Top 5 Best Picture contenders as of right now?

Same 5 but swap The Greatest Showman with The Post.

Honestly Dunkirk and Detroit's release dates and genres make me pause. They might be top 5, but I'll list another 5:

Call Me By Your Name
Darkest Hour
The Greatest Showman
The Post
Wonderstruck

1. The Post (Fox) - With a new scandal coming out almost everyday or sometimes even several times a day from Washington, this film as the potential to be very relevant in how important the press is. However, I am worried that it's not going to be done in time since I don't think filming has even started, and it's now June. Spielberg can work fast, but I don't know about that fast. Plus, as we've seen recently with Oscars that it's hard for late openers to build enough momentum to win Best Picture, and if there's any controversy at all which there probably will be, there probably won't be enough time for it to back to win.

2. Call Me By Your Name (SPC) - Looks like it could be the critical favorite of the year.

3. The Florida Project (A24) - I think this will be A24's number one, and I think on paper it has a lot going for it. Best Original Screenplay seems like a good possibility. SAG loves kids, so there's a chance that they end up adoring this film and showering it with love. While Call Me By Your Name and Moonlight are different, I do think that Call Me By Your Name might be hurt in terms of Best Picture chances by Moonlight winning last year since some voters and some pundits will think that they're the basically the same, and The Florida Project would be a totally different way for AMPAS to go yet still being able to vote for an "important" film. Willem Dafoe is a twice nominated veteran who has been around a long time in the Industry and has a much higher profile than Michael Stuhlbarg does right now. Plus, AMPAS is has a history of being kinder to young females than it does young males, so it may be easier for Bria Vinaite to score another acting nomination especially in Best Supporting Actress which has been a very kind category to young actresses whereas Timothée Chalamet is probably going to be borderline all year long for a nomination since the Best Actor category is so unfriendly towards young actors.

4. Inner City (Sony) - Fences wasn't as big as I thought it was going to be commercially, but Washington is still a consistent draw, so this could be huge commercially and do well enough critically to make it into the top 5. Further, I'm not sure if Washington can win this year, but I think he'll give Gary Oldman a run for his money. I also see Colin Farrell finally getting a "welcome to the club" nomination perhaps even more depending if the televised awards follow the critics' awards, or if they break away and do their own thing in this category.

5. Dunkirk (WB) - Even if it doesn't get any acting nominations, I think that it might be too big of a technical achievement to miss the top 5. Of course, it's always possible that Chistopher Nolan misses again, but Dunkirk seems like the best the film with the best chance to be the "tech" film like Mad Mad: Fury Road or Gravity.

Wonderstruck, CMBYN, Darkest Hour, Phantom Thread, Detroit

Alt. The Post