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Post by JangoB on Feb 13, 2024 13:55:14 GMT
--- NOTE ---
This poll is about the nominating stage, as in: what would the BP lineup look like under the old 5-movie system. Just to avoid confusion.
The 2022 vote is done and MAR's predicted BP Top 5 is above.
The movie that caused the most doubts (though not a lot of them) is All Quiet on the Western Front.
The movie that got closest to the five is Top Gun: Maverick (although it was still quite far).
And now let's see about 2021...
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Post by stephen on Feb 13, 2024 14:20:29 GMT
Belfast
CODA
Dune
Licorice Pizza
The Power of the Dog
I understand the mentality that CODA's shift happened post-nominations but I do think it is possible that it still would've gotten in because there was still a lot of love for it in the ether post-Sundance.
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Post by stabcaesar on Feb 13, 2024 14:27:49 GMT
Belfast
CODA
Dune
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
If you believe CODA wouldn't have been nominated under the old system you are delusional. It won Best Picture. If people didn't like it enough to nominate it how could it win? BP is voted by ALL members.
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Post by finniussnrub on Feb 13, 2024 14:49:38 GMT
Belfast CODA Dune The Power of the Dog West Side Story If you believe CODA wouldn't have been nominated under the old system you are delusional. It won Best Picture. If people didn't like it enough to nominate it how could it win? BP is voted by ALL members. While I agree it was in the five, its limited nomination haul compared to its wins suggests that many voters came to it late. |
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Post by JangoB on Feb 13, 2024 14:51:09 GMT
Now this is a damn brain teaser... I've got:
- Belfast
- Don't Look Up
- Dune
- The Power of the Dog
- West Side Story
Yeah, quite a lot to unpack here.
The ones I'm 100% confident in are Belfast and The Power of the Dog.
Dune's status was certainly soured by Villeneuve missing Director but it still got a shitton of nominations elsewhere and did incredibly well throughout the season. Since it was kind of seen as a sci-fi LOTR, I think it's reasonable to think it would've made it to the five.
West Side Story definitely seems like a solid AMPAS pick, even if not necessarily rock solid. But imagining it without a BP nomination makes no sense to me. A very acclaimed, Spielberg-directed musical to be a BD nominee only? Nah, dog.
And then I went with Don't Look Up. Cinephiles may not like it but it's obvious that the industry very much did, and with "prestige" McKay's undeniable hold on the Oscars, DLU could've easily ended up in the top five. It allowed Hollywood to rally around a message but do it in a fun way. I think they loved it. They really loved it.
So yeah, I actually don't think our eventual winner would've even been nominated. Even Licorice Pizza (which I almost went with) and King Richard make stronger cases tbh. CODA's kind of a unique case, surging way later in the season.
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Post by mikediastavrone96 on Feb 13, 2024 17:24:27 GMT
Belfast
Dune
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
Torn between CODA and King Richard. CODA obviously won Best Picture but it only received two other nominations which seems to indicate the love for it was not super strong at the nomination stage - no Jones, Matlin, or even Original Song? - but it did still have the SAG Ensemble nod. Meanwhile, King Richard had the wire-to-wire Best Actor frontrunner, a SAG Ensemble nod, and pulled in Supporting Actress and Film Editing nominations it was not entirely expected to receive.
I'll go with King Richard since it's the funnier outcome to me and I just can't quite square CODA's miniscule nomination total. It feels like the movie surged late and ultimately won because it was an agreeable movie in a year that didn't have a well-loved frontrunner.
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Post by paulgallo on Feb 13, 2024 19:14:14 GMT
Wanted to leave out CODA at first but then realized that this field is too weak for CODA not making the top 5.
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rhodoraonline
Badass
Your Generosity Hides Something Dirtier and Meaner
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Post by rhodoraonline on Feb 18, 2024 18:07:14 GMT
My first instinct was to go with obvi Top 5 (the winners of the poll) but than Jango kinda convinced me so I'd have switched Coda for DLU too. Such an interesting scenario. Shows how winning can be a totally different game than nominations lol.
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