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Post by TylerDeneuve on Jul 25, 2024 3:19:35 GMT
Joan Chen, DìdiDanielle Deadwyler, The Piano LessonJulianne Moore, The Room Next DoorSaoirse Ronan, BlitzIsabella Rossellini, ConclaveBecause The Outrun found distribution, I fully expect Ronan to be pushed Supporting for Blitz... Can she become a double nominee this year? Anyway, who are you currently predicting?  |
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Post by mhynson27 on Jul 25, 2024 5:56:51 GMT
Gold Derby has Moore in Lead, and Swinton in Supporting. They're usually pretty reliable.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jul 25, 2024 5:58:56 GMT
Deadwyler
Ellis-Taylor
Ronan
Saldana
Swinton
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Post by DanQuixote on Jul 25, 2024 8:26:20 GMT
Danielle Deadwyler - The Piano Lesson
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor - Nickel Boys
Saoirse Ronan - Blitz
Zoe Saldaña - Emilia Pérez
Tilda Swinton - The Room Next Door (or Moore)
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Joan Chen - Didi
Toni Collette - Juror #2
Lesley Manville - Queer
Fernanda Montenegro - I’m Still Here
Isabella Rossellini - Conclave
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Post by TylerDeneuve on Jul 25, 2024 17:11:54 GMT
Gold Derby has Moore in Lead, and Swinton in Supporting. They're usually pretty reliable. I guess we'll have to wait and see, but from the promotional material that's been released so far, it seems that Saldaña and Swinton are the Leads of their respective films? |
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Post by stephen on Jul 25, 2024 17:17:47 GMT
I do think people might be underestimating Emily Watson here. She won Berlin, it is an extremely good role based on the reviews and the source novella, Murphy has afterglow heat that will get eyes on it at least, and she strikes me as the sort of person who could do very well with the international contingent, and she is a veteran.
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Post by TylerDeneuve on Jul 25, 2024 17:44:58 GMT
I do think people might be underestimating Emily Watson here. She won Berlin, it is an extremely good role based on the reviews and the source novella, Murphy has afterglow heat that will get eyes on it at least, and she strikes me as the sort of person who could do very well with the international contingent, and she is a veteran. is currently predicting her: 1. Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice2. Moses Ingram, The End3. Emily Watson, Small Things Like These4. Joan Chen, Dìdi5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys |
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jul 25, 2024 17:49:40 GMT
I do think people might be underestimating Emily Watson here. She won Berlin, it is an extremely good role based on the reviews and the source novella, Murphy has afterglow heat that will get eyes on it at least, and she strikes me as the sort of person who could do very well with the international contingent, and she is a veteran. is currently predicting her: 1. Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice2. Moses Ingram, The End3. Emily Watson, Small Things Like These4. Joan Chen, Dìdi5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel BoysThose are from April. I doubt anybody is predicting Bakalova now |
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jul 25, 2024 18:14:19 GMT
Gaga is being campaigned for Supporting is the current speculation
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Jul 25, 2024 19:12:16 GMT
Deadwyler, Ellis-Taylor, and Ronan for Blitz if she goes supporting. Other than that, no clue.
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Post by stephen on Jul 25, 2024 19:52:01 GMT
Gaga is being campaigned for Supporting is the current speculation It feels like she probably could go either way but the way they're advertising her and the way that Phoenix is not going to put any effort in for himself, they'll want to back Gaga in Lead. Because I think she's a top threat regardless of which category she's in, but I think she is a potentially stronger candidate in Best Actress, where her biggest competitor is (right now) a prior winner in a film without a domestic distributor. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Jul 26, 2024 0:26:14 GMT
Gaga is being campaigned for Supporting is the current speculation It feels like she probably could go either way but the way they're advertising her and the way that Phoenix is not going to put any effort in for himself, they'll want to back Gaga in Lead. Because I think she's a top threat regardless of which category she's in, but I think she is a potentially stronger candidate in Best Actress, where her biggest competitor is (right now) a prior winner in a film without a domestic distributor. Even without Jolie, I'd still say Adams, Madison and Gascón at the very least, would be ahead of Gaga. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Jul 26, 2024 0:28:32 GMT
Gold Derby has Moore in Lead, and Swinton in Supporting. They're usually pretty reliable. I guess we'll have to wait and see, but from the promotional material that's been released so far, it seems that Saldaña and Swinton are the Leads of their respective films? Eh, I haven't really seen anything in the promo for either of those films, to strongly suggest that. I trust Gold Derby and Erik Anderson on these ones. |
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Post by stephen on Jul 26, 2024 0:36:11 GMT
It feels like she probably could go either way but the way they're advertising her and the way that Phoenix is not going to put any effort in for himself, they'll want to back Gaga in Lead. Because I think she's a top threat regardless of which category she's in, but I think she is a potentially stronger candidate in Best Actress, where her biggest competitor is (right now) a prior winner in a film without a domestic distributor. Even without Jolie, I'd still say Adams, Madison and Gascón at the very least, would be ahead of Gaga. If I'm gauging pros and cons of each candidate, I actually would say Gaga's ahead of all three at this point. Madison strikes me as someone who feels like the "welcome to the club" nomination is her reward even if her film is a Picture frontrunner, Gascón has a historic glass ceiling to break and there's no guarantee it'll happen, and Adams's film could go either way (because those fucking Vanity Fair pictures did not make it look in any way appealing; you can say those are taken out of context but they chose those shots!). Gaga is a prior nominee in this category who is playing an extremely flashy role in a huge studio follow-up to a movie that won its leading man an Oscar a few years ago, and Gaga is going big for it in a way that I think the Academy will be very charmed by. The only thing is she really needs to ease up on the desperation throttle because I do think she did way too goddamn much on the circuit last time and I think it's what caused her to miss in the end. And she is already campaigning HARD.I actually would say she has the most pros in her column sight unseen. |
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Post by sirjeremy on Sept 3, 2024 17:57:02 GMT
I feel like Deadwyler is leading so far.
Chen
Deadwyler
Gaga
Rossellini
Swinton
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Post by stephen on Sept 3, 2024 18:13:31 GMT
I feel like Deadwyler is leading so far. Chen Deadwyler Gaga Rossellini Swinton Rossellini's probably not happening. None of the reviews really single her out and they say she just doesn't have the screentime. Fiennes is the real star of the show. And I don't feel Didi is going to get that sudden resurgence; that movie came and went with nary a blip. Felicity Jones is very likely if The Brutalist nets a major domestic distributor, there's still a question of Blitz (if not Ronan, maybe a Kathy Burke or an Erin Kellyman?), Manville is getting some strong buzz from the Queer notices right now, and I still think Gaga's going lead. |
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Post by countjohn on Sept 3, 2024 18:36:59 GMT
Would love a double nod for Saoirse but supporting just sounds like a huge reach based on what we have heard about Blitz. She probably gets lead for that and The Outrun might just be too indie for the Academy.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 4, 2024 0:03:32 GMT
Would love a double nod for Saoirse but supporting just sounds like a huge reach based on what we have heard about Blitz. She probably gets lead for that and The Outrun might just be too indie for the Academy. Uhmmm, what?!? Everything we've heard about Blitz, is that it's centred on the boy. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 4, 2024 0:04:17 GMT
I feel like Deadwyler is leading so far. Chen Deadwyler Gaga Rossellini Swinton No Saldana is... interesting. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 5, 2024 1:46:02 GMT
Honestly, I think it's time to accept that Selena may very well make it in here. Contenders are dropping like flies.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Sept 5, 2024 13:45:09 GMT
Deadwyler
Ellis-Taylor
Ronan
Saldana
Jones
I’ve seen enough stand out notices for Ellis-Taylor and I think the film will do well so I’m keeping her in. If Ronan is lead replace with Swinton.
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Post by mhynson27 on Sept 5, 2024 14:26:11 GMT
Deadwyler Ellis-Taylor Ronan Saldana Jones I’ve seen enough stand out notices for Ellis-Taylor and I think the film will do well so I’m keeping her in. If Ronan is lead replace with Swinton. I think I'm with that 5 atm too. Gomez at #6. |
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Post by stabcaesar on Sept 5, 2024 15:16:29 GMT
I do think people might be underestimating Emily Watson here. She won Berlin, it is an extremely good role based on the reviews and the source novella, Murphy has afterglow heat that will get eyes on it at least, and she strikes me as the sort of person who could do very well with the international contingent, and she is a veteran. I would LOVE it if this happens. |
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Post by stephen on Sept 5, 2024 17:05:04 GMT
I do think people might be underestimating Emily Watson here. She won Berlin, it is an extremely good role based on the reviews and the source novella, Murphy has afterglow heat that will get eyes on it at least, and she strikes me as the sort of person who could do very well with the international contingent, and she is a veteran. I would LOVE it if this happens. I do think she's a stealth threat (especially as presumed contenders keep dropping off) but the film needs a hard resurgence now. |
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tylosaur
Junior Member
Posts: 276 
Likes: 143
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Post by tylosaur on Sept 5, 2024 22:08:13 GMT
Deadwyler
Saldana
Rossellini
Ronan
Sennott
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