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Post by wilcinema on Jan 8, 2024 14:22:03 GMT
Animated Feature is one of the most interesting races this year. I predicted Miyazaki for the Globes, and now I feel he'll cruise on to the Oscars too. I doubt BAFTA will go for Spider-Verse.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Jan 8, 2024 14:22:05 GMT
Obviously Bafta and SAG can shake things up but the way I see the race currently is: BP: Oppenheimer clear frontrunner with KotFM as possible but unlikely spoiler Actor: Murphy vs Giamatti Actress: Gladstone the frontrunner with Stone as a spoiler (but not a heated race) Supporting Actor: RDJ sweep Supporting Actress: Randolph sweep Will be interesting to see if there will be any wild momentum shifts I wonder if the Holdovers is the spoiler in picture. With Randolph sweeping, Giamatti win competitive and god knows what’s going on in original screenplay. Though it might be one of those years where it doesn’t really matter what is in second place. Like last year.
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Post by mhynson27 on Jan 8, 2024 14:26:40 GMT
Yeah, I think Holdovers is #2.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 8, 2024 14:28:18 GMT
As someone who doubted Cooper - sight unseen from the start - why was he ever a frontrunner I asked in October - October ffS? - the SAG race is between Murphy and Giamatti- I've said this before Giamatti is a 4 time SAG winner (1 ensemble) - he's the Viola Davis / Nicole Kidman of SAG men or something and a 3 time Golden Globe winner now (1 more than DDL and Denzel Washngton btw) - and his movie has a winner who is going to sweep........doubt him at your own peril but Cooper is obviously 3rd This is nothing like Butler / Fraser - edit: both not great to say the least - which had different dynamics as a 2 person race............Murphy may sweep tbh.......and Murphy SHOULD sweep - great reviews, 1 billion ollars, in almost every scene, his POV The math ain't mathin' or whatever that chick said
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 8, 2024 14:29:35 GMT
Obviously Bafta and SAG can shake things up but the way I see the race currently is: BP: Oppenheimer clear frontrunner with KotFM as possible but unlikely spoiler Actor: Murphy vs Giamatti Actress: Gladstone the frontrunner with Stone as a spoiler (but not a heated race) Supporting Actor: RDJ sweep Supporting Actress: Randolph sweep Will be interesting to see if there will be any wild momentum shifts I wonder if the Holdovers is the spoiler in picture. With Randolph sweeping, Giamatti win competitive and god knows what’s going on in original screenplay. Though it might be one of those years where it doesn’t really matter what is in second place. Like last year. Honestly I think you’re right and that was an oversight in my post. I’d put it at 2, followed by KotFM and then either Barbie/Poor Things at 4/5
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 8, 2024 14:41:30 GMT
Ok state of the races... I missed all this
Picture: Oppenheimer sweep incoming, with BAFTA, PGA and DGA pretty much assured. SAG is still possible but not really confident Director: Nolan sweep. Nomination for Triet over Glazer, Payne and Song Actor: Probably headed for a Murphy win, who'll win BAFTA. What will SAG do? He's the favorite but not overwhelming favorite there. Nomination for Andrew Scott over Jeffrey Wright Actress: Gladstone is the center of attention for KOTFM, which helps. She's the frontrunner, but I still wouldn't rule out a Stone win, if she wins SAG or BAFTA Supporting: Randolph and RDJ sweeps Original Screenplay: Anatomy of a fall has a strong case after the Globes, it can win BAFTA. But with The Holdovers getting so much organic love, it's still a contender Adapted Screenplay: This is probably Oppenheimer. Curious to see what Critics' Choice do here, as I feel BAFTA will go for Oppy. Among also-rans, I sense an All Of Us Strangers nod over The Zone of Interest and American Fiction Cinematography: Oppenheimer sweep Editing: Oppenheimer sweep Production Design: Barbie as a clear frontrunner, with possibly Poor Things as the spoiler. Nomination for Wonka or Asteroid City Costume Design: Barbie and Poor Things in a heated race. Nomination for Wonka Original Score: Oppenheimer in a likely sweep. Nominations for both Levi and Hisaishi Makeup and Hair: With Cooper fading, this might go to Poor Things. Nominations for Society of the snow and Killers of the flower moon over Golda Song: "What was I made for?" sweep Sound: Oppenheimer sweep Visual Effects: No idea. Maybe Guardians? Though Poor Things should win this one Animated Feature: Miyazaki as the frontrunner International Film: The Zone of Interest as the safe prediction, but I think something is up with this category. Society of the snow and especially The taste of things have a chance
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Post by JangoB on Jan 8, 2024 15:07:11 GMT
I'm still telling you that Bradley Cooper wins SAG and the situation will be turned around. Or the situation remains the same with Cooper winning SAG a-la Denzel for Fences and Murphy Caseyafflecking his way through the rest of the awards.
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Jan 8, 2024 15:19:34 GMT
Even taking away Murphy's momentum, and the fact that he's in a much stronger film, Lead Actor winners at SAG just don't have the poor audience scores that Maestro has. Even though most people here seem to hate The Whale (myself included), general audiences loved it. It has a 91% audience score and made over 50M on a 3M budget. Plus, he had the narrative.
Malek won because Bohemian Rhapsody was such a massive hit. Who is enjoying Maestro that much? The only narrative Cooper has is "overdue" and that's debatable. Murphy and Giamatti are in a much stronger position. I think Giamatti wins.
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Post by Billy_Costigan on Jan 8, 2024 15:22:28 GMT
I think Oppenheimer is sweeping but The Holdovers is #2 as a potential spoiler. KOTF checks off most of the same boxes as Oppenheimer but I don't think it has a better case in any scenario. The Holdovers could be the emotional alternative, especially if it wins SAG.
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rhodoraonline
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Post by rhodoraonline on Jan 8, 2024 15:39:31 GMT
Fairly predictable results I guess. Oppy vs Poor Things for BP, Murphy for Actor, Stone vs Gladstone for actress as many expected. Would be cool if Randolph could win supporting. I've a feeling its Murphy vs Giamatti but yeah, Murphy's odds seem heavier. I'd be happy with either winning
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SZilla
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Post by SZilla on Jan 8, 2024 16:14:21 GMT
Very happy for Murphy, Nolan, and especially Boy and the Heron. Still got a lot to see from this past year though, with Poor Things feeling like the #1 priority.
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Post by Joaquim on Jan 8, 2024 16:31:06 GMT
I for one can’t wait for Cooper and Mulligan to play Julius and Ethel Rosenberg in a few years. The Qataris will fund the movie in exchange for nuclear secrets, similar to the deal Texas A&M got just to go 7-5 and lose their bowl game
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Archie
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Post by Archie on Jan 8, 2024 16:34:41 GMT
Can't believe I'm feeling bad for a millionaire slightly above average actor, but jeez. Cooper is really getting clowned on right now. Feels like everyone online just hates the guy.
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Nikan
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Post by Nikan on Jan 8, 2024 16:44:41 GMT
Can't believe I'm feeling bad for a millionaire slightly above average actor, but jeez. Cooper is really getting clowned on right now. Feels like everyone online just hates the guy. I was JUST watching this lmao:
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Drish
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Post by Drish on Jan 8, 2024 17:17:30 GMT
Can't believe I'm feeling bad for a millionaire slightly above average actor, but jeez. Cooper is really getting clowned on right now. Feels like everyone online just hates the guy. Me too, I feel bad for him. I like him as an actor.
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Jan 8, 2024 17:19:39 GMT
Can't believe I'm feeling bad for a millionaire slightly above average actor, but jeez. Cooper is really getting clowned on right now. Feels like everyone online just hates the guy. Me too, I feel bad for him. I like him as an actor. I do too and thought he should have won for A Star is Born. I don’t really want him to win for Maestro (especially over Murphy or Giamatti) but don’t think he deserves to be kicked when he’s down.
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Post by stephen on Jan 8, 2024 17:20:11 GMT
Can't believe I'm feeling bad for a millionaire slightly above average actor, but jeez. Cooper is really getting clowned on right now. Feels like everyone online just hates the guy. Honestly, I think he'd be doing a lot better if he just avoided the circuit entirely. I feel like this coupled with Austin Butler last year and Gaga the year before that is showing that people might be getting turned off by the big preparation stories. Daniel Day-Lewis never talked about his process and that built up his mystique and mythos; Cooper needed to have other people really doing that for him, like Mulligan or Spielberg (who apparently handpicked Cooper to direct the film itself). Cooper talking about it feels so disingenuous, and he's already got kind of an air about him where he's trying so very fucking hard for an Oscar.
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Post by finniussnrub on Jan 8, 2024 17:37:16 GMT
Me too, I feel bad for him. I like him as an actor. I do too and thought he should have won for A Star is Born. I don’t really want him to win for Maestro (especially over Murphy or Giamatti) but don’t think he deserves to be kicked when he’s down. If he's truly "down" from, worst case scenario, being merely a 10 time Oscar nominee, then that speaks to him having a far too fragile ego more than anything.
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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 8, 2024 17:56:55 GMT
I do too and thought he should have won for A Star is Born. I don’t really want him to win for Maestro (especially over Murphy or Giamatti) but don’t think he deserves to be kicked when he’s down. If he's truly "down" from, worst case scenario, being merely a 10 time Oscar nominee, then that speaks to him having a far too fragile ego more than anything.
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Post by countjohn on Jan 8, 2024 19:12:29 GMT
Fairly predictable results I guess. Oppy vs Poor Things for BP, Murphy for Actor, Stone vs Gladstone for actress as many expected. Would be cool if Randolph could win supporting. I've a feeling its Murphy vs Giamatti but yeah, Murphy's odds seem heavier. I'd be happy with either winning I would love it if Giamatti won but Murphy's hype train seems to be too much.
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Post by countjohn on Jan 8, 2024 19:16:33 GMT
Can't believe I'm feeling bad for a millionaire slightly above average actor, but jeez. Cooper is really getting clowned on right now. Feels like everyone online just hates the guy. Cooper is going to be able to keep making these mid budget dream projects of his and dated JLO and Irina Shayk. He's good without a little gold statue.
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Pasquale
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Post by Pasquale on Jan 8, 2024 20:16:37 GMT
Disagree. Stone could easily win. Her performance, imo, towers over all other performances of 2023 the way Blanchett's did in 2022. And I know Cate lost, and Gladstone's performance is vastly superior to Yeoh's, but Yeoh was a clear lead, a veteran, and starring in the BP frontrunner. If Gladstone wins SAG, I'll concede she's the frontrunner. If Emma Stone is happy to be winning stuff (and I'm sure she is), we can call her Glad Stone. So Gladstone is a frontrunner either way this year. lel
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Post by RiverleavesElmius on Jan 8, 2024 20:20:19 GMT
Does anyone know if the ceremony is streaming in any of the services? Hulu used to always have it, but I guess now that it's CBS instead of NBC they don't have the rights anymore. I want to relive all the fabulous wins (i.e. at least 75% of all the winners), ESPECIALLY all the SUCCESSION ones.
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filmnoir
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Post by filmnoir on Jan 8, 2024 20:43:49 GMT
Can't believe I'm feeling bad for a millionaire slightly above average actor, but jeez. Cooper is really getting clowned on right now. Feels like everyone online just hates the guy. The on-line trolls are always going to find someone to hate on. They hated Angela Bassett, Jamie Lee Curtis, Nicole Kidman, Renee Zellweger, etc. etc. They thought J-Lo was a better actress than Laura Dern, lol. Bradley Cooper's fine. He's in the enviable position where he can star, direct, write, produce his own films. Can't say that of most of the winners. And we're not talking about indie pics.
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Post by pacinoyes on Jan 8, 2024 20:56:29 GMT
Does anyone know if the ceremony is streaming in any of the services? Hulu used to always have it, but I guess now that it's CBS instead of NBC they don't have the rights anymore. I want to relive all the fabulous wins (i.e. at least 75% of all the winners), ESPECIALLY all the SUCCESSION ones. Theoretically here or Paramount + but maybe not The speeches play at least........... www.cbs.com/shows/golden-globes/
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