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Post by mhynson27 on Apr 26, 2024 11:33:12 GMT
Well damn, I really thought he was getting a better edit than coming 9th with an idol in his pocket.
Kenzie or Charlie feels right atm.
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Post by mhynson27 on May 2, 2024 13:49:44 GMT
What in the actual fuck was that temper tantrum from Liz?!? Girl is entitled as fuckkkkkk.
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Post by stephen on May 2, 2024 14:06:22 GMT
I love how emotionally volatile this cast is. More of this, Jeff. Q needs to be a permanent player on every season and we need more Liz-types who lose their fucking shit just because they didn't get a Bourbon burger from Applebee's. (Also the edit of this episode was hilarious in how it kept twisting the knife in Liz because she wasn't getting on the reward she desperately wanted, and frankly the back half of the episode suffered in comparison to what I think might be my favourite reward of the new era.)
Week Ten leaderboard:
1. Maria: She rallied the troops and got what she wanted, and she managed to do it in a way that showed she was the leader and not Charlie. I am worried it's going to backfire, though -- she was so eager to have this scalp on her belt that I think people are going to turn on her before they ever do on Charlie or Ben. And I think Charlie and Ben both know that if Maria has this big move to her name, she has to go sooner rather than later. I'll give her the top spot for now but I think this was the quintessential "big move too early" of the new era.
2. Ben: Honestly, I think we really have to consider Ben as a major threat. He's been shown to hate Q's guts but he put that aside in favour of the "smart" move of flushing Tiff's idol, and no one's really clocking him. Maybe I'm just overthinking it but I feel like Ben going rogue from Kenzie here is what is going to separate their games, and I feel like they're setting up the idea that the right time to blindside someone's #1 ally is what will be the game-winning move. That's why I think in terms of winners, it might come down to Ben or...
3. Charlie. All of the upside of Maria and Ben with none of the downside, but I have him at third because I feel like he's being set up as the big immunity threat of the season that gets sniped at the very end. I feel Ben can camouflage himself easier than Charlie, but Charlie has stronger winner equity at this time.
4. Q. Somehow managed to scrape past what should've been an easy vote, and I think now he's safe enough that he's going to coast to the finals as a goat. The Sigas will want to turn on each other, Kenzie and Venus will immediately want to go after them as they flipped on them for the Tiff vote, and I think Liz will really be the only one amped to get Q out now.
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Post by mhynson27 on May 2, 2024 22:34:17 GMT
Eh, still not seeing it with Ben tbh. Charlie, Maria or Kenzie for sure.
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Post by stephen on May 2, 2024 22:47:53 GMT
Eh, still not seeing it with Ben tbh. Charlie, Maria or Kenzie for sure. I think one of Maria and Charlie are gone next. I feel like there's no way they don't gun for the duo next.
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Post by mhynson27 on May 3, 2024 13:47:13 GMT
Eh, still not seeing it with Ben tbh. Charlie, Maria or Kenzie for sure. I think one of Maria and Charlie are gone next. I feel like there's no way they don't gun for the duo next. That should happen in theory, but we may be overestimating the others.
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Post by stephen on May 3, 2024 14:08:01 GMT
I think one of Maria and Charlie are gone next. I feel like there's no way they don't gun for the duo next. That should happen in theory, but we may be overestimating the others. Fair point, but I think Kenzie is going to feel betrayed here and want to regain control, and I think everyone's going to key in on Charlie as a budding challenge beast and Maria as the one who spearheaded the Tiffany blindside. I feel like Q bought himself a one-way trip to the final three here, because as we've seen in every season in the new era, this is the point where the self-proclaimed "big threats" start gunning for each other. Maria, Charlie and Kenzie are currently the three players who I think have the highest win equity if they sit at the end, and I can't imagine that the others are willing to sit back and let them coast to the end. And also, I think Charlie recognizes that right now, Maria has a big notch on her belt with the Tiff move that he can't really claim, and he's going to want her out before the end. If I had to guess, I'd say right now, one of Charlie or Maria is going next (provided one doesn't win immunity and the other finds the idol). Probably Maria; I feel Charlie's edit has more longevity than her, and Maria's story kinda feels complete now. She got her big move, and it fuels Q's story as how he survives to the end. And there is a running theme about taking out your #1 is a game-winning move; it only makes sense to see the duo turn on each other, and I think Charlie gets the upper hand. But then I think Charlie might wind up exposed, and either he chains immunities to the end or he's our fallen angel at five. Assuming that Q/Venus/Liz aren't immediately targeted (because you have to think at least two of them are in the F3 at this point), that leaves Kenzie and Ben. And they do have a running narrative that I think is going to come into play soon, maybe even in fire. We did see Kenzie get literally burned by her torch in this most recent episode -- is that foreshadowing?
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Post by stephen on May 9, 2024 12:47:03 GMT
Right, so now I understand why we've been getting Hunter and Tiffany showing off their idols at the end of the previously-ons. The second I saw Venus find the idol, it clicked with me and I went, "Oh, no..." And sure enough...
Right. Week Eleven leaderboard:
1. Charlie. Successfully shifted his place as Maria's #1 onto Q, but it seems that Maria still thinks she's Charlie's #1, and Maria and Q are going to be targeted well before Charlie. It is baffling to me that they've gone this far into the merge and no one's like, "Uh, we should get out Charlie because he's Siga." Plus Charlie clearly also has Ben on-side, plus Kenzie and Liz. I feel that's our majority coalition.
2. Kenzie. Bounced back really nicely after being left out of the vote and she got to at least justify herself here. She did have to wind up cutting Venus, but she wasn't ride-or-die with her, and Q/Maria are still public enemies over her. I was worried for Kenzie's chances after last episode, but I feel much better now after this episode.
3. Maria. Seriously has her head on the chopping block and would've gone home this episode if she hadn't won immunity, and it looks like she's still going to be the big target going in next week. But she kept status quo and got out Venus, but I feel like unless she goes on an immunity run (which is possible), her days are numbered.
4. Ben. By virtue of not being Q or Liz, but still, there's something nagging me about Ben's edit. He doesn't feel completely invisible, and at random spikes we get moments of strategy where he articulates the situation, and it feels deliberate. He did vote Kenzie for some reason (to protect against an idol?), and I'm gonna need him to justify that.
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Post by mhynson27 on May 9, 2024 13:58:43 GMT
Gotta be Charlie or Kenzie for sure. I genuinely think I might have Q above Ben at this point, he's become so irrelevant. Kinda wish Venus made it to FTC, just so we could have seen the jury absolutely eviscerate her. And don't even get me started on Liz
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Post by stephen on May 9, 2024 14:14:49 GMT
Gotta be Charlie or Kenzie for sure. I genuinely think I might have Q above Ben at this point, he's become so irrelevant. Kinda wish Venus made it to FTC, just so we could have seen the jury absolutely eviscerate her. And don't even get me started on Liz Nah, I'm glad Venus is on the jury. I think she'd be much more fun as a bitter juror raking the final three over the coals, rather than getting dismissed as a goat. I dunno, I feel like Liz did have some equity with Q and Venus in the game but now that Venus is gone, I don't see it. I would say that Q might have an argument over Ben but when half the jury despises you, you really have to sell yourself hard somehow. Q needs to be sitting with Liz and Ben now, and even then, I still think Ben wins by a vote or two . . . but I wonder if we get the first plurality win in that situation. Ben gets Charlie and probably Kenzie, Maria goes either Ben or Q (she's tight with both), Tiffany might go Q if she's not bitter, Venus votes Liz, and that leaves Soda/Tevin/Hunter. All three original Nami (Liz's original tribe), all of whom feel up in the air. I feel like Q's antics in the Tevin vote might still linger on his and Soda's minds so Q would have to bust his ass to sell them on his game after putting out a possible quit. And I feel like Ben can actually take some credit in the Hunter blindside as we see him being the instigating voice in that vote in the episode, which I feel they wouldn't show unless it was significant down the line. Ben actually does have some strategic weight to his name. He's been on the right side of the votes since the merge (assuming Kenzie was a safety vote in case of an idol play, which was smart because Venus did have the idol), the edit has given him credit for Hunter and he's been shown as making key decisions like siding with Q (his nemesis) over Tiffany in her blindside, he's squarely in the middle of all conversations even more than Maria and Charlie are, and if they go out at 6 and 5, he can reasonably take credit for a lot of their gameplay. Then it's him versus Kenzie, which would make the fire imagery and their big moment together on the beach with Ben's panic attack come full circle. Ben either goes out and Kenzie's our winner, or Ben defeats Kenzie and the narrative becomes Ben slaying the mermaid-dragon who made the mistake of taking care of the one person she shouldn't have, because he won the game. That said, Q could win the game as well but he would have to sell himself hard. But the man is a top-ranked real estate salesman, so that is his job. And they did leave out Q refusing to let the people he picked for Applebee's try to give up their spot for Liz, while showing Maria absolutely burying herself the following episode. Either they didn't want to do too much to Q because they already had a surfeit of gold with him and that would've been potentially too negative . . . or he's our winner.
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Post by mhynson27 on May 9, 2024 15:55:37 GMT
My comment about Liz was more to do with her as a person, rather than her win equity.
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Post by stephen on May 9, 2024 16:42:35 GMT
My comment about Liz was more to do with her as a person, rather than her win equity. Oh, I figured, but I feel like people on the island don't feel the way about Liz that you (or the general audience) do. I think Liz is seen in-game as probably someone who doesn't need the money, but no one actively dislikes her that we've seen save for maybe Q. I do think Liz likely flushed any shot at a win when Venus went out, but there is a world where she, Q and Ben sit at the end and if she could swing all Nami to her side, that might be enough to win, especially if Ben and Q split votes. That's why I hope that's our Final Three, because I can see arguments for all three and it would be a close vote no matter what.
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Post by mhynson27 on May 9, 2024 23:36:36 GMT
Why would you want a final 3 with the less deserving half of the F6 though?!?
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Post by stephen on May 10, 2024 2:52:26 GMT
Why would you want a final 3 with the less deserving half of the F6 though?!? Deserve's got nothin' to do with it. If you can't get to the final three, you don't deserve the win.
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Post by stephen on May 16, 2024 14:10:32 GMT
FOUR IN A ROW??? FIVE TIMES IN ONE SEASON???
This is the true Ghost Island idol.
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Post by stephen on May 16, 2024 14:18:46 GMT
Week 12 leaderboard:
1. Kenzie. Barring a shocker at FTC or losing fire, I think she's won the game. My thinking is either she sits with Ben and Liz and sweeps, or she sits next to Charlie and Ben, ties with Charlie, and Ben casts the tie-breaking vote for her.
2. Charlie. Less of an overt target than Maria, but I feel he needs to outright slay Kenzie to have a chance at the win now. He needs Maria gone next, and then Kenzie out at fire. (We did see Kenzie get burned by her torch, so that could be foreshadowing one way or the other?)
3. Liz. She made the final three.
4. Ben. He also made the final three.
5. Maria. She has higher win equity than Ben and Liz, but a much tougher path to navigate. She has to immunity-win at five, take out Charlie or Kenzie then, and then beat the other at fire. Possible but I feel she's public enemy #1 right now.
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