Will B Coop Surpass DiCap For Oscar Nods?

He works a lot more frequently and not winning this year will only maximize his nomination chances for the next baity project he attaches himself to. He's probably going to keep racking them up until he wins, and then they'll move on.

It seems that DiCaprio is starting to suffer the same fate as Hanks did after Cast Away where the actors branch has voter fatigue with him. You would think that if DiCaprio is not a frontrunner he would at least get filler noms (like Denzel does) but with this and Don't Look Up it looks like the voters are looking elsewhere now. It hurts more with KOTFM because he was pegged as a serious contender at the beginning of 2023 and it just didn't happen. Everyone else (Scorsese, Gladstone, Best Picture nomination) got to eat today but not him. Maybe because he mostly does high profile prestige Oscar type films with auteurs, maybe the voters are fatigued with him. They peep the game.

This time last year, people were saying there was no way DiCaprio was missing for Scorsese's largest budget film.

He's gotten 5 acting nominations in 12ish years.  That's alot.  I could easily see him getting 5-7 more over the course of the next 30 years.  Nicholson's record isn't safe.  

8 nods at 50 is a crazy stat, but to end up with 12 when the dude may live into his 90s+ means his pace slowed enormously.  That's not a Streep level untouchable figure.  

 Yes, but it isn't safe from Denzel, not Leo. Like I said, Denzel has been very smart in how he handled his career. He never comes off too thirsty for nominations by baiting with almost every project.  Doing an Equalizer or a Book Of Eli (the type of commercial non-prestige projects some  types here look down on), before coming back with a Flight or a Fences is the next best thing to Daniel Day-Lewis taking 5 years off, so the industry and Oscar voters have plenty of time to miss him. 

Washington could easily potentially be on 10 nods next year, with Gladiator 2. That would be only 2 away from Jack. Good health permitting, and as long as he doesn't stop acting, he's got plenty of time in the next 15 + years to match Nicholson's record, the maybe surpass it. I personally think he will. I can't see a scenario where Washington doesn't get at least 3 more nods to tie Jack.

DiCaprio is getting into Hanks territory. The optics make it looks like he's trying too hard for nods every time out ( so does Cooper, but he's only been a thing in the last decade).  Where Hanks would bait all the time, but voters would look at his co-stars or nominate his films for Best Picture, but not go out of their way to nominate him. It doesn't make sense to predict another 7 nominations for him when you see the way other actors slowed down, and how he is starting to slow down. DiCaprio will get nodded again, but he may have already gotten the bulk of the nominations he's ever going to get.

It's good for maximizing the potential for getting nominated when you do have something baity, but when everything Leo does is baity (in a good sense), him having a lower batting average for the nom matters less.  Denzel will probably beat Nicholson first, but I don't think he'll necessarily hold the record that long.  

The rhythm of DiCaprio's nominations hasn't really changed.  He was treated like trash between Gilbert Grape and The Aviator, but settled into a "Yeah, we'll give you a nom here and there" pattern.  He certainly hasn't gone a decade without recognition like Hanks, or allowed himself to lower the estimation of his filmography to where that would be in the cards.  Denzel is 20 years older than Leo and has 3 more nominations.  

All Leo needs is for you to be a witness.  He'd live with 10 noms and 30 Best Picture nominees.  

That's only if he gets nominated EVERY time

I said it before - everyone dissing Jack has to really look how extraordinary his record is - and he's had that record since 11 nods - 27 years ago..........:
 
There are 3 solo records - not shared with anyone -  to break for male actors imo:

1. Pacino's 5 Triple Crown wins - exists since 2011 - may be matched this year / next (by Kline / Rylance)  - so that's the first to go 

2. Nicholson's 12 nods - the 2nd hardest imo

3. The hardest one - DDL's 3 Best Actor Oscar wins - this will last a loooooooooooooong time unless DiCap can win one soon imo - it is much harder to do this for a male than a female - it just is 

Here's a thread for #3 btw below - so for DiCap fans maybe you thnk he gets #2 AND #3 or ties #3 anyway:

movie-awards-redux.freeforums.net/post/408913/thread