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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Oct 22, 2023 2:19:53 GMT
The last major category that doesn’t have a thread (even a few techs do). So might as well get it out of the way now…
The top 4 to me seem solid
Downey
De Niro
Gosling
Ruffalo
After that I have no clue. Could be any of
Dafoe
Melton
Magaro
Sessa
Domingo
I’m saying Dafoe for now because of the strength of the film and their general love for him. Melton, Magaro and Sessa all kind of have the same problem. They aren’t very well known. Melton picked up a lot of steam in New York though and Sessa has a very strong film and a borderline lead role. Domingo is a popular prediction and he’s the man of the hour right now but I can honestly see Hawkins (in the role that was actually nominated for a Tony) stealing some of his thunder.
I can honestly see a world where Damon got a coattail not but there are other candidates for that so I don’t really think so. I would die of happiness if Howerton was nominated but it doesn’t seem like anybody saw that movie. I’m just hoping for a placement at one of the big critics awards.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Oct 22, 2023 2:21:42 GMT
As for winning I’m saying Downey but I could see a year like 2012 where the precursors are really spread out and it’s possibly any of the top 4 win.
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Post by stephen on Oct 22, 2023 2:55:17 GMT
I'm in agreement on those being the top five, though I think Mescal is being underrated, as is his film.
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Post by pupdurcs on Oct 22, 2023 3:08:13 GMT
Matt Damon should be in the mix for supporting actor for Oppenheimer as well as Downey jr. His performance really gave the movie a much needed jolt of energy when it was in danger of flagging with it's lengthy run-time.
Shit, at this point, Matt Damon should be in the conversation almost every time he shows up in a film these days. He's great in Air this year as well, deserved a nomination for The Last Duel.... At this point, I feel he's taken Jeff Bridges old title as the most underrated great actor in film (Bridges lost that title when he finally got the Oscar). Damon, imho, is whom most people think Tom Hanks is (meaning yes, I think he's better than Hanks). I can't see how Damon ends his career without an acting Oscar. And I do think Damon is right up there (if not arguably the best) with the more flashy "greatest film actors of his generation" ( Bale, DiCaprio and Phoenix)
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Oct 22, 2023 3:47:44 GMT
I'm in agreement on those being the top five, though I think Mescal is being underrated, as is his film. I feel kind of the same but about Scott in lead. I have the film pretty strongly in for adapted and in that 11-13 place in Picture. |
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Post by stephen on Oct 22, 2023 3:51:29 GMT
I'm in agreement on those being the top five, though I think Mescal is being underrated, as is his film. I feel kind of the same but about Scott in lead. I have the film pretty strongly in for adapted and in that 11-13 place in Picture. I think the BAFTA bump is going to benefit that film, and Picture/Actor/Supporting Actor/Adapted Screenplay is very gettable with how rapturous the critical response has been. It's going to come down to timing, of course, but I think this and Saltburn will enjoy a stronger reaction from that contingent, and we have to see where the crossover lies and who they back. |
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Oct 22, 2023 3:55:11 GMT
I feel kind of the same but about Scott in lead. I have the film pretty strongly in for adapted and in that 11-13 place in Picture. I think the BAFTA bump is going to benefit that film, and Picture/Actor/Supporting Actor/Adapted Screenplay is very gettable with how rapturous the critical response has been. It's going to come down to timing, of course, but I think this and Saltburn will enjoy a stronger reaction from that contingent, and we have to see where the crossover lies and who they back. I see what you mean. I don’t really take much stock in juries categories though unless I believe they are top three (Scott could be) I’m keeping a keeping a close eye on Picture and adapted screenplay though. Honestly more screenplay than anything. It seems to be a really good indicator lately for these extended lineups. |
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Post by wilcinema on Oct 22, 2023 5:41:28 GMT
The Globes are usually a very good indicator of whether a movie is getting two supporting actors/actresses nominated, I’m very curious to see what they do.
Right now I’d have Dafoe in fifth mostly because I think he’d be nominated for a BAFTA under the old rules but it’s a very shaky prediction.
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Post by sterlingarcher86 on Oct 22, 2023 5:43:23 GMT
The Globes are usually a very good indicator of whether a movie is getting two supporting actors/actresses nominated, I’m very curious to see what they do. Right now I’d have Dafoe in fifth mostly because I think he’d be nominated for a BAFTA under the old rules but it’s a very shaky prediction. Generally I agree on the Globes but they are going to be 6 nominees now so I’m not sure how much we can use them |
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Post by mhynson27 on Oct 22, 2023 13:06:13 GMT
Suspected 4+Sessa.
RDJ for the win.
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Post by stephen on Oct 22, 2023 13:15:42 GMT
As for the winner, Downey, Jr. ticks the most boxes. A strong and beloved movie (and I am not convinced Murphy or Blunt can win), he's a veteran who can be seen as overdue (should've won in '92 and was arguably second to Ledger in '08), and is at the right point in his career for an anointment, and it's a career highlight. Gosling could happen but I'd need to see evidence of Barbie overperforming (i.e. Robbie in Actress and Gerwig in Director) before I can shift gears there, but I think Gosling will likely win the Globe if they run him in Comedy/Musical Lead.
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dazed
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Post by dazed on Oct 22, 2023 13:24:26 GMT
deniro
downey
gosling*
ruffalo
mescal
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Post by finniussnrub on Oct 22, 2023 13:27:02 GMT
Downey
De Niro
Gosling
Ruffalo
All seem pretty good bets at this venture.
Dafoe or Damon I think are possible if their films perform to their apex.
The younger mostly or completely unknown Melton and Sessa, don't really fit too well into the typical profile of a supporting actor nominee. I'd say both would need critical pushes.
Magaro isn't happening unless Past Lives is big, I don't see him anyway being the sole nominee type.
Domingo actually *might* not be in the game at all, as that role has always been ignored. It was ignored with Danny Glover, it was ignored by the Tonys for both the original and the revival. He'll need some stellar individual notices I think.
Mescal is my bet at the moment just by the reviews, by the afterglow factor and by the fact that again look where the BAFTA support is likely to go.
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Post by finniussnrub on Oct 22, 2023 13:33:08 GMT
Winner wise, the top four presents an interesting setup as two villains (De Niro, Downey) and two comedic turns (Gosling, Ruffalo). Of the four I do think two time winner De Niro is probably the least likely, despite having great reviews, but the nature of his role might give some voters pause (though those voters are idiots). The other three can all claim "overdue" status, though technically Ruffalo will have the most nominations to his name. He'll even tie the supporting actor record. Downey isn't a slam-dunk type turn either though, because he's more of a snake than the grandiose type villain. Could happen but maybe won't. Leaving the chance for a Kevin Kline to happen, though I think Ruffalo and Gosling both being comedic, maybe even hurts those chances. So...winner wise I have no idea.
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Post by DanQuixote on Oct 22, 2023 13:42:32 GMT
1. Robert Downey, Jr., Oppenheimer
2. Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things
3. Ryan Gosling, Barbie
4. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things
6. Dominic Sessa, The Holdovers
7. Colman Domingo, The Color Purple
8. Charles Melton, May December
9. Sterling K. Brown, American Fiction
10. Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers
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Post by pacinoyes on Oct 22, 2023 14:01:11 GMT
This a hard category to care about since it seems so RDJ ......I had thought that De Niro would contend but now having seen it and his arc.......not likely, particularly as I already said in my Oppy review - RDJ gets a great arc and that last scene gives the pic a winning, memorable arc too......
Too much money, made for too many people, for too long to stop RDJ this year.......... + his character arc........
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Post by JangoB on Oct 22, 2023 14:10:03 GMT
- RDJ
- RDN
- Gosling
- Ruffalo
- Dafoe
RDJ wins.
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Post by Brother Fease on Oct 22, 2023 16:30:25 GMT
DeNiro, Gosling, and Downey Jr feel like locks to me. I'll go with Ruffalo and Brown for the last two spots. Brown is my no guts, no glory pick. Speaking of wishful thinking, going to hold a prayer circle for Howerton and Messina.
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Post by wallsofjericho on Oct 22, 2023 16:35:57 GMT
This a hard category to care about since it seems so RDJ ......I had thought that De Niro would contend but now having seen it and his arc.......not likely, particularly as I already said in my Oppy review - RDJ gets a great arc and that last scene gives the pic a winning, memorable arc too...... Too much money, made for too many people, for too long to stop RDJ this year.......... + his character arc........ Which Bobby performance did you prefer? I might actually slightly favour Downey (for the reasons you mentioned) but I did love Bobby D. |
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Post by stephen on Oct 22, 2023 16:40:52 GMT
This a hard category to care about since it seems so RDJ ......I had thought that De Niro would contend but now having seen it and his arc.......not likely, particularly as I already said in my Oppy review - RDJ gets a great arc and that last scene gives the pic a winning, memorable arc too...... Too much money, made for too many people, for too long to stop RDJ this year.......... + his character arc........ Which Bobby performance did you prefer? I might actually slightly favour Downey (for the reasons you mentioned) but I did love Bobby D. I know you didn't ask me, but Best Supporting Actor is murderously tough to pick out a favourite for me so far among the top three contenders of RDJ, Gosling and De Niro. I think Gosling probably had the hardest job to pull off and stuck the landing marvelously (and did it in less than half an hour of screentime; you'd have thought he was in the movie for so much longer than he actually is) and De Niro is operating at a peak he hasn't touched in decades, but Downey, Jr. had I think the more inherently fascinating role of the three and knocked it out of the park (and the film's twist in regards to that character is pulled off so flawlessly, in no small part due to Downey, Jr.'s charm). I think I'd be personally more overjoyed at a Gosling win only because of the meta aspect of someone winning an Oscar for playing Ken (and the Kevin Kline comparisons absolutely are merited), but I think Downey, Jr. might have the edge for me overall. |
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Post by pacinoyes on Oct 22, 2023 17:07:28 GMT
This a hard category to care about since it seems so RDJ ......I had thought that De Niro would contend but now having seen it and his arc.......not likely, particularly as I already said in my Oppy review - RDJ gets a great arc and that last scene gives the pic a winning, memorable arc too...... Too much money, made for too many people, for too long to stop RDJ this year.......... + his character arc........ Which Bobby performance did you prefer? I might actually slightly favour Downey (for the reasons you mentioned) but I did love Bobby D. There's quite a bit of diference imo between what De Niro is doing vs. Downey ....Downey is kind of playing a dick version of himself............his villain role is just to be a prick and offer you a counter to Oppy ......De Niro is actually playing something more complex.....much broader canvas to paint on.......even in his "great" roles in the 2000s (Everybody's Fine, SLP, Wizard of Lies, Irishman) he was much more narrowly drawn in all of those.......what's interesting about his villain is he is not particularly quotable and he has plenty of lines .........that's weird ......in the scene where he "whips" DiCap he's actually at a broader range of feeling emotionally than any character he's had in a loooooooooooooooong time - and that's in just that scene ........ I don't think De Niro can win though - I think Gosling could (doubt it) but not De Niro........the way KotFM ends I think diminishes De Niro - where Downey is doing his best acting right up until the end of the run time as the film is reaching a crescendo ....... |
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Oct 22, 2023 23:23:03 GMT
RDJ
De Niro
Ruffalo
Damon
Mescal
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Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Oct 26, 2023 4:27:41 GMT
even in his "great" roles in the 2000s (Everybody's Fine, SLP, Wizard of Lies, Irishman) he was much more narrowly drawn in all of those....... Hmmm, I’d say his performance in Killers is pretty comparable to Wizard of Lies, and I’m not sure I’d say he’s necessarily more narrowly drawn there. In both, he’s manipulative, masking his own evil with sociopathic charisma, often stating his convictions very matter-of-factly, refusing to acknowledge certain potential consequences, rationalizing his actions. One of the interesting differences between Wizard of Lies and Killers is that, in the former, we see his confidence eventually cracking, whereas in the latter his confidence remains disturbingly steadfast right up to the end. “THE FRONT IS THE FRONT AND THE BACK IS THE BACK!!" |
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Post by mikediastavrone96 on Oct 26, 2023 4:46:53 GMT
“THE FRONT IS THE FRONT AND THE BACK IS THE BACK!!" "Look at me like this makes sense." |
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Post by JangoB on Dec 12, 2023 1:12:08 GMT
- Downey Jr.
- Gosling
- Ruffalo
- Melton
- De Niro
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