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Post by Joaquim on Sept 22, 2024 16:40:35 GMT
Once again, they are all compromised how r these two things the same? One is a shout out at a virtual event and another one has 10 plus pics of the two together? And while we are at it, Trump shared a photoshopped photo of Diddy and Kamala. I wonder why he failed to remind people that he actually hung out with him at parties. If you think this is the only time Kamala has hung out with The Diddler then I can’t help you
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Post by quetee on Sept 22, 2024 16:58:08 GMT
how r these two things the same? One is a shout out at a virtual event and another one has 10 plus pics of the two together? And while we are at it, Trump shared a photoshopped photo of Diddy and Kamala. I wonder why he failed to remind people that he actually hung out with him at parties. If you think this is the only time Kamala has hung out with The Diddler then I can’t help you I don't know what she did...neither do u. unless you have photos then you are spreading rumors like that psychopath. They are not even in same industry.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 22, 2024 17:10:40 GMT
how r these two things the same? One is a shout out at a virtual event and another one has 10 plus pics of the two together? And while we are at it, Trump shared a photoshopped photo of Diddy and Kamala. I wonder why he failed to remind people that he actually hung out with him at parties. If you think this is the only time Kamala has hung out with The Diddler then I can’t help you He's one of her favorte living rappers .........though she can't name any ........but if she could......... .......
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Post by quetee on Sept 22, 2024 17:16:56 GMT
If you think this is the only time Kamala has hung out with The Diddler then I can’t help you He's one of her favorte living rappers .........though she can't name any ........but if she could......... ....... 🤣.......u guys are silly rabbits.
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Post by RiverleavesElmius on Sept 22, 2024 17:27:43 GMT
This would be the equivalent of a bomb in the campaign basically ...........I said this before Trump is more or less going for that NC / Ga / Pa path...... Arizona and Virginai replace the need for ANY blue wall state at all.......... which contradicts everything everybody has ever said about this election ....... Yeah definitely. She can sweep the rust belt and still lose even tho it's hard for EITHER to SWEEP the Rust Belt. They vote together most of the time but it can't be guaranteed. I think Trump is trying to make the Rust Belt essentially meaningless (but it's pretty much all swing-y/either way there too). He went to Long Island to hold a giant rally to try to get Senate seats in case it goes to a 269-269 tie (I admit unlikely). I don't think Arizona's a battleground state anymore. It's Trump's. You delusional & disingenuous election denier. That Virginia poll is ridiculously and obviously a goddamn OUTLIER. Every previous recent VA poll has her up by more than 5, so NOBODY with any credibility is taking that B.S. outlier even remotely serious. And LMAO at you thinking Trump has Arizona when most polls there have them either tied or up by 1 or 2 points. The 3 states consistently polling the closest are GA/AZ/NC (in that order). Plus Gallego is CRUSHING your looney tune gf Kari Lake in the senate race. Again, you're DELUSIONAL. Michigan and Wisconsin (both battlegrounds) are less close and more likely to go to Harris than AZ for Trump. But hey, election-deniers gonna poll-deny too, I guess. Ugh! #shameful #laughable
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 22, 2024 17:41:02 GMT
You know I'd ilke to actually ask somethng serious and invite the serious minded peeps to comment on it:
* If Harris were to lose - and lose Pa - would that be the biggest "unforced error" in modern US politics not picking Shapiro?
* If Biden had HIS pick of VP's he wanted to pick Whitmer - it was Obama who liked Kamala - I think we can agree Kamala "could" lose and Whitmer probably not at all......do you think Whitmer is a "better candidate"?
Now if Harris wins - this doesn't matter ^ - but if she doesn't will this be analyzeed to death? Shapiro would be I'm sure - but nobody talks about Biden wanting Whitmer in 2020.........
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Post by RiverleavesElmius on Sept 22, 2024 17:47:11 GMT
Now it's a race, or it's a Harris sinking ship. ⚓🚢 This would be the equivalent of a bomb in the campaign basically ...........I said this before Trump is more or less going for that NC / Ga / Pa path...... Arizona and Virginiai replace the need for ANY blue wall state at all.......... which contradicts everything everybody has ever said about this election ....... I know you have a predilection for enjoying and listening to professional disingenuous pathological lying pieces of toxic RepubliC**T shit like Megyn and Tucker, but even by your center-right standards, you should know better than to quote a friggin ELECTION DENIER. urbanpatrician and cherry are shameful lying disgraceful deniers, and have less credibility than literally ANYONE on this site (yes, even your old pal CruddyPuppy). VA is NOT close, never has been this cycle, and NEVER WILL BE. Beside that ridiculously laughable outlier, every other VA poll has her up by 5+ points. A few even by double digits. She will win it...comfortably. There are only 7 swing states. Harris has the edge on 2 of them (MI/WI), Trump has it in 1 (GA), and the other 4 (PA/NC/AZ/NV) are true toss-ups where all the polls are either tied or either of them by 1 or 2 points. Though if the trend in recent polls continues, she'll have a slight edge in PA too.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 22, 2024 17:48:32 GMT
VA won't be close. It's as blue as Ohio is red.
It'll be interesting to see how the ticket-splitting shakes out. There's 0% chance Robinson wins in NC at this point, and Lake is very likely to lose AZ, but how much do them being on the ballot "hurt" Trump, or rather another way to look at it... how much does Trump being on the ballot "help" them? (i.e. they'd otherwise probably lose by bigger margins). Either way, what I expect is a continuation of what we saw in 2022... MAGA candidates not Trump will continue to struggle electorally in purple/lean red states which is a bad sign for modern GOP going forward. Trumpism doesn't really have legs without Trump. And endorsements aren't enough, he has to be on the ballot to drive low-propensity voters to the polls.
having dems in the lead on these down-ballot races has to help top of ticket at least marginally. I mean Trump has a shot in the rust belt sure (WI is making me nervous), but Dems are going to sweep most of these state races. Slotkin, Casey, Baldwin, Gallego, Rosen, Stein... I'd rather be the Harris/Walz team campaigning in these battleground states where down-ballot dems are ahead statewide.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 22, 2024 17:52:40 GMT
also, those thinking the polls are underestimating Trump again... the polls are fairly consistently showing similar levels of support to his 2020 and 2016 voteshares (46-47%) so a polling error the size of 2016 or 2020 would mean a Trump blowout and populate vote win. Whether that's likelier than the pollsters making up for past mistakes and adequately capturing his ceiling of support (or possibly over-correcting for GOP the way they did in 2022) is for my fellow doom-scrolling nerds to figure out for themselves.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 22, 2024 17:59:47 GMT
This would be the equivalent of a bomb in the campaign basically ...........I said this before Trump is more or less going for that NC / Ga / Pa path...... Arizona and Virginiai replace the need for ANY blue wall state at all.......... which contradicts everything everybody has ever said about this election ....... I know you have a predilection for enjoying and listening to professional disingenuous pathological lying pieces of toxic RepubliC**T shit like Megyn and Tucker, but even by your center-right standards, you should know better than to quote a friggin ELECTION DENIER. urbanpatrician and cherry are shameful lying disgraceful deniers, and have less credibility than literally ANYONE on this site (yes, even your old pal CruddyPuppy). VA is NOT close, never has been this cycle, and NEVER WILL BE. Beside that ridiculously laughable outlier, every other VA poll has her up by 5+ points. A few even by double digits. She will win it...comfortably. There are only 7 swing states. Harris has the edge on 2 of them (MI/WI), Trump has it in 1 (GA), and the other 4 (PA/NC/AZ/NV) are true toss-ups where all the polls are either tied or either of them by 1 or 2 points. Though if the trend in recent polls continues, she'll have a slight edge in PA too. Maybe you're right - tbh - that's a measured take ^ and you are in my good graces these days for calling pupdurcs a "Twat muffin" iirc - well done, fuck that bitch........come here & hug it out with me buddy ...........I think it's interesting to examine this specifc angle that Trump is seemingly betting on - NC/Pa/Ga - it's just an interesting "bet" ...............and it could be pulling an inside straght or terribly misguided .........
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 23, 2024 17:21:09 GMT
How you can say either Shit Party is the one who "cares about Democracy" is pretty stupid.......on the other hand it is stupid funny so there's that.......who's President?
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 23, 2024 19:14:10 GMT
NTY/Siena polls today were bad for Harris but they're also wildly inconsistent. A 10-point swing from Harris +5 in AZ to Trump +5 after the debate?? Something's really wrong there.
Nate Cohn's been transparent about heavily modeling the electorate for potential shy Trump voters in line with 2016 and 2020, so basically a built-in assumption of and correction for past polling errors. Whether that materializes is left to see (is there even such a thing as a shy Trump voter in 2024?), but that still doesn't explain how they got Harris +5 in AZ just a few weeks ago. Very bizarre results.
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Post by urbanpatrician on Sept 23, 2024 19:17:43 GMT
Yeah definitely. She can sweep the rust belt and still lose even tho it's hard for EITHER to SWEEP the Rust Belt. They vote together most of the time but it can't be guaranteed. I think Trump is trying to make the Rust Belt essentially meaningless (but it's pretty much all swing-y/either way there too). He went to Long Island to hold a giant rally to try to get Senate seats in case it goes to a 269-269 tie (I admit unlikely). I don't think Arizona's a battleground state anymore. It's Trump's. You delusional & disingenuous election denier. That Virginia poll is ridiculously and obviously a goddamn OUTLIER. Every previous recent VA poll has her up by more than 5, so NOBODY with any credibility is taking that B.S. outlier even remotely serious. And LMAO at you thinking Trump has Arizona when most polls there have them either tied or up by 1 or 2 points. The 3 states consistently polling the closest are GA/AZ/NC (in that order). Plus Gallego is CRUSHING your looney tune gf Kari Lake in the senate race. Again, you're DELUSIONAL. Michigan and Wisconsin (both battlegrounds) are less close and more likely to go to Harris than AZ for Trump. But hey, election-deniers gonna poll-deny too, I guess. Ugh! #shameful #laughable Ok thats your opinion. I think Trump has the edge in Arizona and Georgia. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada and North Carolina are too close to call. Harris has the edge in Michigan. What polls you looking at MAN??? Cuz it ain't the ones I'm looking at. Plus there's the internals of each state which I don't even need to guess....I'm following more closely than you LMAO
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 23, 2024 20:21:01 GMT
all the battleground states should be winnable for Harris on paper (or vice versa minus MI which is going blue). The Anti-MAGA vote in AZ flipped the state blue in 2020 and kept it blue top of ticket in 2022. They don't like Trump there, at least not nearly as much as they like milquetoast normie Republicans. Same thing in GA, Kemp always outpaces the crazies by a lot. Plus reproductive rights are going to be top of mind in both states.
I wish Harris was campaigning in the sunbelt more. Consolidating support in the rust belt is the easiest way to get to 270 but GA, AZ and NC are absolutely possible pickups, and downballot dems are polling ahead in all of them.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 23, 2024 20:30:11 GMT
imagine the instability if Harris only squeaks by with exactly 270 (Rust Belt + NE 2nd). It's going to make Jan 6th look like a kid's birthday party i'd say vice versa but dems aren't exactly the ones walking around playing militia with assault rifles.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 23, 2024 20:37:41 GMT
Said this before....if you can't win an election against a weak candidate, who doesn't talk to the Press, with prices as high as they (still) are, with that border crisis, when you survive TWO assassination attempts / plots - including 1 where you literally get shot in the fucking head - AND get the most minority votes of any Republican candidate EVER (?) - AND where you are "likely" (imo) to flip back at least Arizona and Georgia..........it's time to break up the Republican Party and start over ...........how much of a hint do you need? 2024 is the Republican Party's Waterloo ffs........
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Post by quetee on Sept 23, 2024 20:46:06 GMT
imagine the instability if Harris only squeaks by with exactly 270 (Rust Belt + NE 2nd). It's going to make Jan 6th look like a kid's birthday party i'd say vice versa but dems aren't exactly the ones walking around playing militia with assault rifles. It could be a blowout and he will still pull the same bs. Trump knows he didn't win.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 23, 2024 20:50:31 GMT
not sure how Harris can be called a "weak candidate" based on levels of enthusiasm unseen since Obama, record-breaking donations (half a billion before the debate) and a surge in favorability unseen since post-9/11 Bush.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 23, 2024 20:51:57 GMT
imagine the instability if Harris only squeaks by with exactly 270 (Rust Belt + NE 2nd). It's going to make Jan 6th look like a kid's birthday party i'd say vice versa but dems aren't exactly the ones walking around playing militia with assault rifles.Oh yeah right say THAT ^ in a year where dems tried to actually kill the Republican twice with rifles .........how very MAR..........
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Post by quetee on Sept 23, 2024 20:58:14 GMT
I can't believe Trump is selling silver coins and Melania is selling a $600 necklace. This is beyond tacky.
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Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Sept 23, 2024 21:00:27 GMT
imagine the instability if Harris only squeaks by with exactly 270 (Rust Belt + NE 2nd). It's going to make Jan 6th look like a kid's birthday party i'd say vice versa but dems aren't exactly the ones walking around playing militia with assault rifles.Oh yeah right say THAT ^ in a year where dems tried to actually kill the Republican twice with rifles .........how very MAR..........
one independent who supported Haley/Ramaswamy tried to kill Trump =/= Trump encouraged an armed mob to kill his own VP and members of congress btw the first guy was a registered GOP but try again. Twitter is rotting your brain, pac.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 23, 2024 21:07:43 GMT
"not sure how Harris can be called a "weak candidate" based on levels of enthusiasm unseen since Obama, record-breaking donations (half a billion before the debate) and a surge in favorability unseen since post-9/11 Bush." She is polling "less ahead" than Clinton - and Clinton had a higher % of AA and Hispanics - and Clinton "lost" because she was considered a weak candidate - or so they say. I asked in this thread if Whitmer wouldn't have been a better candidate than Harris.......no one replied........ah well, shame that........donations aren't actually the point........you think Whitmer or Newsome would have got LESS Not sayig she can't win............I think she is likely to win........weak candidate anyway imo.........
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Post by mikediastavrone96 on Sept 23, 2024 21:15:02 GMT
not sure how Harris can be called a "weak candidate" based on levels of enthusiasm unseen since Obama, record-breaking donations (half a billion before the debate) and a surge in favorability unseen since post-9/11 Bush. She has to be seen as a weak candidate, right? She won the party nomination by default due to the incumbent's inability to campaign, doing so without any kind of primary. That's where most of the enthusiasm is: just people happy that Democrats won't be instantly ceding the election to Trump by running Biden*. That's also where much of the fundraising is coming from. The surge in favorability is maybe the only notable thing to indicate she's a decent candidate, but if she were then why is this election still looking so close? I'd chalk up the favorability surge to it originally being dogshit because she was tied to Biden's presidency (during which she was barely present) and now it's gone up because she's being directly compared to Trump. Trump is historically a weak candidate - in 2 elections he couldn't garner as much of the popular vote as fucking Romney - but he's been bailed out consistently by the Dems running candidates who play to big money donors instead of general public concerns. *Plus the Dems since Obama have ran Hillary, a terrible candidate, and Biden, who barely even campaigned, so not a high bar to get enthusiasm higher than them.
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Post by quetee on Sept 23, 2024 21:25:26 GMT
not sure how Harris can be called a "weak candidate" based on levels of enthusiasm unseen since Obama, record-breaking donations (half a billion before the debate) and a surge in favorability unseen since post-9/11 Bush. People are acting like she rolled out of bed and threw her hat in the ring. She's VP, for Pete's sake. The odds were always in her favor.
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Post by pacinoyes on Sept 23, 2024 21:27:25 GMT
Oh yeah right say THAT ^ in a year where dems tried to actually kill the Republican twice with rifles .........how very MAR..........
one independent who supported Haley/Ramaswamy tried to kill Trump =/= Trump encouraged an armed mob to kill his own VP and members of congress btw the first guy was a registered GOP but try again. Twitter is rotting your brain, pac. ................... if you think Harris losing by 270 - or even 269 to Trump - will be greeted by "Aw shucks - we'll win next time!" by the same people who burned cities to the ground and looted a couple Summers back - it would be you who had their brain rotted by Twitter ...... there's plenty of violent, Leftist, wackjobs too...........just admit it.......also I've already made this "impending violence/Civl War" post many times.......we are closer to agreeing than disagreeing I reckon
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