well. I can't imagine anyone watching it and not at least thinking about him in some fashion afterward.

I liked Stiller a lot in both "Meyerowitz" and "Brad's Status" but I think Globes kinda hate him? I mean he had been in a lot of films that could score him a GG Comedy nom ("Mary", "Mitty", "Tropic", "Parents", "Tenenbaums", "Greenberg") but he was never nominated.