|
Post by Brother Fease on Dec 9, 2022 0:23:00 GMT
First off, congrats to all the winners. I have already updated the big board. AFI Top Ten is tomorrow. I'll make sure to add those winners to the list. Here are your stats: Since 2009, only A Violent Year and Da Bloods won NBR's Best Film Award and failed to score a Best Picture nomination. Overall, we're talking about a 77-78% accuracy. If you look at 1980 and beyond, we have had six exceptions -- 2000's Quills, 1998's Gods and Monsters, 1987's Empire of the Sun, and 1983's Betrayal, which tied Terms of Endearment that year. Best Director is not so accurate. They are for 11 for 22 this century. Best Actor and Adapted Screenplay are 17 for 23.
Best Actress 17 for 22.
Best Supporting Actor 20 for 22.
Best Supporting Actress 14 for 22.
|
|
|
Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Dec 9, 2022 7:39:58 GMT
Interesting stat that I came across about Top Gun's NBR win on AW:
The only other times NBR awarded Picture to a movie that had made $100M+ at the time of the awards are Mad Max: Fury Road, Forrest Gump (BP winner), and Silence of the Lambs (BP winner)...... and those latter two are much closer to Maverick's mainstream audience response than Fury Road.
|
|
|
Post by Brother Fease on Dec 9, 2022 11:58:22 GMT
Interesting stat that I came across about Top Gun's NBR win on AW: The only other times NBR awarded Picture to a movie that had made $100M+ at the time of the awards are Mad Max: Fury Road, Forrest Gump (BP winner), and Silence of the Lambs (BP winner)...... and those latter two are much closer to Maverick's mainstream audience response than Fury Road. My faith in TG:M has gone up over the last two days. Satellite Academy nominated the film for Drama, Director, Actor, Adapted Screenplay and Editing. NBR gave it Best Film and Best Cinematography. I am thinking that Joseph Kosinski gets into the Best Director race.
|
|
filmnoir
Full Member
Posts: 820
Likes: 408
|
Post by filmnoir on Dec 9, 2022 15:09:45 GMT
Interesting stat that I came across about Top Gun's NBR win on AW: The only other times NBR awarded Picture to a movie that had made $100M+ at the time of the awards are Mad Max: Fury Road, Forrest Gump (BP winner), and Silence of the Lambs (BP winner)...... and those latter two are much closer to Maverick's mainstream audience response than Fury Road. My faith in TG:M has gone up over the last two days. Satellite Academy nominated the film for Drama, Director, Actor, Adapted Screenplay and Editing. NBR gave it Best Film and Best Cinematography. I am thinking that Joseph Kosinski gets into the Best Director race. The Satellites are similar to the Globes with their Drama/Comedy Musical splits. NBR is hardly a benchmark for Oscar. Rarely do their Best Picture wins goes on to win the Oscar. I can't see the prickly Director's branch nominating Kosinski.
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Dec 9, 2022 15:15:57 GMT
My faith in TG:M has gone up over the last two days. Satellite Academy nominated the film for Drama, Director, Actor, Adapted Screenplay and Editing. NBR gave it Best Film and Best Cinematography. I am thinking that Joseph Kosinski gets into the Best Director race. The Satellites are similar to the Globes with their Drama/Comedy Musical splits. NBR is hardly a benchmark for Oscar. Rarely do their Best Picture wins goes on to win the Oscar. I can't see the prickly Director's branch nominating Kosinski. Yeah, I would feel a lot more confident in Top Gun: Maverick winning Best Picture if Kosinski and/or Cruise got in. If they both do, I'd say it's probably a done deal at that point.
|
|
filmnoir
Full Member
Posts: 820
Likes: 408
|
Post by filmnoir on Dec 9, 2022 15:59:33 GMT
Even if Kosinski gets nominated with precursors like DGA, GG, BFCA - he likely will be vulnerable to get cut by the AMPAS Directors Branch - like Villeneuve (for Dune) was last year.
|
|
|
Post by quetee on Dec 9, 2022 16:03:04 GMT
Even if Kosinski gets nominated with precursors like DGA, GG, BFCA - he likely will be vulnerable to get cut by the AMPAS Directors Branch - like Villeneuve (for Dune) was last year. he didn't direct bp frontrunner.
|
|
|
Post by Brother Fease on Dec 9, 2022 16:21:24 GMT
My faith in TG:M has gone up over the last two days. Satellite Academy nominated the film for Drama, Director, Actor, Adapted Screenplay and Editing. NBR gave it Best Film and Best Cinematography. I am thinking that Joseph Kosinski gets into the Best Director race. The Satellites are similar to the Globes with their Drama/Comedy Musical splits. NBR is hardly a benchmark for Oscar. Rarely do their Best Picture wins goes on to win the Oscar. I can't see the prickly Director's branch nominating Kosinski. We will see what happens, but I just have a sense, that TG:M is a bigger contender than we thought back in May. I am pretty confident we will see Kosinski will get Best Director mentions at least one of the following: Globes, Critics Choice, DGA, BAFTA.
|
|
filmnoir
Full Member
Posts: 820
Likes: 408
|
Post by filmnoir on Dec 9, 2022 17:16:45 GMT
Even if Kosinski gets nominated with precursors like DGA, GG, BFCA - he likely will be vulnerable to get cut by the AMPAS Directors Branch - like Villeneuve (for Dune) was last year. he didn't direct bp frontrunner. But CODA's Director wasn't nominated either. Winning NBR hardly anoints TGM as the Oscar Best Picture front runner. Rarely do their BP winners go on to win the Oscar.
|
|
|
Post by quetee on Dec 9, 2022 17:45:30 GMT
he didn't direct bp frontrunner. But CODA's Director wasn't nominated either. Winning NBR hardly anoints TGM as the Oscar Best Picture front runner. Rarely do their BP winners go on to win the Oscar. Each year we make the mistake of saying this or that never does this at the Oscars and we are proven wrong each and every time. Did you watch the movie? Those shots were awesome. We are not talking about a stagey drama here.
|
|
filmnoir
Full Member
Posts: 820
Likes: 408
|
Post by filmnoir on Dec 9, 2022 17:58:10 GMT
But CODA's Director wasn't nominated either. Winning NBR hardly anoints TGM as the Oscar Best Picture front runner. Rarely do their BP winners go on to win the Oscar. Each year we make the mistake of saying this or that never does this at the Oscars and we are proven wrong each and every time. And each year we make the mistake of saying this or that will win and we are proven wrong each and every time. Last year at this time, it was all about Kristen Stewart, Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of The Dog, Kodi Smith McPhee, Kirsten Dunst.
|
|
|
Post by quetee on Dec 9, 2022 18:04:00 GMT
Each year we make the mistake of saying this or that never does this at the Oscars and we are proven wrong each and every time. And each year we make the mistake of saying this or that will win and we are proven wrong each and every time. Last year at this time, it was all about Kristen Stewart, Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of The Dog, Kodi Smith McPhee, Kirsten Dunst. Not everybody was saying that. Point is we write something off and we are always surprised. Sometimes we just have to read the room and right now to say that Women Talking is ahead of Maverick is misguided.
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Dec 9, 2022 18:10:08 GMT
And each year we make the mistake of saying this or that will win and we are proven wrong each and every time. Last year at this time, it was all about Kristen Stewart, Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of The Dog, Kodi Smith McPhee, Kirsten Dunst. Not everybody was saying that. Point is we write something off and we are always surprised. Sometimes we just have to read the room and right now to say that Women Talking is ahead of Maverick is misguided. Women Talking has a stronger likelihood of another above-the-line win than Top Gun: Maverick does. In fact, Sarah Polley probably has the clearest path to an Oscar out of anyone in the Top 8 categories. Her category is a wasteland. Couple that with the likelihood that it gets several nominations in acting and direction, that makes it a very big threat for the win and I don't think it is misguided at all to have it ahead of a summer blockbuster that, while definitely a huge money-maker with its own big narrative, isn't usually what wins Best Picture without maximizing nominations elsewhere. Fury Road couldn't seal the deal, after all, and that movie did hit just about everything it needed to as far as nominations went. Right now, Top Gun: Maverick is doing very well and there is a path for a win, but it's by no means a frontrunner. Spielberg, Polley, even McDonagh all have reasonable claims to that as well, and God knows what's coming with Cameron.
|
|
filmnoir
Full Member
Posts: 820
Likes: 408
|
Post by filmnoir on Dec 9, 2022 18:24:41 GMT
And each year we make the mistake of saying this or that will win and we are proven wrong each and every time. Last year at this time, it was all about Kristen Stewart, Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of The Dog, Kodi Smith McPhee, Kirsten Dunst. Point is we write something off and we are always surprised. Yet you already wrote Brendan Fraser off as someone who won't even be nominated.
Things can change, but the odds at this point of Fraser not winning - doesn't mean he won't get nominated.
|
|
|
Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Dec 9, 2022 19:00:33 GMT
Not everybody was saying that. Point is we write something off and we are always surprised. Sometimes we just have to read the room and right now to say that Women Talking is ahead of Maverick is misguided. Women Talking has a stronger likelihood of another above-the-line win than Top Gun: Maverick does. In fact, Sarah Polley probably has the clearest path to an Oscar out of anyone in the Top 8 categories. Her category is a wasteland. Couple that with the likelihood that it gets several nominations in acting and direction, that makes it a very big threat for the win and I don't think it is misguided at all to have it ahead of a summer blockbuster that, while definitely a huge money-maker with its own big narrative, isn't usually what wins Best Picture without maximizing nominations elsewhere. Fury Road couldn't seal the deal, after all, and that movie did hit just about everything it needed to as far as nominations went. Right now, Top Gun: Maverick is doing very well and there is a path for a win, but it's by no means a frontrunner. Spielberg, Polley, even McDonagh all have reasonable claims to that as well, and God knows what's coming with Cameron. For writing, right? I wouldn’t be shocked if she ended up missing a Director nom.
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Dec 9, 2022 19:01:08 GMT
Women Talking has a stronger likelihood of another above-the-line win than Top Gun: Maverick does. In fact, Sarah Polley probably has the clearest path to an Oscar out of anyone in the Top 8 categories. Her category is a wasteland. Couple that with the likelihood that it gets several nominations in acting and direction, that makes it a very big threat for the win and I don't think it is misguided at all to have it ahead of a summer blockbuster that, while definitely a huge money-maker with its own big narrative, isn't usually what wins Best Picture without maximizing nominations elsewhere. Fury Road couldn't seal the deal, after all, and that movie did hit just about everything it needed to as far as nominations went. Right now, Top Gun: Maverick is doing very well and there is a path for a win, but it's by no means a frontrunner. Spielberg, Polley, even McDonagh all have reasonable claims to that as well, and God knows what's coming with Cameron. For writing, right? I wouldn’t be shocked if she ended up missing a Director nom. Yes, Adapted Screenplay.
|
|
havok2
Junior Member
Posts: 396
Likes: 184
|
Post by havok2 on Dec 9, 2022 19:03:57 GMT
Not even these wanna touch Women Talking
|
|
|
Post by quetee on Dec 9, 2022 20:45:10 GMT
Point is we write something off and we are always surprised. Yet you already wrote Brendan Fraser off as someone who won't even be nominated.
Things can change, but the odds at this point of Fraser not winning - doesn't mean he won't get nominated.
Look at the performance of his movie. The Whale is not doing whale at all. See what I did there. Haha
|
|
|
Post by mhynson27 on Dec 9, 2022 22:38:33 GMT
Yet you already wrote Brendan Fraser off as someone who won't even be nominated.
Things can change, but the odds at this point of Fraser not winning - doesn't mean he won't get nominated.
Look at the performance of his movie. The Whale is not doing whale at all. See what I did there. Haha He's still easily getting nominated. You are aware of how weak his category is right??
|
|
|
Post by mhynson27 on Dec 9, 2022 22:39:02 GMT
Not everybody was saying that. Point is we write something off and we are always surprised. Sometimes we just have to read the room and right now to say that Women Talking is ahead of Maverick is misguided. Women Talking has a stronger likelihood of another above-the-line win than Top Gun: Maverick does. In fact, Sarah Polley probably has the clearest path to an Oscar out of anyone in the Top 8 categories. Her category is a wasteland. Couple that with the likelihood that it gets several nominations in acting and direction, that makes it a very big threat for the win and I don't think it is misguided at all to have it ahead of a summer blockbuster that, while definitely a huge money-maker with its own big narrative, isn't usually what wins Best Picture without maximizing nominations elsewhere. Fury Road couldn't seal the deal, after all, and that movie did hit just about everything it needed to as far as nominations went. Right now, Top Gun: Maverick is doing very well and there is a path for a win, but it's by no means a frontrunner. Spielberg, Polley, even McDonagh all have reasonable claims to that as well, and God knows what's coming with Cameron.Daniels
|
|
filmnoir
Full Member
Posts: 820
Likes: 408
|
Post by filmnoir on Dec 9, 2022 22:46:08 GMT
Yet you already wrote Brendan Fraser off as someone who won't even be nominated.
Things can change, but the odds at this point of Fraser not winning - doesn't mean he won't get nominated.
Look at the performance of his movie. The Whale is not doing whale at all. See what I did there. Haha You are completely contradicting yourself. #Double Standard.
I don't think Brendan Fraser is going to win, but it doesn't mean he won't get nominated. Not a lot of competition in Best Actor.
|
|
|
Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 9, 2022 22:50:18 GMT
For writing, right? I wouldn’t be shocked if she ended up missing a Director nom. Yes, Adapted Screenplay. Also a strong contender for SAG ensemble and maybe supporting actress (who knows what’s going on there)
|
|
|
Post by sterlingarcher86 on Dec 9, 2022 22:52:33 GMT
Women Talking has a stronger likelihood of another above-the-line win than Top Gun: Maverick does. In fact, Sarah Polley probably has the clearest path to an Oscar out of anyone in the Top 8 categories. Her category is a wasteland. Couple that with the likelihood that it gets several nominations in acting and direction, that makes it a very big threat for the win and I don't think it is misguided at all to have it ahead of a summer blockbuster that, while definitely a huge money-maker with its own big narrative, isn't usually what wins Best Picture without maximizing nominations elsewhere. Fury Road couldn't seal the deal, after all, and that movie did hit just about everything it needed to as far as nominations went. Right now, Top Gun: Maverick is doing very well and there is a path for a win, but it's by no means a frontrunner. Spielberg, Polley, even McDonagh all have reasonable claims to that as well, and God knows what's coming with Cameron. For writing, right? I wouldn’t be shocked if she ended up missing a Director nom. Honestly think only Spielberg is 100% safe for a nod.
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Dec 9, 2022 22:55:34 GMT
Women Talking has a stronger likelihood of another above-the-line win than Top Gun: Maverick does. In fact, Sarah Polley probably has the clearest path to an Oscar out of anyone in the Top 8 categories. Her category is a wasteland. Couple that with the likelihood that it gets several nominations in acting and direction, that makes it a very big threat for the win and I don't think it is misguided at all to have it ahead of a summer blockbuster that, while definitely a huge money-maker with its own big narrative, isn't usually what wins Best Picture without maximizing nominations elsewhere. Fury Road couldn't seal the deal, after all, and that movie did hit just about everything it needed to as far as nominations went. Right now, Top Gun: Maverick is doing very well and there is a path for a win, but it's by no means a frontrunner. Spielberg, Polley, even McDonagh all have reasonable claims to that as well, and God knows what's coming with Cameron. Daniels Yeah, them too.
|
|
|
Post by wallsofjericho on Jan 12, 2024 6:46:35 GMT
DDL presented Best Director to Scorsese.
|
|