morton
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Post by morton on Nov 20, 2017 5:07:46 GMT
Aw, it's almost like the old boards where I would keep changing my mind when we'd get early tweets, and like the first half of them would be all raves. Then the second half would be mixed.
Anyhow my feeling is that the person who spilled the tea earlier might be too young to appreciate something like The Post, or something like All the President's Men had it been released now. However sometimes the person is good at guessing what Oscar voters usual go for, so that worried me just a bit.
It might be more the person not getting the appeal of the film though because two reliable praise it at Letterboxd. One gave it a 3.5 stars and the other gave it 5 stars, and the one that gave it 5 stars.
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Post by therealcomicman117 on Nov 23, 2017 23:34:49 GMT
So somebody on another board said they saw this film, and said it was one of Spielberg's best films. This "user" is also usually very reliable. Hype!
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Nov 23, 2017 23:54:34 GMT
Feinberg has apparently seen it and moved it to number 2 in his BP predictions. Travers (who's taste has always been similar to the Academy) just moved it to number 2 as well. No word if he has seen it but that would make sense.
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Post by Pavan on Nov 24, 2017 7:00:21 GMT
So somebody on another board said they saw this film, and said it was one of Spielberg's best films. This "user" is also usually very reliable. Hype! Awesome
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Post by therealcomicman117 on Nov 24, 2017 15:18:54 GMT
So somebody on another board said they saw this film, and said it was one of Spielberg's best films. This "user" is also usually very reliable. Hype! Lol, that's not vague at all. It was a vague post, but the dude's seen the film, so there's at least a good sign.
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Post by FrancescoAbides on Nov 24, 2017 15:53:51 GMT
Lol, that's not vague at all. It was a vague post, but the dude's seen the film, so there's at least a good sign. who btw?
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Post by therealcomicman117 on Nov 24, 2017 18:21:33 GMT
User named Empirecity, it's on BOT (Box Office Theory). Dude works in the industry, he also raved about Dunkirk a month before it was released.
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Post by IceTruckDexter on Nov 26, 2017 17:43:54 GMT
Tom O'Neill saw it and he has it at #1. I don't buy it yet as a winner but if Spielberg can get a Best Picture nomination for Bridge of Spies and War Horse then there's no chance he's not getting in here.
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morton
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Post by morton on Nov 26, 2017 18:26:36 GMT
Apparently people will be able to officially tweet about it after midnight tonight according to Clayton Davis, but official reviews won't be out until December 6th.
While I'm not sure it's on par with something like Schindler's List, most of what I've heard except from the one person who I suspect wasn't ever going to be a big fan of a Spielberg/Streep/Hanks collaboration, has been extremely positive. There hasn't been a lot of hyperbole which sort of worries me as everything seems to get raves nowadays, but that could be a good sign too in that the bar won't be set even higher for it. With as fractured as the Best Picture race still seems and with it's narrative, I think it can still win.
I'm also growing more confident in Streep even if it doesn't win BP.
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Nov 26, 2017 18:49:28 GMT
Apparently people will be able to officially tweet about it after midnight tonight according to Clayton Davis, but official reviews won't be out until December 6th. While I'm not sure it's on par with something like Schindler's List, most of what I've heard except from the one person who I suspect wasn't ever going to be a big fan of a Spielberg/Streep/Hanks collaboration, has been extremely positive. There hasn't been a lot of hyperbole which sort of worries me as everything seems to get raves nowadays, but that could be a good sign too in that the bar won't be set even higher for it. With as fractured as the Best Picture race still seems and with it's narrative, I think it can still win. I'm also growing more confident in Streep even if it doesn't win BP. It really doesn't need to be on the level of Schindler's List or Saving Private Ryan to win. In this hyper-heated political climate, the subject matter will be enough to make up for it not topping Spielberg's career peaks, especially as I expect it to get respectable ink anyway. Lincoln and Bridge of Spies are often belittled as stuffy and more middle-tier as far as his filmography goes, yet they both landed in the 80s on MC, got BP-nominated and won Oscars. The same could conceivably happen here; the pundits all seem to agree with that. I'm especially confident that that'll be the case because we don't have a runaway frontrunner like La La Land, Boyhood/ Birdman or 12 Years a Slave/ Gravity. There's Three Billboards, but that's far from a consensus pick, and certainly not undeniable. In fact, looking at the entire decade, the only other year where the BP race was this fractured and lacking a surefire favorite at this point was 2015, and the ultimate winner back then was the tasteful journalism drama that hardly set the cinematic world alight but did tremendously well in a ranked ballot system because it was a safe consensus choice that basically everyone liked and ranked high. The Post is ripe for a similar performance, especially once Spielberg, Hanks and Streep begin to promote it. Timeliness will be key here. Finally, I agree re: Streep. Tapley recently said she'll make a run for number 4, and she apparently has a scene in the third act that's essentially a 10-minute monologue about the importance of the press. She, McDormand and Robbie all make sense as winners right now.
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Post by stephen on Nov 26, 2017 19:02:17 GMT
It really doesn't need to be on the level of Schindler's List or Saving Private Ryan to win. In this hyper-heated political climate, the subject matter will be enough to make up for it not topping Spielberg's career peaks, especially as I expect it to get respectable ink anyway. Lincoln and Bridge of Spies are often belittled as stuffy and more middle-tier as far as his filmography goes, yet they both landed in the 80s on MC, got BP-nominated and won Oscars. The same could conceivably happen here; the pundits all seem to agree with that. I'm especially confident that that'll be the case because we don't have a runaway frontrunner like La La Land, Boyhood/ Birdman or 12 Years a Slave/ Gravity. There's Three Billboards, but that's far from a consensus pick, and certainly not undeniable. In fact, looking at the entire decade, the only other year where the BP race was this fractured and lacking a surefire favorite at this point was 2015, and the ultimate winner back then was the tasteful journalism drama that hardly set the cinematic world alight but did tremendously well in a ranked ballot system because it was a safe consensus choice that basically everyone liked and ranked high. The Post is ripe for a similar performance, especially once Spielberg, Hanks and Streep begin to promote it. Timeliness will be key here. Finally, I agree re: Streep. Tapley recently said she'll make a run for number 4, and she apparently has a scene in the third act that's essentially a 10-minute monologue about the importance of the press. She, McDormand and Robbie all make sense as winners right now. To be entirely fair, the season hasn't yet really begun (NBR really is the starting point; the Spirits are all well and good, but with much of the competition ineligible, they don't really signify much except where the indie buzz is), and it's too early to see what a "runaway frontrunner" could be. But I do agree with pretty much all of your points. It could very well be this year's Spotlight: the prestige picture that nabs the win for being the safe consensus pick as well as them putting their thumb in Trump's eye. It's going to be a knock-down, drag-out fight for Best Actress, I think. I still think McDormand takes it, but I suspect Streep wins a big precursor on the way and makes it a nail-biter in the end.
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Post by quetee on Nov 26, 2017 19:20:19 GMT
Would be funny if Streep deserves a nod but gets snubbed this year. The race is too tight this year, she could easily get snubbed.
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Nov 26, 2017 19:53:59 GMT
To be entirely fair, the season hasn't yet really begun (NBR really is the starting point; the Spirits are all well and good, but with much of the competition ineligible, they don't really signify much except where the indie buzz is), and it's too early to see what a "runaway frontrunner" could be. But I do agree with pretty much all of your points. It could very well be this year's Spotlight: the prestige picture that nabs the win for being the safe consensus pick as well as them putting their thumb in Trump's eye. It's going to be a knock-down, drag-out fight for Best Actress, I think. I still think McDormand takes it, but I suspect Streep wins a big precursor on the way and makes it a nail-biter in the end. Oh, absolutely. It's impossible to pin down with total certainty what the ultimate frontrunner(s) will be when all we have to go off of is an indie group with no (or little?) Academy crossover, but what I mean is that by the end of November, after all the fall festivals are behind us including NYFF and AFI, the race has more or less begun to take preliminary shape and one or two contenders concentrate most of the winning talk. Of course sometimes that consensus turns out to be wrong: I remember by this point in 2014 most of us had already anointed Boyhood as the winner, and it wasn't until the guilds began to roll out that we realized just where the industry's passion really lied, but still, we did have a frontrunner (one that won big at the Globes and the BAFTAs at least, so the early prognostications weren't completely off-base). This year the support is more spread out, which leaves an opening for The Post to hit the ground running since it doesn't look like it'll have a La La Land-type potential juggernaut to bring down. As for Best Actress, the precursors are as big a mystery to me as the Oscar. The Globes I'm pretty confident about: Robbie wins Comedy, Streep takes Drama over McDormand. They passed on the latter 5 times including for Fargo and Olive Kitteridge, they wouldn't hesitate to do it again, especially in favor of someone they'd mail a trophy to for tying her shoes. Plus, like Morton points out, Streep's Cecil B. DeMille speech was such a highlight they'll probably take the chance to recreate it and get them ratings/after-show buzz. SAG and BAFTA are a little trickier. The former I can see going either way, since we know Three Billboards and I, Tonya play well with audiences and we can expect the same to be true for The Post; plus, Streep and McDormand are widely revered and Robbie is a rising star with it-girl appeal, so they could all have popular support. I really don't know. The BAFTA I think is the likeliest to be the big one that goes to Streep and solidifies this race as a nail-biter (or locks it down in case she also wins SAG): The Post should be more appealing to the British block than I, Tonya and Three Billboards, as they often pass on contenders that are so thoroughly and specifically linked to American culture. Also, they were huge on Bridge of Spies (9 nominations including Film and Director, and a win for Rylance), so they should really go for this.
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morton
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Post by morton on Nov 26, 2017 20:36:49 GMT
To be entirely fair, the season hasn't yet really begun (NBR really is the starting point; the Spirits are all well and good, but with much of the competition ineligible, they don't really signify much except where the indie buzz is), and it's too early to see what a "runaway frontrunner" could be. But I do agree with pretty much all of your points. It could very well be this year's Spotlight: the prestige picture that nabs the win for being the safe consensus pick as well as them putting their thumb in Trump's eye. It's going to be a knock-down, drag-out fight for Best Actress, I think. I still think McDormand takes it, but I suspect Streep wins a big precursor on the way and makes it a nail-biter in the end. Oh, absolutely. It's impossible to pin down with total certainty what the ultimate frontrunner(s) will be when all we have to go off of is an indie group with no (or little?) Academy crossover, but what I mean is that by the end of November, after all the fall festivals are behind us including NYFF and AFI, the race has more or less begun to take preliminary shape and one or two contenders concentrate most of the winning talk. Of course sometimes that consensus turns out to be wrong: I remember by this point in 2014 most of us had already anointed Boyhood as the winner, and it wasn't until the guilds began to roll out that we realized just where the industry's passion really lied, but still, we did have a frontrunner (one that won big at the Globes and the BAFTAs at least, so the early prognostications weren't completely off-base). This year the support is more spread out, which leaves an opening for The Post to hit the ground running since it doesn't look like it'll have a La La Land-type potential juggernaut to bring down. As for Best Actress, the precursors are as big a mystery to me as the Oscar. The Globes I'm pretty confident about: Robbie wins Comedy, Streep takes Drama over McDormand. They passed on the latter 5 times including for Fargo and Olive Kitteridge, they wouldn't hesitate to do it again, especially in favor of someone they'd mail a trophy to for tying her shoes. Plus, like Morton points out, Streep's Cecil B. DeMille speech was such a highlight they'll probably take the chance to recreate it and get them ratings/after-show buzz. SAG and BAFTA are a little trickier. The former I can see going either way, since we know Three Billboards and I, Tonya play well with audiences and we can expect the same to be true for The Post; plus, Streep and McDormand are widely revered and Robbie is a rising star with it-girl appeal, so they could all have popular support. I really don't know. The BAFTA I think is the likeliest to be the big one that goes to Streep and solidifies this race as a nail-biter (or locks it down in case she also wins SAG): The Post should be more appealing to the British block than I, Tonya and Three Billboards, as they often pass on contenders that are so thoroughly and specifically linked to American culture. Also, they were huge on Bridge of Spies (9 nominations including Film and Director, and a win for Rylance), so they should really go for this. Great analysis as usual. I guess I could see McDormand winning at BAFTA; although, that might be the only place Hawkins might put up a fight, just because McDonagh is British/Irish, and his other films have done well at BAFTA. I agree though that it could be too American for them though. I think that will definitely hurt I, Tonya, and I see someone like Manville winning Supporting Actress because I don't think Janney will be strong enough to win BAFTA too. They do love Streep though. I'm not sure about SAG because if it's between McDormand and Streep, it will be the first time that someone has actually managed to win SAG Actress twice. It's bound to happen someday, but it's sort of weird that it hasn't yet. I would give Streep the edge just because I think like last year, most of the speeches this year will all be a big F-U to Trump, and while I could see McDormand doing that, I think it would create more of a moment if it was Streep since I can imagine Trump will be tweeting up a storm about The Post and her Globes win, if she does win because he's still bitter about her speech last year. I could see SAG going with Robbie too though just because she's never won, and voters may see it as a big deal to win twice there which may hurt McDormand and Streep if they're not completely slam dunk performances. I still think Globes go with Streep because duh, you're right they would give her an award for just tying her shoes. She gives another killer speech which goes viral, and Trump gets butthurt again. Other award voters love the idea of sticking it to Trump and possibly getting a Streep moment that gets them attention too, so she ends up winning everything else. If McDormand hadn't won before, or there was an undeniable "it" girl and/or performance, I don't think award groups would mind passing over Streep at all again, but all of the other possible nominees have their minuses too. McDormand already won, and she's not the type to campaign at all. I don't necessarily think a person has to campaign if the performance is there, but in this case given that she's already won, and they also have the option of possibly awarding Rockwell from the film, I feel like campaigning wouldn't have hurt. I don't know what's going on with The Shape of Water. The role seems very baity, but I could see this just being a mostly technical thing and missing out on acting nominations now, just because it seems to have lost momentum since winning Venice. I actually think it would have been better off had it lost there because it just wasn't the type of film that could be labeled as the frontrunner, even if it was only briefly. It needed to be the underdog and surprise people, but now there's the feeling I see with a good number of reviews now that it was a very good film, but it wasn't Golden Lion worthy. Ronan's role just seems too atypical to win in Best Actress, and if they want to award it somewhere, Best Supporting Actress is most likely where they do so. Robbie has the "it" girl factor, and she's got good reviews, but I don't know if it's the whole package to win. It's not quite a Monster transformation, and I don't think it will be on the level of La La Land, Room, Silver Linings Playbook, or Black Swan. Those were top 5 films, and I don't know that I, Tonya will get in for a Best Picture nomination. It might, but it would be right on the edge. I think the nomination will end up being her reward just because it's not quite in either category. I understand why she went the fat suit way, but honestly she probably would have been a slamdunk if she had went that far because most everyone would be like "A girl that hot actually risked being fat for a role. She better with the Oscar."
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Post by moonman157 on Nov 26, 2017 20:44:30 GMT
Schindler's List and Saving Private Ryan are two of Spielberg's weaker films, massively overrated, torn apart by their hideous attempt to use a Hollywood formula in dealing with serious history that it ends up massively disrespecting.
Bridge of Spies and Lincoln are both far better films.
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Post by stephen on Nov 26, 2017 20:46:01 GMT
Schindler's List and Saving Private Ryan are two of Spielberg's weaker films, massively overrated, torn apart by their hideous attempt to use a Hollywood formula in dealing with serious history that it ends up massively disrespecting. Bridge of Spies and Lincoln are both far better films. We don't agree much, but yes, Lincoln/Bridge of Spies are indeed better. I don't harbor the issues with Schindler's List you do, but I think Spielberg's latter-day historical pieces ( War Horse aside) are stronger.
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Post by stephen on Nov 26, 2017 21:06:34 GMT
Great analysis as usual. I guess I could see McDormand winning at BAFTA; although, that might be the only place Hawkins might put up a fight, just because McDonagh is British/Irish, and his other films have done well at BAFTA. I agree though that it could be too American for them though. I think that will definitely hurt I, Tonya, and I see someone like Manville winning Supporting Actress because I don't think Janney will be strong enough to win BAFTA too. They do love Streep though. I'm not sure about SAG because if it's between McDormand and Streep, it will be the first time that someone has actually managed to win SAG Actress twice. It's bound to happen someday, but it's sort of weird that it hasn't yet. I would give Streep the edge just because I think like last year, most of the speeches this year will all be a big F-U to Trump, and while I could see McDormand doing that, I think it would create more of a moment if it was Streep since I can imagine Trump will be tweeting up a storm about The Post and her Globes win, if she does win because he's still bitter about her speech last year. I could see SAG going with Robbie too though just because she's never won, and voters may see it as a big deal to win twice there which may hurt McDormand and Streep if they're not completely slam dunk performances. I still think Globes go with Streep because duh, you're right they would give her an award for just tying her shoes. She gives another killer speech which goes viral, and Trump gets butthurt again. Other award voters love the idea of sticking it to Trump and possibly getting a Streep moment that gets them attention too, so she ends up winning everything else. If McDormand hadn't won before, or there was an undeniable "it" girl and/or performance, I don't think award groups would mind passing over Streep at all again, but all of the other possible nominees have their minuses too. McDormand already won, and she's not the type to campaign at all. I don't necessarily think a person has to campaign if the performance is there, but in this case given that she's already won, and they also have the option of possibly awarding Rockwell from the film, I feel like campaigning wouldn't have hurt. I don't know what's going on with The Shape of Water. The role seems very baity, but I could see this just being a mostly technical thing and missing out on acting nominations now, just because it seems to have lost momentum since winning Venice. I actually think it would have been better off had it lost there because it just wasn't the type of film that could be labeled as the frontrunner, even if it was only briefly. It needed to be the underdog and surprise people, but now there's the feeling I see with a good number of reviews now that it was a very good film, but it wasn't Golden Lion worthy. Ronan's role just seems too atypical to win in Best Actress, and if they want to award it somewhere, Best Supporting Actress is most likely where they do so. Robbie has the "it" girl factor, and she's got good reviews, but I don't know if it's the whole package to win. It's not quite a Monster transformation, and I don't think it will be on the level of La La Land, Room, Silver Linings Playbook, or Black Swan. Those were top 5 films, and I don't know that I, Tonya will get in for a Best Picture nomination. It might, but it would be right on the edge. I think the nomination will end up being her reward just because it's not quite in either category. I understand why she went the fat suit way, but honestly she probably would have been a slamdunk if she had went that far because most everyone would be like "A girl that hot actually risked being fat for a role. She better with the Oscar." McDormand feels like a very strong bet for BAFTA. Even though it's an American story at heart, Martin McDonagh is a national treasure over there, and it got mad love from BIFA. Plus McDormand has never won there, whereas Streep won fairly recently. I know that doesn't really matter too much in the grand scheme of things, but if they love the film enough, it's a point in Frannie Mac's favor.
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Post by Zeb31 on Nov 26, 2017 21:37:02 GMT
Ooh, that's right, I forgot McDonagh's British. In that case, McDormand's chances for the BAFTA are a lot better than I pegged them to be for a moment. Should be a tight race there too, which only makes the season more exciting.
Also, now that Morton mentioned her, I really don't know what to expect when it comes to Hawkins. She looked like she could be top 2 for a while there, and then she just... kinda disappeared. The Shape of Water buzz should pick back up starting next week when it debuts in theaters, but she's been really MIA on the campaign trail so far, skipping the roundtables and specials and whatnot. Streep doesn't need it and we already knew McDormand wasn't gonna do it, but Robbie, Ronan and Chastain are everywhere. Even Winslet, Stone and Lawrence have been showing up at some events, and then there's the likes of Krieps (who'll benefit tremendously from her film's clout and is an unknown player as far as campaigning goes) and Dench (who's such a beloved figure and has such a considerable base of supporters that she doesn't need to put in that much work, even if I don't think she'll make it at the end of the day).
Hawkins, on the other hand, is a foreign character actress in a genre project that's shaping up (hehe) more and more to be a directing/tech threat rather than an acting player, and she's been nowhere so far (that I know of). She really needs the exposure to solidify her status in the race and keep herself in voters' minds, but right now it looks like she's mostly staying out of it, and it's not like her performance is an undeniable Cotillard/Blanchett-level showcase. Some folks at AW are inexplicably convinced that she's #1 with a bullet and the frontrunner for the win, and I really don't see the reasoning behind that other than wishful thinking. I still have her in the top 5, but I'd say she's the most vulnerable for a snub right now. She's struck me as a possible Adams 2016 case since day one (popular sci-fi film, misses out to other actresses with more passion/#1 support), and the fact that she's not campaigning signals that that could be the case. I don't read too much into the relative low buzz right now because it'll kick up again soon, and the Gotham/Indie Spirits misses aren't death knells, but skipping on campaigning is a major red flag.
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Post by Pavan on Nov 27, 2017 7:34:09 GMT
I could see a split in the major 5
Best Picture- The Post Best Director- Dunkirk Best Actor- Darkest Hour Best Actress- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Best Screenplay (original)- Ladybird
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Post by mhynson27 on Nov 27, 2017 7:49:35 GMT
I could see a split in the major 5 Best Picture- The Post Best Director- Dunkirk Best Actor- Darkest Hour Best Actress- Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri Best Screenplay (original)- Ladybird Split in the major 6 as I highly imagine CMBYM will take adapted screenplay.
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Post by bob-coppola on Nov 27, 2017 17:18:11 GMT
The race this year should be really exciting. I think The Post could definetly win BP, even thought Three Billboards should give it a run for its money. I can totally see a big split on the winners. - Blade Runner 2049 and Dunkirk dominating the techs - I, Tonya getting two acting wins for Robbie and Janney (even thought Streep, McDormand and Ronan make a lot of sense as winners as well). Rockwell winning for Supporting Actor and Oldman for Lead Actor. - Lady Bird winning Original Screenplay, CMBYN winning Adapted Screenplay - Del Toro winning for BD, since the Academy seems to love latino directors doing genre pictures - Three Billboards and The Post fighting to death for BP, with CMBYN or TSOW running around to benefit if they end up splitting too much votes.
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Post by FrancescoAbides on Nov 27, 2017 18:38:28 GMT
The race this year should be really exciting. I think The Post could definetly win BP, even thought Three Billboards should give it a run for its money. I can totally see a big split on the winners. - Blade Runner 2049 and Dunkirk dominating the techs - I, Tonya getting two acting wins for Robbie and Janney (even thought Streep, McDormand and Ronan make a lot of sense as winners as well). Rockwell winning for Supporting Actor and Oldman for Lead Actor. - Lady Bird winning Original Screenplay, CMBYN winning Adapted Screenplay - Del Toro winning for BD, since the Academy seems to love latino directors doing genre pictures - Three Billboards and The Post fighting to death for BP, with CMBYN or TSOW running around to benefit if they end up splitting too much votes. Don't you think Three Billboards is gonna Original Screenplay instead of Lady Bird? It would certainly help the movie to win Best Picture.
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Post by bob-coppola on Nov 28, 2017 1:22:47 GMT
The race this year should be really exciting. I think The Post could definetly win BP, even thought Three Billboards should give it a run for its money. I can totally see a big split on the winners. - Blade Runner 2049 and Dunkirk dominating the techs - I, Tonya getting two acting wins for Robbie and Janney (even thought Streep, McDormand and Ronan make a lot of sense as winners as well). Rockwell winning for Supporting Actor and Oldman for Lead Actor. - Lady Bird winning Original Screenplay, CMBYN winning Adapted Screenplay - Del Toro winning for BD, since the Academy seems to love latino directors doing genre pictures - Three Billboards and The Post fighting to death for BP, with CMBYN or TSOW running around to benefit if they end up splitting too much votes. Don't you think Three Billboards is gonna Original Screenplay instead of Lady Bird? It would certainly help the movie to win Best Picture. Three Billboards and The Post make excellent arguments for a OS win, but they'll have to give Lady Bird a major prize. It's the best-reviewed movie on Rotten Tomatoes history and is doing super well for an indie on the box office. Screenplay and Best Actress are the most likely categories where it could win (they'll certainly nominate Gerwig and the movie itself for BD and BP, but it'll be tough to win), and out of these two, a victory for its writing is the most probable and undeniable.
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Post by FrancescoAbides on Nov 28, 2017 1:55:35 GMT
Don't you think Three Billboards is gonna Original Screenplay instead of Lady Bird? It would certainly help the movie to win Best Picture. Three Billboards and The Post make excellent arguments for a OS win, but they'll have to give Lady Bird a major prize. It's the best-reviewed movie on Rotten Tomatoes history and is doing super well for an indie on the box office. Screenplay and Best Actress are the most likely categories where it could win (they'll certainly nominate Gerwig and the movie itself for BD and BP, but it'll be tough to win), and out of these two, a victory for its writing is the most probable and undeniable. I get it. But if either Three Billboards or The Post were crowned as Best Picture, they would need to win another Oscar besides the main one, and probably even another one. The Post would have to win Original Screenplay and possibly another random Oscar or Directing or Best Actress, Three Billboards would have to win either Best Actress or Original Screenplay (or even Supporting Actor). But I highly doubt we will have another Spotlight situation (Best Picture with only 2 Oscars), so this year's BP will win at least 3 Oscars, that's my bet -- My bet is that Three Billboards is gonna "steal" Original Screenplay from Lady Bird, Frances is gonna win Best Actress and the movie will get BP. But yeah, this is a weird, unpredictable year.
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Post by Zeb31 on Nov 28, 2017 2:08:31 GMT
Don't you think Three Billboards is gonna Original Screenplay instead of Lady Bird? It would certainly help the movie to win Best Picture. Three Billboards and The Post make excellent arguments for a OS win, but they'll have to give Lady Bird a major prize. It's the best-reviewed movie on Rotten Tomatoes history and is doing super well for an indie on the box office. Screenplay and Best Actress are the most likely categories where it could win (they'll certainly nominate Gerwig and the movie itself for BD and BP, but it'll be tough to win), and out of these two, a victory for its writing is the most probable and undeniable. I really, really don't think the Academy will see it that way. Stronger contenders go home empty-handed all the time, even when we think they'll HAVE to be rewarded somewhere. Hell, American Hustle went 0/10, and that was #3 for BP. As much as I'm expecting to love it, I'm still not 100% confident the Academy will go for Lady Bird as hard as critics and arthouse audiences seem to have. It has the raves, but it's still a quirky female-led teen dramedy from Greta Gerwig, which doesn't exactly scream undeniable with this particular group. Ronan I'd say is 4th most likely for the Actress win; Metcalf is runner-up, but Janney looks poised for a J.K. Simmons-type sweep; and since we both agree that BP will most likely go to one of Three Billboards and The Post, it makes sense that one of them will take Screenplay as well, since they're both (I assume) writing showcases. I suppose Lady Bird is one too, I'll give you that, but looking at all of this century's BP winners that were original scripts, The Artist is the only one post-Gladiator that lost Screenplay, and not only was that silent, Hazanavicius was also up against an American legend delivering his most well-liked project in decades and getting late-period masterwork talk. Other than that, the others all won. The best comparison to Lady Bird in this category is Juno, but No Country, TWBB and Atonement were all in Adapted, and Spotlight (journalist heroes) and Birdman (offbeat dark comedy) are strong parallels to Three Billposts.
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