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Post by SergeantTibbs on Jun 20, 2017 20:16:22 GMT
Please make the name and film choice clear. Honourable mentions okay as long as you single out one to be included for the poll.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2017 20:18:36 GMT
ACTOR: Oldman, Darkest Hour alt: Washington, Inner City
ACTRESS: Streep, The Papers alt: Winslet, Wonder Wheel
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Dafoe, Florida Project alt: Stuhlbarg, Call Me By Your Name
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Janney, I Tonya alt: Pfeiffer, mother!
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Jun 20, 2017 21:01:20 GMT
I'm back to square one after the Greatest Showman and Darkest Hour screening reactions. Gary Oldman, Darkest HourMeryl Streep, The PapersMichael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name...Claire Foy, Breathe? Oldman and Stuhlbarg are the only ones I'm somewhat confident about. Streep is still a placeholder, and Supporting Actress is a total crapshoot. Greatest Showman is apparently in trouble, so I'm not going with Williams again. I hear Scott Thomas doesn't have enough to do in Darkest Hour to pull off a win. Between mother! apprently being more on the horror side and Pfeiffer herself describing the script as esoteric and hard to understand, I'm expecting it to be far too divisive to really make waves. Janney is someone I can definitely see the Academy throwing a bone to at some point, but I, Tonya is doing reshoots following the test screening (so would it even be finished in time for the fall festivals?) and Miramax doesn't inspire much confidence. Any chance Claire Foy pulls a Vikander and goes Supporting?
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Post by Deleted on Jun 21, 2017 0:35:57 GMT
Oldman, Darkest Hour Winslet, Wonder Wheel Dafoe, The Florida Project Pfeiffer, mother!
Only one I feel less confident about than others is Pfeiffer, and that's more because the film is REALLY quiet than anything.
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morton
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Post by morton on Jun 21, 2017 3:08:31 GMT
Best Actor: Denzel Washington, Inner City - I'll still go against the grain despite Oldman having so much in his favor.
Best Actress: Meryl Streep, The Papers - I'm not sure whether or not voters would give Washington his third and Streep her fourth on the same night, but I think that Streep has a lot going for her on paper. I didn't think she could win her third without being in a Best Picture nominee, but she ended up doing so. To win her fourth though, she's going to need that plus more, and while I don't know if she'll have the "and more", The Papers looks good for a Best Picture nomination in an expanded lineup, it might even be the Best Picture favorite.
Plus, I think it works in her favor that the possible other nominees could potentially all have won before (Dench, Lawrence, McDormand, Winslet) and the potential newcomers that look the strongest right now (Foy, Vega) are unlikely to win especially against Streep. Of course, I expect TIFF to throw a curveball in this category like it has for the past few years, but currently I would have to go with Streep winning.
Best Supporting Actor: Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project - I'm wondering if this is going to be more like Room in terms of Best Picture strength than another Moonlight for A24, but nonetheless given Dafoe's veteran status and potential critic wins plus A24's strength at campaigning for the Oscars right now, I would have to go with him over Michael Stuhlbarg.
Best Supporting Actress: Andrea Riseborough, The Death of Stalin - Still going with my totally wildcard pick here because I don't think Melissa Leo is well liked enough to win another Oscar and I have doubts about I, Tonya being an Oscar vehicle for Allison Janney. I think that The Death of Stalin might surprise in other big categories besides Best Adapted Screenplay, and Riseborough has a higher profile than her costar Olga Kurylenko and will have The Battle of the Sexes along with other potential films out this year that could help her overall. I have no idea if she or Kurylenko have anything substantial to work with or not, but hopefully one of them will have.
Like Zeb31 though, I am very tempted to predict Claire Foy in this category even though someone very reliable at AwardsWatch is insisting that she'll go leading. I could see why she would want a leading nomination over a supporting one especially since the leading category doesn't seem especially strong this year. However, I think that if she has a borderline supporting role or even a full fledged leading role, she probably wins this easily. To me it would be like a combination of Vikander's and Davis's wins because Foy could potentially be committing the same category fraud as Vikander plus be a rising star like Vikander but also switch categories later on like Davis who agreed that she'd have a much better chance to win in Supporting than fighting to stay leading. (I still think Davis would have won even against Stone if she had stayed leading though because she would have been considered "due", and La La Land turned out to be a really weak frontrunner.)
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Post by Deleted on Jun 21, 2017 13:18:05 GMT
Gary Oldman, 'The Darkest Hour' Annette Bening, 'Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool' Michael Shannon, 'The Current War' Naomi Watts, 'The Glass Castle'
I guess.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jun 21, 2017 16:34:24 GMT
Oldman Streep Stuhlbarg Pfeiffer
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Post by SergeantTibbs on Jun 23, 2017 23:36:07 GMT
Still open for a bit.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jun 24, 2017 0:00:17 GMT
Gary Oldman - Darkest Hour Kate Winslet - Wonder Wheel Michael Stuhlbarg – Call Me By Your Name Mary J. Blige - Mudbound
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Post by Sharbs on Jun 24, 2017 0:36:13 GMT
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread Meryl Streep, The Papers Sterling K. Brown, Marshall Michelle Pfeiffer, mother!.....I guess
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Post by thomasjerome on Jun 24, 2017 0:45:36 GMT
Oldman Dench Dafoe Pfeiffer
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Zeb31
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Post by Zeb31 on Jun 28, 2017 19:48:28 GMT
Bumping this to add: I'd forgotten that Amazon slated Wonder Wheel for December. I'm swapping Streep for Winslet for the time being.
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour Kate Winslet, Wonder Wheel Michael Stuhlbarg, Call Me by Your Name Claire Foy, Breathe
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