Biggest Locks per Acting category

No one's a lock in October. But Oldman and McDormand are the closest things to it right now. Robbie and Janney have good buzz but an unproven studio, so I'm leery to call them safe until the season really gets going. Hell, I can see Janney getting in and Robbie missing out entirely because Best Actress looks stacked as hell. Dafoe has A24 and is also getting strong marks, but I wanna see how The Florida Project rides the initial wave first.

Streep and Day-Lewis are also probably going to get in if their films are well-received, but I'll leave them out for now.

Whatever doubts I had about the Academy not warming up to Three Billboards' dark humor were dispersed when it won the TIFF Audience Award. That shows it plays well with crowds (which I honestly didn't think was gonna be the case after the trailer), and the widespread critical raves don't hurt either. That, plus the strength of her own reviews and the fact that she has Fox Searchlight backing her, are why I think McDormand is safe for the nom and makes a lot of sense as the winner.

I, Tonya also proved it's an audience favorite, but like Stephen said, Neon is still untested when it comes to the awards circuit and Best Actress is unusually strong this year. Yes, Janney is the Supporting frontrunner and the closest thing the category has to a lock, but she has a lot more working in her favor than Robbie does, like a complete lack of viable competition that has us struggling to find 5 names to fill out our predictions, rave reviews with near-universal best-in-show mentions, and being a lot more respected in general after decades in an industry that's long showered her television work with a flood of accolades.

Now compare that to Robbie: Best Actress has like 7 or 8 serious, realistic contenders playing musical chairs (that's not even counting people like Stone and Bening, who are all the way down rounding out the top 10 but would actually be threats for #4 or #5 slots in most years), she doesn't have the flat-out raves that Janney does, and she's still relatively new to the scene, gunning for a welcome-to-the-club nod. Janney can be a lock and sweep without Robbie getting the same treatment, especially since that'd require I, Tonya to be a Dallas Buyers Club-level player.

Neon are showing signs that they're willing to put in the footwork (they just bought a Hollywood Film Award, for one), but if anyone's at risk of suffering from their inexperience, it's Robbie. The film could wind up being seen by a small pool of Academy voters and Janney would still be in because who the fuck else is there, but Robbie needs that #1 support. Like I said, I have her in 4th place right now and could actually conceive of her winning, because she has the right film, the right profile (likable ingenue that's been in Hollywood's good graces for a while now) and a committed studio, but then again, I can also imagine her falling short at the eleventh hour if other contenders surge, so she's not set in stone just yet.

(Also, I really, really don't think this will go anywhere, but in the season of Weinsteingate, there could be some faint backlash against Neon considering the whole Tim League/Devin Faraci hoopla. You never know what a rival studio could choose to exploit.)

Just to be clear, I agree with you re: Hawkins. She's a major player, but like you, I can also see her go the way of Amy Adams 2016 thanks to her film's genre (though I hear it's a showier, more actor-friendly part than Arrival, so she could dodge that fate). It's just that right now, the same ("makes sense but could reasonably get left out") goes for everyone other than McDormand (and most likely Streep, once we hear word on The Post, because that'd have to be a colossal bomb for her to miss with that role, that project and that subject matter in a year this politically charged).

Co-signed on everything here. I could actually see Robbie missing, then getting nominated and potentially winning for a lesser performance run by a more experienced studio.

I'd say:

1. McDormand
2. Hawkins
3. Streep
4. Robbie

5. Ronan
6. Dench
7. Chastain

8. Winslet

9. Bening

Don't see anyone else getting in, and even Bening might be a stretch.

At the moment

Lead Actor: Gary Oldman
Lead Actress: Frances McDormand, Sally Hawkins
Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe
Supporting Actress: Allison Janney

Excellent analysis. I almost consider Streep a lock because of who she is, but I am a bit worried that there's no trailer yet. It seems like it's been screening though, so it seems like it should be released this year. There's also that bad buzz, but who knows how that will pan out. Streep can probably survive unless it's deep red, and even then she might be able to given who she is, and the narrative of the film especially with everything that went on today and will continue to unfold in Washington. 

Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri just won another audience award over the weekend at the Twin Cities Film Festival making it the sixth audience award of the season that it's won, while it's closest competition only has two audience awards, so I think it's the frontrunner at least until The Post is finally widely screened. I don't really think McDormand or Rockwell miss, but I wouldn't say that they're as locked as someone like Oldman is though for various reasons. McDormand because I don't really think she campaigns, so it's possible with Best Actress looking competitive that she misses. Probably not, but Oldman feels a tad safer to me, imo, even if his film doesn't seem as well received as I thought it was going to be, because of who he is playing and how weak his category is. Rockwell I think is probably in too, but since he's never been nominated before, I do worry that he could be overlooked again. 

I agree with you about Janney too. It's fortunate for her that she's in a pretty weak category as far as possible winners, at least I feel that way this year. There seems to be a number of competitors, but no one seems to have exactly all the right components aside from Janney to win. More importantly going by her numerous Emmy and SAG wins, she's obviously well loved by her fellow actors, and I think she's someone that just needed the right supporting role, which it seems like she has now, to win the Oscar. 

Hawkins seems likely because her role is supposed to be very baity, but I also have the same concerns because of Amy Adams missing out last year for Arrival. Plus, Adams is or at least was an Oscar darling at one time, yet they still went with a newcomer who was her film's only Oscar nomination despite Arrival being nominated for 8 Oscars including Best Picture and Best Director. Plus, it feels like The Shape of Water has lost momentum since losing at TIFF. I'm sure that once it gets closer to when it opens, momentum will kick up again, but it feels like at the moment TBOBM is just chugging away keeping its momentum or that The Post could just swoop in and end up sweeping all the awards. 

I have no idea about Robbie. I think there's a path for a win, but I could see her missing the nomination too. Unless The Post totally bombs which seems unlikely, it seems like McDormand, Streep, and Hawkins are very likely, and while there's two spots now that Winslet is probably out, it could be Dench and Ronan instead of Dench and Robbie or Ronan and Robbie. I have Robbie in fourth too right now, but I think she could easily miss depending on how much passion there is for Dench and Ronan. Dench's film is only at 57 at MC, but it's one of the few successes of fall, and they obviously love her. I don't know if she can get in, in such a competitive year, but there's always at least a few nominations that most Oscar prognosticators groan over, and Dench seems like she could be one of those this year. Lady Bird feels like the opposite in that critics love it, but it doesn't feel like typical Oscar bait that gets in like Dench playing Queen Victoria. 

If Robbie picks up any big critics' wins, wins the Comedy/Musical Globe, and I, Tonya starts picking up other nominations at the televised precursors except Janney and Robbie, I would feel much better about predicting Robbie. Things could easily go the opposite direction, and while Neon has done a great job so far, I also wonder about any possible backlash coming later. 


When those photos of her as Queen Elizabeth I came out, I thought she pretty much clinched the Best Supporting Actress race for next year because everyone was so shocked about how "ugly" she looked. Of course, it depends on how big her role actually turns out, the critical reception of the film, and of course the other nominees, but if she is nominated this year, loses, and manages to get nominated next year for Mary Queen of Scots, I think she would be a good bet. It's being distributed by Focus, some voters may feel that she should have won this year, and of course the deglamming factor would be a big factor. 

I second everything that Stephen said. I'm not counting on awards groups to throw any weight behind Wonder Wheel because Allen is toxic in the season of Weinstein/Spaceygate, even if I don't agree with that, and the reviews just aren't there to justify honoring such a controversial project. But I have Winslet at #8, ahead of other likely also-rans, because she's already out there hustling (see the Hollywood Film Award she picked up) and gearing up to hit the campaign trail hard once the season kicks into full speed, so she'll put in the footwork. Plus, she's obviously beloved by her peers. The fact that she was a realistic possibility for the Supporting Actress win two years ago after something of a drought period following her Oscar win, for a perceived box-office/awards disappointment with no nominations outside of acting, over competitors with stronger projects and better career momentum, shows what a pull she has. That (plus the near-unanimous praise she's getting even from those who aren't into Wonder Wheel overall) is why I'm not counting her out 100% yet.

Victoria & Abdul is actually far stronger than Battle of the Sexes. It's the former, not the latter, that has good box office, since it's overperforming at the specialty circuit while Stone's film just kind of fizzled out in wide release and seems to have completely deflated at this point. A September release has to make more of an impact to stay in the conversation by the time the ballots are out, and Victoria & Abdul is the only one of the two to be performing within those expectations. If this were 2015, I'd say Stone would scrape by, but it's just too strong a season for her to get the necessary #1 support. Not that I think Dench is a lock or anything; I'm fully expecting her to hit a few precursors but miss out with on nominations morning, but the woman is Hollywood royalty, has the BO receipts to show for it and stars in the kind of safe British monarchy costume drama that a contingent of Academy voters loyally flock to every year. #6 seems about right for her.

As for Kruger, she's basically a much lower-profile Kirsten Dunst in 2011: highly lauded Cannes-winning turn in small-budget arthouse project distributed by Magnolia in a very packed year for Best Actress. We know how that played out the last time, and Dunst had a lot more people talking about her back then.

As for Fonda, you mean for that Netflix film with Robert Redford? I had to stop and think about that one for a second, I thought you meant Mirren for The Leisure Seeker.