What will be this year's Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk???

The Current War seems like a good bet

I'm not sure that there will be something exactly like Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk this year. I expect disappointments, but I'm not sure there will be anything on that level that I was predicting big things for all around.

We already know that Battle of the Sexes, Darkest Hour, and Three Billboards Outside of Ebbing, Missouri are good to great, so we can already rule them out,

Maybe Downsizing would be the closest fit just because I had high expectations for that possibly winning Best Picture early on similar to how I thought BLLHW could possibly be favorite for BP before it bombed, but even though Downsizing didn't live up to my lofty expectations, I wouldn't say it bombed at all, just that reactions were a lot more mixed than I had thought. It could still get in for Hong Chau, and even BP isn't totally out of the question.

I never had any big hopes for The Current War, The Greatest Showman, and Molly's Game beyond mostly just acting nominations for them, and I wouldn't be terribly surprised if they end up turning into the films that had buzz that went nowhere though because of some signs being there. With The Current War, I actually thought that Mary Magadalene would end up being TWC's number 1 instead. Then, with The Greatest Showman, I thought it was unlikely that a musical would come so close to the top prize two years in a row, and I was scared off by the fact that the director never directed anything else before. Finally, with Molly's Game, I wasn't sold on Aaron Sorkin directing his own material because I was afraid he wouldn't be able to be objective on what to cut out from his script if he was directing too.

With mother!, I wasn't sure what to expect, but aside from the actors, I thought it might be too divisive from early reports for AMPAS. Likewise with Phantom Thread, I'm not sure what to expect either, and after overpredicting The Master and Inherent Vice, I've been cautious and have only been predicting it for DD-L and costumes, and then Vicky Krieps after reading some good early word about her. Finally with Blade Runner 2049, I'm still not sure what to think about that either. I have it down in technical categories, but I still think Dunkirk is WB's best bet.

I guess it's possible that Last Flag Flying ends up being like BLLHW, but I think that even if it doesn't live up to the hype, it won't be as big of a bomb as BLLHW was. I could be totally wrong, but I guess I don't see Linklater messing things up that badly. I think with BLLHW, if Lee hadn't filmed it at 120 frames per second, I don't think it would have bombed like it did, but I think critics and pundits were just too focused on that and perhaps Lee was as well. If it had just been done conventionally, it probably still wouldn't have went anywhere near the Oscars, but I don't think it would have turned out like it did. So I think Linklater will be okay because I don't think he'll mess up Last Flag Flying that much. Maybe it won't be an Oscar player like many think, but I don't think it will get the pans that BLLHW ended up getting.

I guess it's also possible that The Post could bomb, but it just seems unlikely to me with the power of Spielberg, Hanks, and Streep. Plus, even if it underwhelms, I think the subject matter alone will make some critics more apt to wanting it to succeed, so I don't think it could fail at the same level BLLHW did.

Whichever of these merc is stanning for.

If you're making the comparison quality-wise, I'd say Current War is the one (I fall asleep everytime I remember that movie is being made).

Maybe I jumped a gun too fast. I don't know for sure yet, but it doesn't seem like Denzel Washington is even going to get nominated for Roman J. Israel, Esq. with reactions so far. I never would have expected that; although, in the past two weeks, I had lowered the film and director in my rankings because there were so many new films that were actually living up to the hype. I thought Washington was in though especially since Best Actor didn't seem especially strong outside of what I thought would be the top 6 (Chalamet, Cranston, Day-Lewis, Hanks, Oldman, and Washington). I guess Washington could be out, and Gyllenhaal in?

I voted for The Great Showman due to the fact that is the only choice really available. But to qualify for the Billy Lynn Halftime Walk award, it has to be a movie that made out polls early every month and to me the best movie to fit that bill, at least right now is Wonderstuck. 

I didn't have much faith in Wonderstuck early on beyond maybe acting and writing because I didn't really see voters suddenly warming up to Haynes if he missed with two of the best received films of their year with Carol and Far From Heaven, but yes this was definitely a disappointment.

I don't know if it was a disappointment quite in the same league as Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk because I still saw some people holding on to it, at least in some major categories after Cannes, but going from being a film that many prognosticators, although not many here to our credit I guess, were predicting to win Best Picture to being something that might get a few nominations was definitely surprising, imo, especially considering Haynes's track record.