fotodude
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Post by fotodude on Oct 14, 2017 20:04:01 GMT
What a season this is shaping up to be, with a new frontrunner these past 4 months... and judging by a slight turn of the tide by the end of this poll, we might have a different winner next month as well. But let's not get ahead of ourselves. NYFF is just over and for now we can at least say that 4/5 films look strong on paper, including Spielberg's (no pun intended), which was our early top choice and has now fallen to #3, although it along with Del Toro's and McDonagh's are only 2 votes apart. Which is convenient since the race is so tight and uncertain at this stage. Even Call Me by Your Name, at #4, reaches its monthly vote high. On the other hand, Dunkirk suffers a severe fall, with no apparent reason other than to make room for other, "fresher" contenders. All in all our list has the same number of films as last month, only Get Out and Last Flag Flying are replaced by The Florida Project and Phantom Thread. But we might still be overlooking the winner... I guess we won't know until the real precursors start, since this is one of those rare years where the race seems to be all over the place (as opposed to the last two years). At least the interest is only growing that way, seeing as we're back to 70+ votes now (82 adding MAR and OB users):
1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri - 19 votes 2. The Shape of Water - 18 votes 3. The Post - 17 votes 4. Call Me by Your Name - 12 votes 5. Dunkirk - 7 votes 6. Darkest Hour - 4 votes 7. Blade Runner 2049 - 2 votes 8. Lady Bird - 1 vote 8. The Florida Project - 1 vote 8. Phantom Thread - 1 vote
Total: 82 votes
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Oct 14, 2017 21:28:27 GMT
Not sure why so many people are still predicting The Shape of Water to win. When it first premiered at Venice and got raves, I sort of understood why people started putting their chips on it (even though I myself was never fully convinced that it was the sort of thing that could win), but ever since it failed to place at TIFF, the buzz around it seems to have died down and I feel like some folks who were initially confident in it were immediately less bullish on it once they actually saw the thing (too weird, complaints about the screenplay, the romance being underdeveloped, etc.). It'll get plenty of nominations, but I honestly don't see it winning much and I actually think there's a chance it could be snubbed in screenplay, considering how packed that category is.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Oct 14, 2017 21:30:05 GMT
I'll stick by Call me By Your Name for now
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Post by quetee on Oct 14, 2017 23:42:15 GMT
By now, don't we at least have one vote for the winner? I can't recall our track record.
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morton
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Post by morton on Oct 15, 2017 1:13:07 GMT
Not sure why so many people are still predicting The Shape of Water to win. When it first premiered at Venice and got raves, I sort of understood why people started putting their chips on it (even though I myself was never fully convinced that it was the sort of thing that could win), but ever since it failed to place at TIFF, the buzz around it seems to have died down and I feel like some folks who were initially confident in it were immediately less bullish on it once they actually saw the thing (too weird, complaints about the screenplay, the romance being underdeveloped, etc.). It'll get plenty of nominations, but I honestly don't see it winning much and I actually think there's a chance it could be snubbed in screenplay, considering how packed that category is. It's both good and bad that it didn't place at TIFF. Obviously it makes it less of a target now, which is good. On the other hand, with all the hype surrounding it and based on accounts from people that attended TIFF, so maybe not entirely accurate, it seemed like this was a shoo in to win or at least place. That it didn't seems like it could be worrisome to me. I also agree that I expected more from reactions from those that did get to see it at TIFF or other festivals. While there's certainly a portion of people that loved it, I noticed that after Venice, perhaps expectations were too high because I've seen a good number of people say that they like it, but they don't get the big deal about it. You brought up good points especially about the romance being underdeveloped because I've seen that complaint come up the most by people who liked but didn't love it. It's the same way about the performances too especially Sally Hawkins's performance. They like her and think that she's worthy of a nomination, but they're not wowed by her to think that she deserves to win. That also seemed odd because I know that she's a great actress who certainly can deliver those wow performances like with Happy-Go-Lucky. That she didn't wow makes me think that it's probably unlikely to win any acting awards because she's the best chance, and she already doesn't fit the mold of recent Best Actress winners who are either "it" girls or overdue veterans which makes it seem even more unlikely to me that she's going to win if so many people like but don't love her performance. I also see a lot of complaints about the screenplay being the weakest aspect of the film, and I agree that in such a packed category I'm not even sure that it's going to be nominated. Even if it is nominated, I don't see it being able to win over Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri or The Post. It could still win Best Director, but as I keep writing ad nauseum that the way to winning Best Picture seems to be through winning one of the screenplay awards and also one acting award. TBOEM, The Post, and even Call Me By Your Name seem like they would be more likely if the Best Picture winner this year follows the same pattern.
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Post by Martin Stett on Oct 16, 2017 5:40:58 GMT
That much support for Billboards? doesn't seem like the type the academy embraces usually. It doesn't, at first glance. It's a profanity laden comedy. But consider the critical and audience raves, the subject matter involving racism and guns. Consider that the Academy has been going with more adventurous choices in recent years, as opposed to the Weinstein (how nice that we can officially call this the post-Weinstein) era of Oscar bait dominating -- Spotlight excepted. It seems to me that this is between Billboards and The Post. One is likely safer and more academy friendly. The other more likely to get passion votes.
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fotodude
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Post by fotodude on Oct 16, 2017 6:55:36 GMT
That much support for Billboards? doesn't seem like the type the academy embraces usually. It doesn't, at first glance. It's a profanity laden comedy. But consider the critical and audience raves, the subject matter involving racism and guns. Consider that the Academy has been going with more adventurous choices in recent years, as opposed to the Weinstein (how nice that we can officially call this the post-Weinstein) era of Oscar bait dominating -- Spotlight excepted. It seems to me that this is between Billboards and The Post. One is likely safer and more academy friendly. The other more likely to get passion votes. Not to mention the narrative about a woman seeking justice for an unresolved crime.
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fotodude
Junior Member
Posts: 398
Likes: 132
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Post by fotodude on Oct 16, 2017 6:56:07 GMT
By now, don't we at least have one vote for the winner? I can't recall our track record. Yeah I'm pretty sure the winner will be one of these.
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