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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 17, 2023 17:33:24 GMT
I want to turn the tables to Best Actress or "Screen Actors Guild Award for Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role". This year's best actress race looks extremely stacked and we have about 9 strong contenders. For the last two Oscar seasons, SAG and Oscar have lined up 3/5 in this category. The last time we had a perfect match was in 2009.
THE PRECURSOR AWARDS Golden Globe Drama + Critics Choice - Lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moon, Sandra Huller for Anatomy of a Fall, Greta Lee for Past Lives, and Carey Mulligan for Maestro. Golden Globe Comedy/Musical + Critics Choice - Margot Robbie for Barbie & Emma Stone for Poor Things.
Golden Globe Drama - Annette Bening for Nyad & Cailee Spaeny for Priscilla. Golden Globe Comedy/Musical - Fantasia Barrino for The Color Purple, Jennifer Lawrence for No Hard Feelings, Natalie Portman for May December, and Alma Poysti for Fallen Leaves.
Gladstone won the New York Film Critics, National Board of Review, and Boston Film Critics Best Actress trophies. Stone took home Chicago Film Critics and Los Angeles Film Critics acting awards. Sandra Huller won a leading performance Los Angeles Film Critics award for both Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest.
Spaeny won the Volpi Cup Best Actress award. Since 2016, 5 out of the 7 Volpi Best Actress winners have gone on to land a Best Actress nomination. The two exceptions were Charlotte Rampling for Hannah (2017) and Ariane Ascaride for Gloria Mundi (2019). Hannah was released into 2 U.S theaters between March 9th and 11th of 2018, and that's it. Gloria Mundi never got a U.S release period.
Going to throw Abby Ryder Fortson for Are You There God? It's Me, Margaret and Teyana Taylor for A Thousand and One as the wildcards.
I fully expect this one to be a great debate.
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Post by JangoB on Dec 17, 2023 17:49:00 GMT
- Gladstone - Stone - Robbie - Mulligan - Bening  |
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Post by stephen on Dec 17, 2023 17:49:37 GMT
I feel like Huller misses here but rebounds with BAFTA, taking out Bening.
Barrino, Bening, Gladstone, Mulligan, Stone.
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 17, 2023 18:05:43 GMT
- Gladstone - Stone - Robbie - Mulligan - Bening That's pretty much my reaction. I am tempting to go Barrino and Spaeny for the sake of Oscar chaos. |
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Post by DanQuixote on Dec 17, 2023 23:19:52 GMT
Gladstone
Stone
Robbie
Mulligan
Barrino (or Bening. I can’t really decide)
If Hüller gets in here, it will be a massive boost to her chances of winning.
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 18, 2023 0:27:34 GMT
- Gladstone - Stone - Robbie - Mulligan - Bening That's pretty much my reaction. I am tempting to go Barrino and Spaeny for the sake of Oscar chaos. Let it go friend |
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Post by wilcinema on Dec 18, 2023 17:41:33 GMT
Stone, Gladstone, Mulligan, Robbie and Portman.
Bening as the alt.
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speeders
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Post by speeders on Dec 18, 2023 17:43:44 GMT
Gladstone, Stone, Portman, Mulligan, Robbie.
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Post by stabcaesar on Dec 18, 2023 17:46:47 GMT
Gladstone, Stone, Robbie, Portman, Lee.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 18, 2023 17:54:09 GMT
Gladstone
Stone
Robbie
Mulligan
Fantasia
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Post by RiverleavesElmius on Dec 19, 2023 19:42:56 GMT
Why on earth is anyone hear still trying to pretend like Barrino (or TCP for that matter) are happening??? It underperformed massively in the GG's, and they are waaay friendlier to that kind of musical Oscar-bait than SAG, and it's getting lackluster reviews. Barrino is NOT happening. Atm, Brooks is the only likely major nom the film will get, and even that could be in jeopardy IF the reviews are even worse than just lackluster.
Lead Actress at the Oscars breaks down like this for me: Stone and Gladstone are 100% LOCKS. Robbie still a tiny bit of a ? because the type of movie/role, but IF she gets into SAG (and I believe she will), she'll become the 3rd Oscar lock, period. And then, you'll have Huller, Lee, Mulligan and Portman playing musical chairs for the last 2 spots. Those are, imho, the only 7 real contenders in the category.
Of those 4, I probably feel most comfortable that Huller will make it at the Oscars, but like most, I expect the inevitable SAG snub that is then evened out by the inevitable BAFTA nom.
So, as of right now, I predict...
At SAG:
1. Stone
2. Gladstone
3. Robbie
4. Mulligan
5. Lee (though it could just as easily be Portman)
At the Oscars:
1. Stone
2. Gladstone
3. Robbie
4. Huller
5. Lee (Mulligan might be safer bet, but with the passion for the movie/her performance + the undeniable "inclusion" angle, I really have a strong feeling it'll be Lee).
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Post by stephen on Dec 19, 2023 19:45:52 GMT
Why on earth is anyone hear still trying to pretend like Barrino (or TCP for that matter) are happening??? It underperformed massively in the GG's, and they are waaay friendlier to that kind of musical Oscar-bait than SAG, and it's getting lackluster reviews. Berrino is NOT happening. Atm, Brooks is the only likely major nom the film will get, and even that could be in jeopardy IF the reviews are even worse than just lackluster. Lead Actress at the Oscars breaks down like this for me: Stone and Gladstone are 100% LOCKS. Robbie still a tiny bit of a ? because the type of movie/role, but IF she gets into SAG (and I believe she will), she'll become the 3rd Oscar lock, period. And then, you'll have Huller, Lee, Mulligan and Portman playing musical chairs for the last 2 spots. Those are, imho, the only 7 real contenders in the category. Of those 4, I probably feel most comfortable that Huller will make it at the Oscars, but like most, I expect the inevitable SAG snub that is then evened out by the inevitable BAFTA nom. So, as of right now, I predict... At SAG: 1. Stone 2. Gladstone 3. Robbie 4. Mulligan 5. Lee (though it could just as easily be Portman) SAG-AFTRA is the most populist branch, especially after the expansion in their voting bodies to include influencers and the like. And even though The Color Purple's not getting the greatest reviews, it plays more to SAG than any of the other industry bodies. Plus the timing of the embargo versus voting means that there might be little time for a consensus to form before people have time to really think back on the film in retrospect (which I am sure was a strategy in holding it until the very last moment). Barrino could miss but she can't be dismissed out of hand. |
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 20, 2023 0:33:24 GMT
Why on earth is anyone hear still trying to pretend like Barrino (or TCP for that matter) are happening??? It underperformed massively in the GG's, and they are waaay friendlier to that kind of musical Oscar-bait than SAG, and it's getting lackluster reviews. Berrino is NOT happening. Atm, Brooks is the only likely major nom the film will get, and even that could be in jeopardy IF the reviews are even worse than just lackluster. Lead Actress at the Oscars breaks down like this for me: Stone and Gladstone are 100% LOCKS. Robbie still a tiny bit of a ? because the type of movie/role, but IF she gets into SAG (and I believe she will), she'll become the 3rd Oscar lock, period. And then, you'll have Huller, Lee, Mulligan and Portman playing musical chairs for the last 2 spots. Those are, imho, the only 7 real contenders in the category. Of those 4, I probably feel most comfortable that Huller will make it at the Oscars, but like most, I expect the inevitable SAG snub that is then evened out by the inevitable BAFTA nom. So, as of right now, I predict... At SAG: 1. Stone 2. Gladstone 3. Robbie 4. Mulligan 5. Lee (though it could just as easily be Portman) SAG-AFTRA is the most populist branch, especially after the expansion in their voting bodies to include influencers and the like. And even though The Color Purple's not getting the greatest reviews, it plays more to SAG than any of the other industry bodies. Plus the timing of the embargo versus voting means that there might be little time for a consensus to form before people have time to really think back on the film in retrospect (which I am sure was a strategy in holding it until the very last moment). Barrino could miss but she can't be dismissed out of hand. We have about 9 or 10 names potentials here for SAG. Barrino could very well get in, especially if it gets Ensemble (which we will talk about on here). |
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 9, 2024 0:47:26 GMT
Bumping up Best Lead Actress. Lily and Emma won Globes. All of these actresses made the BAFTA longlist:
Annette Bening, NYAD
Carey Mulligan, Maestro
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Fantasia Barrino, The Color Purple
Greta Lee, Past Lives
Lily Gladstone, Killers of The Flower Moon
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Mia McKenna-Bruce, How to Have Sex
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Vivian Oparah, Rye Lane
Mia and Vivian did not make the choice list.
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