And the nominees for best supporting actress are...

My lineup feels too old, but I guess this is just one of those rare years where it happens.

1. Allison Janney, I, Tonya - So far Neon hasn't made any mistakes. As long as there isn't backlash about Tim League, or that it doesn't become controversial because I've seen some say that the domestic violence in the film comes across as trying to be humorous, she should have smooth sailing because she's very likeable and well-liked, already out there campaigning, and this category is basically between her and Metcalf for the win right now. I think she maintains the edge because her character seems more colorful, because she's worked more in film than Metcalf has, and also because Metcalf just doesn't seem like the type to campaign as much as Janney has been.

2. Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird - If she worked more in film, I might be tempted to predict her, but I think she'll be one of those character actor nominations where the nomination is the reward. Although I am surprised by how much Lady Bird has risen since after Telluride where I expected acting nominations, but wasn't sure about other categories because it didn't seem like typical Oscar bait. Now I wouldn't be surprised if it's nominated in Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay, so I guess Metcalf could win if they want to honor Lady Bird somewhere. For now I think Janney has this, but it just depends if one of their films overperforms nomination wise but not both, it might just go to whoever's film overperformed.

3. Holly Hunter, The Big Sick - Amazon seems to be only left with The Big Sick now, and it should do well as a crowdpleaser that got a lot of attention over the summer when there wasn't that much other Oscar fare yet. Plus, it's also topical because of 45 even moreso now because of the recent incident in NYC.

4. Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water - For awhile, I didn't want to predict her because I didn't think that she would get another filler nomination right away, but this category has like no one that now I have her in fourth and safely in.

5. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound - It's Netflix, but if they could almost get Idris Elba in during a more competitive year in Supporting Actor, I think Blige can get in based on her campaigning and her narrative of being a singer turned actress playing a blind woman. She'll probably hit SAG and probably the Globes and Critics Choice Awards, and that should be enough for her to the Oscar nomination considering how weak the rest of the field is.

6. Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread - She could definitely surprise, but I'm waiting before predicting her because DDL and Vicky Krieps could overshadow her. Plus, I'm not sure how awards friendly Phantom Thread will be overall.

7. Kristin Scott Thomas, Darkest Hour - She could coattail, but the film and her role don't seem strong enough for that to happen.

8. Melissa Leo, Novitiate - The hype after Sundance went nowhere. She could still make it because she has SPC behind her and she's out there campaigning, but I can't see many voters caring enough about this film to watch it when they have so many other screeners.

9. Tatiana Maslany, Stronger - Right before Stronger's opening weekend, I was feeling good about her chances because she's young, had the reviews, also seemed like she could get Globe and SAG nominations because she's already on the radar with those groups because of her highly praised work on Orphan Black. Then, Stronger flopped at the box office, so I'm not very sure now. It's possible because I could still see her and Gyllenhaal pulling off those Globe and SAG nominations, but I could also see Oscar just being predictable and going with the consensus 5.

10. Hong Chau, Downsizing - If this role weren't so problematic, I would predict her after the raves she got, and because Downsizing looks to be Paramount's only push especially if they want to try to recoup all the money spent on it by hoping that it does well enough awards wise that audiences will want to see it. I think it's too problematic though in this age of social media. Plus, Matt Damon seems to be a jinx this year, and I expect Downsizing to go the way of Suburbicon and The Great Wall not to mention how his name got attached to the Weinstein scandal.

Currently I predict:

Allison Janney: I, Tona,
Kristin Scott Thomas: Darkest Hour
Laurie Metcalf: Lady Bird
Mary J. Blige: Mudbound
Hong Chau: Downsizing

Blige, Hunter, Janney, Metcalf, Spencer. (Alt: Chau, Maslany)

I've had Blige pegged as my predicted winner for awhile now, and I'm still leaning in that direction. Janney is the safer choice, though.