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Post by stabcaesar on Oct 31, 2022 2:50:03 GMT
Butler
Farrell
Fraser
Nighy
And someone completely random for the 5th slot.
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Post by pupdurcs on Dec 10, 2022 7:56:32 GMT
Congratulations Austin Butler for winning your first Best Actor Oscar!
Haha...maybe a bit premature, but the threat of Fraser looks to be severely hobbled. His film is being mediocrely recieved and doesn't look like a Best Picture threat at all. The whole "beloved veteran on the comeback trail that the industry is dying to award" narrative is starting to ring extremely hollow now. Fraser has never been so beloved or respected that he can overcome a movie recieved like this, that won't be a box office juggernaut.
Farrell is the type of performance that critics groups go for, but when the televised industry stuff comes into play, a Butler/Elvis coronation feels almost inevitable. I still cannot see the Academy going for Farrell (just the nature of the performance) but he might actually be in 2nd place, behind Butler and ahead of Fraser. |
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Post by pupdurcs on Dec 10, 2022 8:41:08 GMT
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 10, 2022 12:03:27 GMT
Congratulations Austin Butler for winning your first Best Actor Oscar!
Haha...maybe a bit premature, but the threat of Fraser looks to be severely hobbled. His film is being mediocrely recieved and doesn't look like a Best Picture threat at all. The whole "beloved veteran on the comeback trail that the industry is dying to award" narrative is starting to ring extremely hollow now. Fraser has never been so beloved or respected that he can overcome a movie recieved like this, that won't be a box office juggernaut.
Farrell is the type of performance that critics groups go for, but when the televised industry stuff comes into play, a Butler/Elvis coronation feels almost inevitable. I still cannot see the Academy going for Farrell (just the nature of the performance) but he might actually be in 2nd place, behind Butler and ahead of Fraser. I suspect that RT score is going to get lower. Based on what I am reading, everybody thinks Fraser was great, but "eating scenes" seems to divide critics. I suspect this might actually be Butler vs. Farrell. |
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Post by pacinoyes on Dec 10, 2022 12:37:06 GMT
everybody thinks Fraser was great, but "eating scenes" seems to divide critics. I suspect this might actually be Butler vs. Farrell. Not everybody - I reviewed this and didn't even mention him..........because he does not deserve to be mentioned ........he's ok - it is a total hype job - I said this somewhere else but Farrell - though he may not win - is waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay better - on merit - than Butler and Fraser...... Farrell - on merit - is several levels above both of them ........it's just an awful year for lead males - it's MADE for stealing this year ........ Jeremy Pope (The Inspection) acts circles around both of them too but of course he's out and I digress......
Side note - have we ever had both Volpi Cup winners win in the same year? I wouldn't call Farrell the favorite though I would Blanchett - and both are capable OF winning at least
The look on Farrell's face is the look his "competitors" deserve - he should burn their houses down and hope they are in it tbh   |
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Post by pupdurcs on Dec 10, 2022 12:51:19 GMT
No one who actually acts for a living is going to think Colin Farrell had a higher degree of difficulty in his performance than Austin Butler.
This is why some of the most respected and prominent actors in the business are going out of their way to endorse or co-sign Butler. Obviously he was "discovered" and recommended for the role of Elvis by Denzel Washington (and Butler's campaign has been milking that connection & mentorship in his campaign for all it's worth), but he's also got the likes of Leonardo DiCaprio, Brad Pitt, Gary Oldman and Emily Blunt either endorsing him or talking up how great they thought his performance was. Farrell does not have that. I think he could take the comedy/musical Golden Globe, but that might be his ceiling. I'll surprised if Butler doesn't win SAG at this point. It's a performance actors will be extremely impressed by, for good reason |
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 10, 2022 13:45:29 GMT
Butler
Cruise
Farrell
Fraser
Nighy
Farrell slightly ahead of Butler for the win.
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 10, 2022 13:51:11 GMT
Wait?? Glenn Whipp has Butler as his favourite male performance of the year?! Game over folks, congrats on your Oscar Austin! Now am I being a sarcastic asshole? Of course. But this is literally just one critic ranking via personal preference, the in contention performances. If critics wins don't mean much for Farrell, then stuff like this sure as shit don't mean anything for Butler. This early in the season I'll take Volpi, NYFC, NBR and a pretty much guaranteed Globe win, in a stronger film instead. |
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Post by Brother Fease on Dec 10, 2022 14:13:12 GMT
Butler Cruise Farrell Fraser Nighy Farrell slightly ahead of Butler for the win. That’s probably my feeling at the moment. I also really like the odds for Jeremy Pope and Gabrielle LaBelle. |
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Post by pupdurcs on Dec 10, 2022 14:27:07 GMT
Wait?? Glenn Whipp has Butler as his favourite male performance of the year?! Game over folks, congrats on your Oscar Austin! Now am I being a sarcastic asshole? Of course. But this is literally just one critic ranking via personal preference, the in contention performances. If critics wins don't mean much for Farrell, then stuff like this sure as shit don't mean anything for Butler. This early in the season I'll take Volpi, NYFC, NBR and a pretty much guaranteed Globe win, in a stronger film instead. Yeah, I don't recall claiming that Butler has the Oscar in the bag because one critic has him over everyone else in his rankings. But it's the LA Times, which is a major publication (particularly in an industry where Hollywood votes for the winners by and large), so it's relevant to perception of how Butler might be percieved in the heart of Hollywood. Whipp works for the major LA newspaper and is plugged into the industry. You can't discount his rankings as nothing because he's one guy. All these things are relevant and newswworthy for a thread like this. None of that means Butler will actually win the Oscar. So no need to get overly sensitive when articles like this are posted. |
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Post by quetee on Dec 10, 2022 14:29:03 GMT
Congratulations Austin Butler for winning your first Best Actor Oscar!
Haha...maybe a bit premature, but the threat of Fraser looks to be severely hobbled. His film is being mediocrely recieved and doesn't look like a Best Picture threat at all. The whole "beloved veteran on the comeback trail that the industry is dying to award" narrative is starting to ring extremely hollow now. Fraser has never been so beloved or respected that he can overcome a movie recieved like this, that won't be a box office juggernaut.
Farrell is the type of performance that critics groups go for, but when the televised industry stuff comes into play, a Butler/Elvis coronation feels almost inevitable. I still cannot see the Academy going for Farrell (just the nature of the performance) but he might actually be in 2nd place, behind Butler and ahead of Fraser. Yeah ..We been knew. Lmao. Austin is the frontrunner and has always been. Brendan..fake. Colin I'm happy he'll score a nod but you're right, he's the critic darling. The only think Austin has to fear is a Cruise nod because it could be his time. |
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Post by pupdurcs on Dec 10, 2022 14:44:51 GMT
Congratulations Austin Butler for winning your first Best Actor Oscar!
Haha...maybe a bit premature, but the threat of Fraser looks to be severely hobbled. His film is being mediocrely recieved and doesn't look like a Best Picture threat at all. The whole "beloved veteran on the comeback trail that the industry is dying to award" narrative is starting to ring extremely hollow now. Fraser has never been so beloved or respected that he can overcome a movie recieved like this, that won't be a box office juggernaut.
Farrell is the type of performance that critics groups go for, but when the televised industry stuff comes into play, a Butler/Elvis coronation feels almost inevitable. I still cannot see the Academy going for Farrell (just the nature of the performance) but he might actually be in 2nd place, behind Butler and ahead of Fraser. Yeah ..We been knew. Lmao. Austin is the frontrunner and has always been. Brendan..fake. Colin I'm happy he'll score a nod but you're right, he's the critic darling. The only think Austin has to fear is a Cruise nod because it could be his time. is a serious threat for a nomination (which I think is silly, as he can do that performance in his sleep & it's not a challenging part) but that is what happens when your film makes over a billion dollars and people want to build an awards season narrative around you. He is not a threat for the win. It would go down as one of the most ridiculous Best Actor wins of all time. So he's not a threat to Butler.Whenever it's Cruise's "time" he's probably going to need a stronger performance in a different type of film ( even if Top Gun: Maverick does get a BP nod, it'll be because the industry wants to acknowledge what it did in bringing people to theatres this year) |
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Post by pacinoyes on Dec 10, 2022 14:49:27 GMT
This board is ridiculous with this stuff: I think it's clear that Farrell or Butler could win - sure - but this time last year we had a lot of people saying they didn't buy Smith as a front-runner / easy lay-up win........come on.....and that was a performance that was off the charts in terms of why actors would vote for it - funny, heart-breaking, populist, husband, father, challenged race stereotypes.....that was A LOT more of a lock - as a performance than just the actor playing him - than Butler or Farrell is .......and people are acting like they "called" THAT slam dunk right in November / early December when they didn't......  |
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 10, 2022 14:53:22 GMT
Butler Cruise Farrell Fraser Nighy Farrell slightly ahead of Butler for the win. That’s probably my feeling at the moment. I also really like the odds for Jeremy Pope and Gabrielle LaBelle. I have LaBelle and Pope 8th and 9th respectively. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 10, 2022 14:55:05 GMT
At this point Cruise is probably 4th. Which is a crazy thing to say.
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 10, 2022 14:56:36 GMT
Wait?? Glenn Whipp has Butler as his favourite male performance of the year?! Game over folks, congrats on your Oscar Austin! Now am I being a sarcastic asshole? Of course. But this is literally just one critic ranking via personal preference, the in contention performances. If critics wins don't mean much for Farrell, then stuff like this sure as shit don't mean anything for Butler. This early in the season I'll take Volpi, NYFC, NBR and a pretty much guaranteed Globe win, in a stronger film instead. Yeah, I don't recall claiming that Butler has the Oscar in the bag because one critic has him over everyone else in his rankings. But it's the LA Times, which is a major publication (particularly in an industry where Hollywood votes for the winners by and large), so it's relevant to perception of how Butler might be percieved in the heart of Hollywood. Whipp works for the major LA newspaper and is plugged into the industry. You can't discount his rankings as nothing because he's one guy. All these things are relevant and newswworthy for a thread like this. None of that means Butler will actually win the Oscar. So no need to get overly sensitive when articles like this are posted. Yeah fair point about the LA connections. Will be interesting to see what Butler can do during the regional critics phase. Does anyone remember how Malek did with regional critics?? |
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Post by quetee on Dec 10, 2022 15:00:56 GMT
Yeah ..We been knew. Lmao. Austin is the frontrunner and has always been. Brendan..fake. Colin I'm happy he'll score a nod but you're right, he's the critic darling. The only think Austin has to fear is a Cruise nod because it could be his time. is a serious threat for a nomination (which I think is silly, as he can do that performance in his sleep & it's not a challenging part) but that is what happens when your film makes over a billion dollars and people want to build an awards season narrative around you. He is not a threat for the win. It would go down as one of the most ridiculous Best Actor wins of all time. So he's not a threat to Butler.Whenever it's Cruise's "time" he's probably going to need a stronger performance in a different type of film ( even if Top Gun: Maverick does get a BP nod, it'll be because the industry wants to acknowledge what it did in bringing people to theatres this year) Never underestimate the Academy and their need to give someone the Oscar cause it is their time. Cruise is huge star, was robbed for Magnolia and people like the movie and his character. This win would not be on same level as Pacino. I'm pulling for Austin but the nod has basically sent him through the roof career wise. A win won't help his career. Its just stats on a page. |
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Post by quetee on Dec 10, 2022 15:02:58 GMT
Yeah, I don't recall claiming that Butler has the Oscar in the bag because one critic has him over everyone else in his rankings. But it's the LA Times, which is a major publication (particularly in an industry where Hollywood votes for the winners by and large), so it's relevant to perception of how Butler might be percieved in the heart of Hollywood. Whipp works for the major LA newspaper and is plugged into the industry. You can't discount his rankings as nothing because he's one guy. All these things are relevant and newswworthy for a thread like this. None of that means Butler will actually win the Oscar. So no need to get overly sensitive when articles like this are posted. Yeah fair point about the LA connections. Will be interesting to see what Butler can do during the regional critics phase. Does anyone remember how Malek did with regional critics?? he bombed and I know this cause I had bohemian in tourney. |
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Post by mhynson27 on Dec 10, 2022 15:13:08 GMT
Cruise is a serious threat for a nomination (which I think is silly, as he can do that performance in his sleep & it's not a challenging part) but that is what happens when your film makes over a billion dollars and people want to build an awards season narrative around you. He is not a threat for the win. It would go down as one of the most ridiculous Best Actor wins of all time. So he's not a threat to Butler.Whenever it's Cruise's "time" he's probably going to need a stronger performance in a different type of film ( even if Top Gun: Maverick does get a BP nod, it'll be because the industry wants to acknowledge what it did in bringing people to theatres this year) . Cruise is huge star, was robbed for Magnolia and people like the movie and his character. This win would not be on same level as Pacino. I'm pulling for Austin but the nod has basically sent him through the roof career wise. A win won't help his career. Its just stats on a page. Tell that to Close and Boseman |
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Post by pacinoyes on Dec 10, 2022 15:20:59 GMT
"This win would not be on same level as Pacino."
Well, I'd say it wouldn't in the opposite way - Pacino was always winning, Cruise not so much - Cruise could win (maybe, it's possible). But the industry supported Pacino that year - so far the industry supports Cruise's movie - not him yet
* Pacino was the front-runner all year in '92
* Tom Cruise probably wasn't #2 NBR for best actor this year - Pacino was in '92 (behind Lemmon)
* Tom Cruise never deserved a BA win prior (imo) - Pacino did
* Tom Cruise won't be double nodded this year - Pacino was in '92 - historically the 1st male ever
* Pacino was on his 8th nod not his 4th like Cruise would be
That's revisionist history stuff about a Pacino make-up win is exactly that: revisionist ......I've said this before - if he had an Oscar before 1992 - he would have still won in '92 anyway - that's how strong his support was.....now whether he "should" have won ......that's another story....
Paul Newman is the better comparison to Cruise - he was around the same age then as Cruise is now and in a sequel when he won his make-up award.....though he had 7 nods......
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Post by quetee on Dec 10, 2022 16:41:25 GMT
Never underestimate the Academy and their need to give someone the Oscar cause it is their time. Cruise is huge star, was robbed for Magnolia and people like the movie and his character. This win would not be on same level as Pacino. I'm pulling for Austin but the nod has basically sent him through the roof career wise. A win won't help his career. Its just stats on a page. Tell that to Close and Boseman they were in movies that nobody watched and didn't care to watch. That is not the issue with Tom. His problem would be if they say, oh a producer win is enough. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 10, 2022 17:28:31 GMT
Tell that to Close and Boseman That is not the issue with Tom. His problem would be if they say, oh a producer win is enough. Can we please stop with this refrain? It’s just such an ignorant and inaccurate thing to say. |
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Post by pupdurcs on Dec 11, 2022 5:33:21 GMT
"This win would not be on same level as Pacino." Well, I'd say it wouldn't in the opposite way - Pacino was always winning, Cruise not so much - Cruise could win (maybe, it's possible). But the industry supported Pacino that year - so far the industry supports Cruise's movie - not him yet * Pacino was the front-runner all year in '92 * Tom Cruise probably wasn't #2 NBR for best actor this year - Pacino was in '92 (behind Lemmon) * Tom Cruise never deserved a BA win prior (imo) - Pacino did * Tom Cruise won't be double nodded this year - Pacino was in '92 - historically the 1st male ever * Pacino was on his 8th nod not his 4th like Cruise would be That's revisionist history stuff about a Pacino make-up win is exactly that: revisionist ......I've said this before - if he had an Oscar before 1992 - he would have still won in '92 anyway - that's how strong his support was.....now whether he "should" have won ......that's another story.... Paul Newman is the better comparison to Cruise - he was around the same age then as Cruise is now and in a sequel when he won his make-up award.....though he had 7 nods...... actually won the NBR Best Actor Award for The Color Of Money.The notion that "make-up/career" Oscars don't win precursors or have no significant industry support before taking the Oscar is ridiculous. Most career/make-up awards win something big or have significant industry or critic support before they take the Oscar. When people think it's someone's "time" based on their career, often the entire industry and many critics will galvanize behind them, so AMPAS falls in line and recognise it's time to give someone their career Oscar ( good example is Laura Dern in Marriage Story, an obvious career award, but she won a ton of precursors because it was her time to get her career Oscar and the whole industry and many critics wanted it to happen). John Wayne in True Grit is regarded as one of the clearest examples of a competitive "career Oscar", yet he still had to win the Golden Globe for Best Actor before he won the Oscar. The Golden Globe win was part of the "make-up/career" win. |
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Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Dec 11, 2022 5:37:26 GMT
Definitely think this is Farrell’s to lose at this point.
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Post by pacinoyes on Dec 11, 2022 6:20:15 GMT
"This win would not be on same level as Pacino." Well, I'd say it wouldn't in the opposite way - Pacino was always winning, Cruise not so much - Cruise could win (maybe, it's possible). But the industry supported Pacino that year - so far the industry supports Cruise's movie - not him yet * Pacino was the front-runner all year in '92 * Tom Cruise probably wasn't #2 NBR for best actor this year - Pacino was in '92 (behind Lemmon) * Tom Cruise never deserved a BA win prior (imo) - Pacino did * Tom Cruise won't be double nodded this year - Pacino was in '92 - historically the 1st male ever * Pacino was on his 8th nod not his 4th like Cruise would be That's revisionist history stuff about a Pacino make-up win is exactly that: revisionist ......I've said this before - if he had an Oscar before 1992 - he would have still won in '92 anyway - that's how strong his support was.....now whether he "should" have won ......that's another story.... Paul Newman is the better comparison to Cruise - he was around the same age then as Cruise is now and in a sequel when he won his make-up award.....though he had 7 nods...... actually won the NBR Best Actor Award for The Color Of Money.The notion that "make-up/career" Oscars don't win precursors or have no significant industry support before taking the Oscar is ridiculous. That is not what I said - at all - in response to another poster. I said Tom Cruise is not "likely" to win this year - and as a guy without a win - he's CLOSER to Newman than he ever was to Pacino who had a dominant year - critically and awards wise...... Newman lost the biggest precursor that year (back then it was the Golden Globe).........Pacino won the Globe ....... Cruise "may" win the Globe for a sequel like Newman ... .he may gain industry support - but he needs to win SOMETHING and it doesn't seem likely - the Globe matters LESS now than it did back then......the SAG probably won't go for him.........he flat out won't win BAFTA......... dismissing Farrell as "just "the critics darling" only is BS - the truth is Newman, Pacino, Bridges, Oldman, Smith were frontrunners for their whole years ...........Tom Cruise is not the frontrummer atm at all.............he's at best 3rd............could he get to #1? Maybe.......not yet ...........the point is - Farrell is clearly atm ahead of Cruise - he may be behind Butler......maybe notThx |
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