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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 15, 2023 1:06:55 GMT
On January 10th, the Screen Actors Guild will announce their 30th annual awards for acting and stunt ensemble. I want to start off by talking about the "Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role" category. Historically, at least 3/5 Best Actor nominees will get nominated for an acting Oscar. Normally we see a 4/5 match with the Oscars. Adam Sandler (2022), Forest Whittaker (2013), Demián Bichir (2011) and Peter Dinklage (2003) are the only recent SAG Best Actor nominees without a Golden Globe or Critics Choice nomination.
Last year, SAG got 4/5 correct. Paul Mescal got the Oscar nod over Adam Sandler. SAG went 5/5 in 2020 and 2021. In 2019, they went 3/5 for the first-time since 2013. Dicaprio, Driver, and Phoenix scored Oscar nominations, but Christian Bale and Taron Egerton did not.
PRECURSOR AWARDS Golden Globe Best Actor in a Drama + Critics Choice Best Actor - Bradley Cooper, Leonardo Dicaprio, Colman Domingo, Cillian Murphy
Golden Globe Best Actor in a Comedy/Musical + Critics Choice Best Actor -Paul Giamatti, Jeffrey Wright
Golden Globe Best Actor in a Drama - Barry Keoghan, Andrew Scott Golden Globe Best Actor in a Comedy/Musical - Nicolas Cage, Timothée Chalamet, Matt Damon, Joaquin Phoenix (Beau is Afraid)
Paul Giamatti won the National Board of Review, Chicago Film Critics and Boston Film Critics Best Actor trophy.
Fraz Rogowski from Passages won the New York Film Critics Circle Best Actor trophy. The Los Angeles Film Critics Association did not pick a male actor for their acting awards.
That's 13 contenders, if we include Rogowski. I am going to add Joaquin Phoenix for Napoleon, Teo Yoo for Past Lives, Christian Friedel for The Zone of Interest, Jamie Foxx for Burial, Adam Driver for Ferrari, and Zac Efron for The Iron Claw into the mix.
Who do you believe is getting nominated?
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Post by JangoB on Dec 15, 2023 1:09:35 GMT
I'm feeling:
- Cooper
- Murphy
- Giamatti
- Wright
- Domingo
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 15, 2023 1:12:46 GMT
I'm feeling: - Cooper - Murphy - Giamatti - Wright - Domingo I am going with Dicaprio over Domingo. Movie popularity mainly. |
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Post by stephen on Dec 15, 2023 1:23:15 GMT
Cooper, DiCaprio, Domingo, Giamatti, Murphy.
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 15, 2023 1:32:49 GMT
I have a feeling, people here are going to go with the CCA nominees, minus either Dicaprio or Domingo. For me, I think Wright could be the odd man out. Dicaprio's performance in Killers is a pretty atypical role for him and wearing a lot of makeup for the role. I would love to hear an argument for Efron or Foxx. SAG doesn't usually go for performances without Critics Choice or Globe nominations.
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allaby
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Post by allaby on Dec 15, 2023 1:44:37 GMT
Bradley Cooper, Leonardo Dicaprio, Cillian Murphy, Paul Giamatti, Jeffrey Wright
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rhodoraonline
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Your Generosity Hides Something Dirtier and Meaner
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Post by rhodoraonline on Dec 15, 2023 18:34:32 GMT
Andrew Scott would so deserve a nomination over here. Man's been performaing ace level for ages. It's about time. I wish a miracle happens and he can bump Leo for a spot (unlikely tho').
I think Jeffrey Wright is safe.
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Post by wallsofjericho on Dec 15, 2023 18:40:49 GMT
Leonardo DiCaprio
Bradley Cooper
Paul Giamatti
Jeffrey Wright
Cillian Murphy
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Post by finniussnrub on Dec 16, 2023 1:41:22 GMT
I'm feeling: - Cooper - Murphy - Giamatti - Wright - Domingo I'd be interested in your reasoning for no DiCaprio, do you think Killers is going to under-perform overall? |
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Post by JangoB on Dec 16, 2023 1:59:00 GMT
I'm feeling: - Cooper - Murphy - Giamatti - Wright - Domingo I'd be interested in your reasoning for no DiCaprio, do you think Killers is going to under-perform overall? For me this prediction (which I'm still totally doubting) is less about them not appreciating DiCaprio's performance and more about them tending to include smaller basic-ass stuff like Rustin, and I just couldn't figure out whom to throw out in favor of Domingo... because I really can't imagine this lineup without Cooper, Murphy, Giamatti & Wright. I'm also remembering Michelle Williams being snubbed last year for a performance that some deemed affected so maybe something similar can happen to DiCaprio. Although I understand that Williams's snub probably had more to do with her category placement. Or maybe I'm just overthinking this and Domingo misses. All in all I'm predicting 3 nominations for Killers - Ensemble, Actress & Supporting Actor. But maybe I should pencil it in for Stunts as well if we go by the example of The Irishman  |
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Post by finniussnrub on Dec 16, 2023 2:09:08 GMT
I'd be interested in your reasoning for no DiCaprio, do you think Killers is going to under-perform overall? For me this prediction (which I'm still totally doubting) is less about them not appreciating DiCaprio's performance and more about them tending to include smaller basic-ass stuff like Rustin, and I just couldn't figure out whom to throw out in favor of Domingo... because I really can't imagine this lineup without Cooper, Murphy, Giamatti & Wright. I'm also remembering Michelle Williams being snubbed last year for a performance that some deemed affected so maybe something similar can happen to DiCaprio. Although I understand that Williams's snub probably had more to do with her category placement. Or maybe I'm just overthinking this and Domingo misses. All in all I'm predicting 3 nominations for Killers - Ensemble, Actress & Supporting Actor. But maybe I should pencil it in for Stunts as well if we go by the example of The Irishman Fair enough, and I suppose he did miss for Wolf, though I think that was because of how late that film released/was screened. |
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Post by finniussnrub on Dec 16, 2023 2:12:03 GMT
Andrew Scott would so deserve a nomination over here. Man's been performaing ace level for ages. It's about time. I wish a miracle happens and he can bump Leo for a spot (unlikely tho'). I think Jeffrey Wright is safe. I think Scott misses SAG but definitely gets in at BAFTA, and potentially "spoils" on Oscar morning. As the British support needs to go somewhere, though it could just go to Murphy (quick note: I know Irish is not British, but judging by BAFTA last year, BAFTA definitely favors them.) |
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 16, 2023 17:17:34 GMT
Here's my top 5 for SAG. For now, I am playing the cards safe and go with the Globe + CCA nominees.
1. Bradley Cooper - Front runner to win Best Actor and likely to win Critics Choice and/or Globe Drama.
2. Cillian Murphy - Top competitor with Cooper.
3. Leonardo Dicaprio - Critics Circles rarely mention him, but he's in a major Best Picture front-runner and does the makeup thing the Academy seems to adore.
4. Paul Giamatti - Likely to win the Globe for Actor in a Comedy/Musical. Unlike the other three above him, he is not playing a real-life person. Boston and NBR wins do help his case.
5. Jeffrey Wright - Fantastic performance in a movie that makes audiences cry and laugh. Domingo could very well get this spot.
Honorable mention: Colman Domingo (real-life person, but is the passion there for the film?)
Don't be shocked: Zac Efron. SAG has both movie and tv actors participating. They could see it as his first "grown-up movie". Kind of like how they honored Sarah Silverman for I Smile Back.
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rhodoraonline
Badass
Your Generosity Hides Something Dirtier and Meaner
Posts: 1,026
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Post by rhodoraonline on Dec 16, 2023 18:37:20 GMT
Andrew Scott would so deserve a nomination over here. Man's been performaing ace level for ages. It's about time. I wish a miracle happens and he can bump Leo for a spot (unlikely tho'). I think Jeffrey Wright is safe. I think Scott misses SAG but definitely gets in at BAFTA, and potentially "spoils" on Oscar morning. As the British support needs to go somewhere, though it could just go to Murphy (quick note: I know Irish is not British, but judging by BAFTA last year, BAFTA definitely favors them.) It all comes down to Leo I think. If the SAG/Academy are not too charmed by him, then maybe Scott does have a shot...? But what worried me is that he doesn't seem to be getting too much focused support from the critics circle either... although that doesn't really matter in the end. |
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Post by Brother Fease on Jan 8, 2024 14:54:51 GMT
Bump. Anybody want to change their mind or are we okay with Cooper, DiCaprio, Golden boy Giamatti, Golden boy Murphy, and Wright getting a SAG nod. Could Yoo be the surprise nominee? He made the BAFTA short list.
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Post by stabcaesar on Jan 8, 2024 15:01:57 GMT
Cooper, DiCaprio, Gimatti, Murphy, Wright.
Wright misses the Oscar nod in favour of Scott.
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Post by wilcinema on Jan 8, 2024 15:03:24 GMT
Murphy
Cooper
Giamatti
DiCaprio
Domingo
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