fotodude
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Post by fotodude on Oct 9, 2017 18:49:13 GMT
New month, new BP poll (a day early since I'll be busy tomorrow). You know the drill: the poll is only to make my tallying easier. Since it doesn't let us add more options here, I'm simply going to list all the films that received at least one vote last time. If you want to vote for something else, you can: just post your choice below.
Otherwise only use the poll function to vote. Again, don't vote twice if you're also on OB. You can also post below to explain your vote, or if you want to guarantee future bragging rights if you call it early, but only the poll votes will be tallied (with the exception above). I'll keep it open for a few days, then post the results with some comments.
Last month The Shape of Water stormed for the first time to beat all the other contenders quite easily, placing above Dunkirk and The Post as prior frontrunners. But this is one of those rare years where, at this stage, there is still no clear consensus and many contenders could reasonable emerge as winners. With all the main festivals pretty much closed (NYFF will be over by the end of the week), it seems as if we're still waiting for a deciding factor to tip the balance... when almost every film has screened already. In October last year, things looked very different...
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Post by quetee on Oct 9, 2017 19:09:31 GMT
Sticking with The Post.
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Post by Martin Stett on Oct 9, 2017 20:47:28 GMT
The Current War
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 9, 2017 20:55:54 GMT
I'm going with Three Billboards for now. I think it will come down to either that or The Post.
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Oct 9, 2017 21:26:05 GMT
Not listed, but The Florida Project.
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Oct 10, 2017 1:03:27 GMT
Still gonna go with Dunkirk for now, though I could definitely imagine a scenario where it splits Director/Picture with Three Billboards (considering its TIFF win). On paper, McDonagh's film looks like an odd choice, but it seems to have a lot of passion from audiences, it's easily a frontrunner for the original screenplay win, and seems to also have the kind of social commentary that will give it the "importance" factor. Plus, I think McDormand and Rockwell are looking like serious threats for winning their respective categories.
The Post could also happen, but I'm still wondering if it will be too middlebrow or if it will have enough passion, especially with its late release.
At this point I think it will be between Dunkirk, Three Billboards, and The Post.
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Post by moonman157 on Oct 10, 2017 1:09:43 GMT
Not listed, but The Florida Project. No way in hell
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Oct 10, 2017 1:16:08 GMT
Like I've been saying for a while now, the lack of a clear frontrunner makes me think a certain December release will take the season by storm once it screens and the Hollywood royalty behind it goes around town campaigning and extolling the virtues of the free press in keeping corrupt governments in check. I'm not sure what else it'd win, but a Spotlight: Part Deux is totally possible, especially since most of the tech-heavy players (Dunkirk, Shape of Water, Blade Runner 2049) that are bound to dominate the below-the-line categories like Fury Road and The Revenant did don't strike me as BP threats.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Oct 10, 2017 13:09:57 GMT
I think Nolan will win Best Director but I'm predicting Call Me By Your Name to be the smaller culturally relevant film to swoop in and take BP ala Moonlight, Spotlight, 12 Years a Slave.
I think for Spielberg to win another it will have to be an event of the scale of Schindler's list or SPR and I don't see The Post being that. Pretty easy bet for a top five placement though.
I know it won Toronto but I think people are overreacting with Three Billboards. (Probably because McDonagh is a favorite around here) The last four films that won Toronto didn't win BP and this one looks less baity than those. Definitely helped its chances at a nod though.
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Post by Johnny_Hellzapoppin on Oct 10, 2017 13:34:29 GMT
The Post
I really wished I could even believe Get Out was going to be a nominee.
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Post by joephoenix on Oct 10, 2017 17:31:22 GMT
I voted for The Post. Still not feeling strong about any of the contenders to win.
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morton
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Post by morton on Oct 10, 2017 20:07:12 GMT
I went with Darkest Hour last month because I answered after Telluride, but before TIFF was over. I would have went with Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri had I voted later on in the month.
sterlingarcher86 makes a good point about the last four audience award winners not winning Best Picture, but other than The Post, I don't really see anything else on the horizon that looks to be a winner. Nothing in December aside from The Post looks that promising though, but I also agree with sterlingarcher86's point that it's going to be very difficult for Spielberg to top Schindler's List, Saving Private Ryan, etc. I thought for sure he'd win for Lincoln when Ben Affleck was snubbed, and that didn't happen. Of course, there is the potential narrative of The Post depending on how things are in Washington, but with things now shifting to the Weinstein scandal for the moment and with the Russia investigation not leading to Trump's impeachment or resignment yet, I'm not sure that The Post will have enough narrative power to win.
TBOEM just seems like something that can be a consensus choice. It's "important". Plus, outside of The Post and maybe Call Me By Your Name or Darkest Hour, it looks to be one of the few films that can win at least two other major awards, apart from Best Picture, including one acting award similar to 12 Years a Slave and Moonlight. I also think that Christopher Nolan is winning Best Director now, and it makes sense, imo, that something like TBOEM would lose Director but win Picture.
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fotodude
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Post by fotodude on Oct 11, 2017 15:38:36 GMT
Bump
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Post by Martin Stett on Oct 11, 2017 16:35:55 GMT
Just to be clear, Current War was a joke. I'm still voting for Three Billboards.
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Post by DeepArcher on Oct 11, 2017 16:41:33 GMT
Eh. Call Me By Your Name for now.
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Post by FrancescoAbides on Oct 12, 2017 1:17:24 GMT
Fuck it, Dunkirk
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Post by Mattsby on Oct 12, 2017 2:29:24 GMT
I think the frontrunners will be The Post and Call Me By Your Name >> yet Spotlight and Moonlight being our recent two winners might give voters pause, in which case a surprise third horse could be the winner......... Phantom Thread is the biggest mystery, after all it's PTA/DDL, can't ignore it
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fotodude
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Post by fotodude on Oct 13, 2017 13:46:25 GMT
Last chance.
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