fotodude
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Post by fotodude on Aug 9, 2017 21:39:55 GMT
New month, new BP poll. You know the drill: the poll is only to make my tallying easier. Since it doesn't let us add more options here, I'm simply going to list all the films that received at least one vote last time. If you want to vote for something else, you can: just post your choice below.
Otherwise only use the poll function to vote. Again, don't vote twice if you're also on OB2. You can also post below to explain your vote, or if you want to guarantee future bragging rights if you call it early, but only the poll votes will be tallied (with the exception above). I'll keep it open for a few days, then post the results with some comments.
We're entering more critical territory, as you can see by the results in August last year, with 6 eventual BP nominees mentioned, as opposed to 4 the month before and 1 in previous months. It's only natural when the fall festivals have announced most of their lineups and rumors of release dates and distributors, as well as early campaign news, seem more established. I wonder if all of this will affect our clear frontrunner from past months though, since it's been excluded of all this development...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 9, 2017 23:08:14 GMT
Kudos.
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morton
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Post by morton on Aug 10, 2017 5:16:41 GMT
The teaser for The Death of Stalin is supposed to come out this Friday, so maybe I should wait until then to vote. On the other hand, this will probably be the last month that I vote for it since the fall festivals begin next month, and it's only going to TIFF right now. Not that it won't be a great film, but I don't think IFC is going to really go all in for it like some other distributors do with their films.
I have no idea what to go for though. I mean obviously there's The Papers, but I think it might be more like a Bridge of Spies/Lincoln type of thing which is still very respectable. I'm just not sure it can go all the way especially in comparison to Spielberg's previous films and also Best Director wins.
Dunkirk seems like it will win Best Director, but I don't know if it can be the consensus choice to win Best Picture. There's a lot of buzz about The Shape of Water, but I still think it's going to be too weird to win Best Picture. Get Out is probably too genre to win, and I'm afraid that it could be snubbed like other pre-fall films that people were predicting all the way up until the Oscars. The Florida Project is probably way too small, and I have doubts now about it being nominated for Best Picture. Phantom Thread is probably too weird from what I've read. Last Flag Flying maybe, but I wonder if being a "sequel" will hurt it any. Detroit is dead in the water and might not even get any nominations at all now. I can't see Darkest Hour being better than Dunkirk, and I think it will be more like The Theory of Everything type of film and only be competitive in Best Actor yet rack up nominations across the board.
Screw it, I'll just vote for The Death of Stalin again this month even before the teaser. If the critics really rally behind it, I think it can still go far. Iannucci just has a way of being prophetic about politics, and this just seems like it will turn out the same way.
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Post by Martin Stett on Aug 10, 2017 5:56:00 GMT
I'm pretty much on the same boat as Morton. Except that I'm choosing Three Billboards instead. Same logic.
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fotodude
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Post by fotodude on Aug 10, 2017 6:44:24 GMT
The teaser for The Death of Stalin is supposed to come out this Friday, so maybe I should wait until then to vote. On the other hand, this will probably be the last month that I vote for it since the fall festivals begin next month, and it's only going to TIFF right now. Not that it won't be a great film, but I don't think IFC is going to really go all in for it like some other distributors do with their films. I have no idea what to go for though. I mean obviously there's The Papers, but I think it might be more like a Bridge of Spies/ Lincoln type of thing which is still very respectable. I'm just not sure it can go all the way especially in comparison to Spielberg's previous films and also Best Director wins. Dunkirk seems like it will win Best Director, but I don't know if it can be the consensus choice to win Best Picture. There's a lot of buzz about The Shape of Water, but I still think it's going to be too weird to win Best Picture. Get Out is probably too genre to win, and I'm afraid that it could be snubbed like other pre-fall films that people were predicting all the way up until the Oscars. The Florida Project is probably way too small, and I have doubts now about it being nominated for Best Picture. Phantom Thread is probably too weird from what I've read. Last Flag Flying maybe, but I wonder if being a "sequel" will hurt it any. Detroit is dead in the water and might not even get any nominations at all now. I can't see Darkest Hour being better than Dunkirk, and I think it will be more like The Theory of Everything type of film and only be competitive in Best Actor yet rack up nominations across the board. Screw it, I'll just vote for The Death of Stalin again this month even before the teaser. If the critics really rally behind it, I think it can still go far. Iannucci just has a way of being prophetic about politics, and this just seems like it will turn out the same way. Yeah I don't have the same faith in The Death of Stalin as you, but I agree with most of this... that's why I'm voting for Downsizing lol.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Aug 10, 2017 7:21:47 GMT
it's totally wishful thinking, but I voted for Call Me By Your Name
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Aug 10, 2017 7:27:05 GMT
Detroit is dead in the water and might not even get any nominations at all now. wait...why? It received very positive reviews and Bigelow has an exceptional recent track record with the Academy. I thought it was a pretty sure lock for some significant nominations if not wins (Mark Boal at least seems ripe for a third screenplay nod). Did I miss something?
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morton
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Post by morton on Aug 10, 2017 14:54:35 GMT
Detroit is dead in the water and might not even get any nominations at all now. wait...why? It received very positive reviews and Bigelow has an exceptional recent track record with the Academy. I thought it was a pretty sure lock for some significant nominations if not wins (Mark Boal at least seems ripe for a third screenplay nod). Did I miss something? It started out good, but it didn't do well when it opened wide at the box office. Plus, it only has a Metacritic score of 78 and average rating of 7.6 at Rotten Tomatoes. The Hurt Locker had a MC score of 94 and a RT average of 8.5 and Zero Dark Thirty had a MC score of 95 and RT average of 8.6 in comparison. Plus, I think it was a mistake to open over the summer instead of taking it to festivals especially ones later in the year. I don't know if it would have done that much better with awards, but this summer Dunkirk and The Big Sick will likely get most of the attention for summer releases that also have a good chance of getting major awards attention especially the former. There was also Get Out pre-summer, so I feel Detroit is likely to be forgotten by the time awards season comes around because it did well with critics but not as Kathryn Bigelow's two previous films, and its box office was pretty bad. The Hurt Locker didn't do that well at the box office either, but it was able to make up for it for a number of reasons. I remember that it hung around a very long time playing at festivals before it was officially released, so Summit was able to build up its popularity that way. Jeremy Renner was pretty much unknown at the time, but it was a star making turn for him. It managed to win the trifecta of Best Picture prizes at the top tier critics awards (LAFCA, NSFC, NYFCC). Plus, Bigelow's narrative was just too much to ignore, and I also think that it hurt Avatar that Cameron had won so much before with Titanic.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Aug 11, 2017 14:46:05 GMT
wait...why? It received very positive reviews and Bigelow has an exceptional recent track record with the Academy. I thought it was a pretty sure lock for some significant nominations if not wins (Mark Boal at least seems ripe for a third screenplay nod). Did I miss something? It started out good, but it didn't do well when it opened wide at the box office. Plus, it only has a Metacritic score of 78 and average rating of 7.6 at Rotten Tomatoes. The Hurt Locker had a MC score of 94 and a RT average of 8.5 and Zero Dark Thirty had a MC score of 95 and RT average of 8.6 in comparison. Plus, I think it was a mistake to open over the summer instead of taking it to festivals especially ones later in the year. I don't know if it would have done that much better with awards, but this summer Dunkirk and The Big Sick will likely get most of the attention for summer releases that also have a good chance of getting major awards attention especially the former. There was also Get Out pre-summer, so I feel Detroit is likely to be forgotten by the time awards season comes around because it did well with critics but not as Kathryn Bigelow's two previous films, and its box office was pretty bad. The Hurt Locker didn't do that well at the box office either, but it was able to make up for it for a number of reasons. I remember that it hung around a very long time playing at festivals before it was officially released, so Summit was able to build up its popularity that way. Jeremy Renner was pretty much unknown at the time, but it was a star making turn for him. It managed to win the trifecta of Best Picture prizes at the top tier critics awards (LAFCA, NSFC, NYFCC). Plus, Bigelow's narrative was just too much to ignore, and I also think that it hurt Avatar that Cameron had won so much before with Titanic. Oscar voters don't consult metacritic scores before they vote. If Detroit connects with them it will be nominated. It may or may not but I think you are overreacting if you think falling review sight numbers matter at all.
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Post by jimmalone on Aug 11, 2017 17:58:07 GMT
Oscar voters don't consult metacritic scores before they vote. If Detroit connects with them it will be nominated. It may or may not but I think you are overreacting if you think falling review sight numbers matter at all. They don't consult metacritic scores. But a high rating usually indicates that other people in the film industry, namely the critics, like it. And their taste often overlaps with the voters. In the last 10 years every Best Picture Winner has at least an Metascore of 86. Doubt that this is an accident.
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Post by jimmalone on Aug 11, 2017 18:26:11 GMT
Really have a hard time figuring this race again. As always at this point in time. We just have not enough indications, but you usually have several contenders, though in recent history they mostly have been overtaken by a more surprising movie that wasn't that high on everybody predictions list in August. A problem that strikes me (again) this year is that there are some arguments against most movies that we view as the main contenders right now.
To me Last Flag Flying and Downsizing out of these choices are the two films that have the least thingst going against them.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Aug 11, 2017 22:04:18 GMT
Oscar voters don't consult metacritic scores before they vote. If Detroit connects with them it will be nominated. It may or may not but I think you are overreacting if you think falling review sight numbers matter at all. They don't consult metacritic scores. But a high rating usually indicates that other people in the film industry, namely the critics, like it. And their taste often overlaps with the voters. In the last 10 years every Best Picture Winner has at least an Metascore of 86. Doubt that this is an accident. Critics aren't in the industry. I have no doubt that it's reception eliminates it from contention to win but that's not what we are talking about here. Much worse reviewed films have gotten noms. Even recently.
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fotodude
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Post by fotodude on Aug 11, 2017 22:23:54 GMT
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Post by pendragon on Aug 11, 2017 22:40:22 GMT
That's true, but when you combine the reviews with the low box office and a reputation for being difficult to watch, there's not going to be much incentive for many Academy members to even see the film.
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Post by jimmalone on Aug 12, 2017 8:45:21 GMT
They don't consult metacritic scores. But a high rating usually indicates that other people in the film industry, namely the critics, like it. And their taste often overlaps with the voters. In the last 10 years every Best Picture Winner has at least an Metascore of 86. Doubt that this is an accident. Critics aren't in the industry. I have no doubt that it's reception eliminates it from contention to win but that's not what we are talking about here. Much worse reviewed films have gotten noms. Even recently. Well, the thread is titled: Which film will win Best Picture?
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Aug 14, 2017 9:23:25 GMT
Critics aren't in the industry. I have no doubt that it's reception eliminates it from contention to win but that's not what we are talking about here. Much worse reviewed films have gotten noms. Even recently. Well, the thread is titled: Which film will win Best Picture? 1. Nobody has voted for it to win best picture 2. This discussion started when someone said it wouldn't be nominated for anything
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fotodude
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Post by fotodude on Aug 14, 2017 12:45:32 GMT
Closed.
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