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Post by SergeantTibbs on Oct 23, 2017 0:05:42 GMT
Last month's frontrunners were Oldman, Hawkins, Dafoe and Janney.
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Post by Sharbs on Oct 23, 2017 0:10:18 GMT
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
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Post by DeepArcher on Oct 23, 2017 0:10:38 GMT
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour. (Day-Lewis is a *super* close second though.) Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project. Mary J. Blige, Mudbound.
So, no changes yet for me.
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Oct 23, 2017 2:46:21 GMT
Oldman McDormand Rockwell Janney
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Post by mhynson27 on Oct 23, 2017 3:55:28 GMT
Oldman McDormand Dafoe Janney
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morton
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Post by morton on Oct 23, 2017 4:51:20 GMT
Best Actor: Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour - They've probably already went ahead and engraved it with his name considering his closest competition might be a 22 year old actor, and a veteran actor that would be going for a record fourth win in leading.
Best Actress: Margot Robbie, I, Tonya - I feel like Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress are almost done deals now, and Best Supporting Actor feels like it's between either Willem Dafoe or Sam Rockwell, but I still don't really know yet for Best Actress. I think it's between three actresses (McDormand, Robbie, and Streep), but maybe I'm overestimating Robbie and Streep and underestimating Hawkins.
With McDormand, I could definitely see her winning a second leading Oscar especially since Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri looks like the Best Picture winner to me or at least in the top 2 or 3 at least, and because she's very well respected and it's been awhile since her last win.
With Streep, on paper it seems like it should be a very big player, but I thought that a trailer would be out about it already or about to come out. Even Phantom Thread which I pegged to be the last Oscar hopeful out of the gate will have a trailer out this coming week and has a website already set up for it. Plus, Sasha Stone heard buzz, and it doesn't seem that good. I know she can be biased, but usually she's biased in Spielberg's favor, so I'm a bit worried that her of all people is putting out bad or questionable buzz about it. Plus, I'll keep saying this, but even though I believe she'll win a fourth Oscar, probably even a fifth Oscar, there's always the danger with Streep that voters will think that she can win some other time because she's always being nominated.
With Hawkins, I think the role is baity, but unfortunately she doesn't fit the typical mold of who usually wins Best Actress lately. Trends can be broken, but I can't see her campaigning like a Larson or Stone, and The Shape of Water being a genre film, I think works against her too. Still she could perhaps win the Globe for Drama and win BAFTA and that combination might be enough depending on who takes SAG and the Globe for Comedy. It seems like McDormand should win the Globe for Comedy, but it seems like such a Globes thing for Margot Robbie to win. I mean she's no Madonna, but she's still a rising star that I could see them wanting to annoint as a Globe winner.
This brings me to Robbie. It's totally a no guts, no glory call, but I think it works in her favor this year that McDormand and Streep have already both won in leading, and Hawkins is such an atypical winner because I probably wouldn't go with her if I thought one of the other nominees had a better narrative. Sure she doesn't quite have the transformation factor of a Theron or Portman which scares me a bit in picking her, but she does deglam, produced it, and I know will campaign her ass off. Plus, while she's not quite on the fame level that Lawrence or even Stone were, she's definitely a rising star that Hollywood is trying to make happen, so she's got the "it" girl quality going for her.
Best Supporting Actor: Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - Dafoe has the veteran narrative, but Rockwell has worked a long time and with a lot of different voters too. Plus, I think they'll want to award TBOEM with at least one acting award in addition to a screenplay award if it wins Best Picture or is runner-up.
Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney, I, Tonya - I'm so happy Neon didn't mess the promotion of I, Tonya up, not only for Janney's sake, but also for mine because I have no idea who would win if Janney weren't a factor. Metcalf has the raves, but she doesn't really work that much in film, and honestly I can't see her campaigning that much. I know Mo'Nique didn't really campaign, but Mo'Nique had such a memorable performance plus Precious was nominated across the board that I don't think it mattered whether Mo'Nique campaigned or not. For a small film like Lady Bird which I'm still not sure will appeal to enough voters to be nominated for Best Picture, I think that Metcalf would have to campaign. Anyhow besides Metcalf, I guess there's Hunter and Spencer, but I can't see them winning a second Oscar for those roles. I guess they'd probably go with the little girl, Brooklynn Prince, but maybe she's still going leading?!?
Anyway, it doesn't matter because Neon is doing a great job so far, so Janney should sweep the televised awards except maybe the BAFTA, but if she loses there, I don't think it will be enough to derail her momentum.
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Post by SergeantTibbs on Oct 23, 2017 6:18:39 GMT
Morton, you're far from alone in predicting Robbie. I definitely think he has the next best shot behind McDormand, who I'm predicting between her and Rockwell for Three Billboards' acting win, and I'm more sure about Dafoe than Robbie.
I disagree with you that Janney wouldn't campaign, she was already campaigning at the Emmys when I Tonya had just been picked up.
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Post by ingmarhepburn on Oct 23, 2017 6:54:15 GMT
Oldman McDormand Rockwell Janney
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morton
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Post by morton on Oct 23, 2017 17:48:19 GMT
Morton, you're far from alone in predicting Robbie. I definitely think he has the next best shot behind McDormand, who I'm predicting between her and Rockwell for Three Billboards' acting win, and I'm more sure about Dafoe than Robbie. I disagree with you that Janney wouldn't campaign, she was already campaigning at the Emmys when I Tonya had just been picked up. Sorry I meant to say that I don't think Laurie Metcalf would really campaign that much. Well I guess if there was a good possibility that she thought she could win, maybe she might. I know Janney will definitely campaign and is already doing so which is why I'm predicting her right now as the winner because she has the role, is campaigning, and while never been nominated before, she's worked with so many other Oscar winners and nominees, and SAG loves her.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 23, 2017 18:06:42 GMT
Oldman (now after watching the trailer for Phantom Thread, I can see Daniel Day-Lewis giving Oldman a run for the money.) Streep (the only one who could hold a threat is Margot Robbie, but I doubt it. Hawkins have no chance. McDormand very little.) Janney Rockwell (He is actually the reason McDormand is not a bigger contender in best actress. He acts circles around everyone in the film, far and away MVP. McDormand is fine but nothing we haven't already seen from her.)
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Post by thomasjerome on Oct 23, 2017 18:23:47 GMT
Best Actor: Gary Oldman - "Darkest Hour". Duh.
Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe - "The Florida Project". Career-best raves. True, he has a subtle role but he will also benefit from his impressive career/filmography. I doubt they'll suddenly give Rockwell a win after snubbing him so many times.
Best Actress: Frances McDormand - "Three Billboards". Very hard one to predict really.
Best Supporting Actress: Allison Janney - "I, Tonya". Neon bought her an award already, so they seem to be not messing around and they'll probably push some good campaign around the film.
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Oct 23, 2017 21:50:47 GMT
Oldman Robbie Rockwell Janney
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Oct 23, 2017 22:38:57 GMT
Oldman Hawkins Stuhlburg Janney
Changed from Dafoe to Stuhlburg because I think the Academy is going to go hard for Call Me By Your Name and from what I hear his character is very "woke" so they will feel good about themselves for voting for him. I also heard he has a really big monologue that is getting lots of attention.
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Post by notacrook on Oct 24, 2017 0:09:05 GMT
Oldman McDormand (could easily be Hawkins though) Dafoe Janney
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Post by joephoenix on Oct 24, 2017 13:31:47 GMT
Oldman McDormand Dafoe Janney
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Post by alexanderblanchett on Oct 25, 2017 15:37:21 GMT
Oldman, Robbie, Dafoe, Janney
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Post by quetee on Oct 25, 2017 16:45:05 GMT
Everybody starting to have same answers now so we gotta think outside the box.
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Post by TheAlwaysClassy on Oct 25, 2017 18:53:39 GMT
Oldman Hawkins Dafoe Janney
Year of the vets.
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