|
|
Post by Brother Fease on Oct 28, 2022 16:29:29 GMT
I know you guys have been waiting for this one. Best Actor. What are your feelings on this category?
The three members of the FYC crew on Perri Nemiroff's channel agreed on 4 out of the 5 choices. We had Austin Butler for Elvis, Colin Farrell for The Banshees of Inisherin, Brendan Fraser for The Whale, and Tom Cruise for Top Gun: Maverick. Scott Mantz and Perri Nemiroff had Bill Nighy for Living. The contrarian Jeff Sneider had Jeremy Pope for The Inspection. You can view the video here.
OTHER POTENTIAL CONTENDERS
Diego Calva, Babylon (Popular Picture) Daniel Craig, Glass Onion (Globes did nominate him the first-time around)
Felix Kammerer, All Quiet on the Western Front
Song Kang-ho, Broker (Best Actor winner at Canne Film Festival)
Park Hae-il, Decision to Leave
Hugh Jackman, The Son (Heard great things about the performance, just not the movie)
Gabriel LaBelle, The Fablemans (Popular Picture) Adam Sandler, Hustle Will Smith, Emancipation
You're free to pick whoever you want. I included three non-English speaking performances. Sandler and Smith have potential biases against them, but their performances are getting rave reviews.
|
|
|
|
Post by stephen on Oct 28, 2022 16:39:54 GMT
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin. My predicted winner.
Austin Butler, Elvis. Solidly in, I'd say.
Brendan Fraser, The Whale. Feels pretty safe. Still think he's going to get Rourke/Keaton'd at the end, though.
Bill Nighy, Living. Beloved veteran, been hunting his first nomination for a while.
That leaves the fifth slot. The Babylon buzz/backlash around Calva's initial FYC placement could benefit him if the film is adored, but it is very hard for a newcomer to break into the Best Actor field without critical momentum. Sandler's probably not happening (but it might be ammunition for them to recognize him for, say, the next Safdie Bros. movie as a way to rectify his Uncut Gems snub). Ditto Smith. Jackman still might be able to eke out a nomination by virtue of a strong studio and residual goodwill from The Father on Zeller's end, but his chances are waning. Not really expecting one of the international players like Song Kang-ho or Felix Kammerer to get in (even though they both deserve it). LaBelle feels like he'll go the route of Roman Griffin Davis and Jude Hill rather than getting that nomination. Craig is a possible dark horse depending on how Netflix pushes the film but legacy characters rarely get nominated for sequels if they didn't get it the first time (Sigourney Weaver is the outlier in this respect).
By process of elimination, that leaves Cruise. He's the face of the franchise, he's the one who pretty much singlehandedly drove the decision to release it in theaters and is kind of symbolic of the return to the cinema in that respect. He's got the same issue Daniel Craig has about the legacy character, but I think it's different here is that this is more about recognizing Cruise's achievements overall, and a Best Actor nod feels more in his grasp than Craig's. Might not be a winning performance, but he could easily Stallone this shit.
|
|
|
|
Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Oct 28, 2022 22:34:28 GMT
Bill "Nighty" lol  |
|
|
|
Post by mhynson27 on Oct 28, 2022 22:43:27 GMT
Butler
Calva
Farrell
Fraser
Nighy
|
|
|
|
Post by mhynson27 on Oct 28, 2022 22:44:43 GMT
A very interesting prospect is Farrell taking the same route as Colman to glory.
Volpi, BAFTA, Comedy Globe, Oscar
|
|
flasuss
Badass
Posts: 1,825 
Likes: 1,614
|
Post by flasuss on Oct 28, 2022 22:52:24 GMT
Right now I'm predicting Fraser,Farrell,. Butler, Nighy and Cruise, but the last two might miss.
|
|
|
|
Post by Brother Fease on Oct 28, 2022 22:58:12 GMT
I blame this on the rabbit.
|
|
|
|
Post by JangoB on Oct 29, 2022 0:55:11 GMT
A Nighty Butler walks up to Pharrell williams and says 'Hey, wanna watch a rerun of Fraser? Oh, sorry, thought you were Jack, man'
...I'll see myself out.
|
|
|
|
Post by Brother Fease on Oct 29, 2022 2:54:11 GMT
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin. My predicted winner. Austin Butler, Elvis. Solidly in, I'd say. Brendan Fraser, The Whale. Feels pretty safe. Still think he's going to get Rourke/Keaton'd at the end, though. Bill Nighy, Living. Beloved veteran, been hunting his first nomination for a while. By process of elimination, that leaves Cruise. He's the face of the franchise, he's the one who pretty much singlehandedly drove the decision to release it in theaters and is kind of symbolic of the return to the cinema in that respect. He's got the same issue Daniel Craig has about the legacy character, but I think it's different here is that this is more about recognizing Cruise's achievements overall, and a Best Actor nod feels more in his grasp than Craig's. Might not be a winning performance, but he could easily Stallone this shit. I think we're close to agreement on this one.
My ranking order is Fraser, Butler, Farrell, Cruise and then Nighy. Cruise and Nighy are in the wildcard position. I think Cruise gets in because it is a terrific performance in a movie they really love. The Academy doesn't care about box-office -- last season, many people made an argument for Spider-Man based on box-office returns. I said it was nonsense at the time and I was correct, just like I was correct about CODA and King Richard. Nighy is the most vulnerable due to the lack of enthusiasm for the picture. I think if Will Smith delivers a knockout performance, he'll probably get nominated and we will not hear this "Oscar so white" calls.
|
|
|
|
Post by Brother Fease on Oct 29, 2022 2:57:15 GMT
A very interesting prospect is Farrell taking the same route as Colman to glory. Volpi, BAFTA, Comedy Globe, Oscar Is Colin your favorite to win here? He unquestionably had a great year -- The Batman, After Yang and Banshees. My predicted winner is Austin Butler, if Elvis gets into the Best Picture line-up, which I think it will. |
|
|
|
Post by pupdurcs on Oct 29, 2022 4:07:37 GMT
I've seen The Banshees Of Inershin.
I will be absolutely shocked if Farrell wins for this. I don't think it can happen. This is not the kind of performance that wins Best Actor. It's a lightly comedic performance, where Farrell just seems to be playing a version of his charming, sweary Irish self in 1800's period costume. The stretch is almost impossible for voters to see . I 'd have an easier time seeing Farrell win an Oscar for his work in The Batman .
Winner will be Butler or Fraser.
|
|
|
|
Post by mhynson27 on Oct 29, 2022 6:45:59 GMT
A very interesting prospect is Farrell taking the same route as Colman to glory. Volpi, BAFTA, Comedy Globe, Oscar Is Colin your favorite to win here? He unquestionably had a great year -- The Batman, After Yang and Banshees. My predicted winner is Austin Butler, if Elvis gets into the Best Picture line-up, which I think it will. I'm still feeling Fraser and Butler more, but I think it's well within the realm of possibility. |
|
|
|
Post by mhynson27 on Oct 29, 2022 6:48:27 GMT
I've seen The Banshees Of Inershin.I will be absolutely shocked if Farrell wins for this. I don't think it can happen. This is not the kind of performance that wins Best Actor. It's a lightly comedic performance, where Farrell just seems to be playing a version of his charming, sweary Irish self in 1800's period costume. The stretch is almost impossible for voters to see . I 'd have an easier time seeing Farrell win an Oscar for his work in The Batman . Winner will be Butler or Fraser. The rest of your post puts that into question. |
|
|
|
Post by pupdurcs on Oct 29, 2022 7:42:32 GMT
I've seen The Banshees Of Inershin.I will be absolutely shocked if Farrell wins for this. I don't think it can happen. This is not the kind of performance that wins Best Actor. It's a lightly comedic performance, where Farrell just seems to be playing a version of his charming, sweary Irish self in 1800's period costume. The stretch is almost impossible for voters to see . I 'd have an easier time seeing Farrell win an Oscar for his work in The Batman . Winner will be Butler or Fraser. The rest of your post puts that into question. Other than flippantly calling it "1800's period costume" (I know the thing is set in the 1920's but the film feels so archaic in setting, that it might as well be set in in the 1800's to me), everything I said stands in my opinion. Yeah, Farell has a bit of dramatic pathos in moments, but his whole performance is about being a fecking charming, sweary, hard drinking Irishman (hmm.. who does that sound like?) who loves his donkey and has fallen out with his friend for no particular reason (with said friend chopping off his fingers for no sane reason). He's not playing himself obviously, but it doesn't feel like a huge stretch for him in my opinion. I've seen it, and found it diverting with quite a few funny lines, but I'm sort of baffled at the hype. My opinion. I did enjoy the scene where he's confronting Gleeson's character in the pub and Barry Keoghan's shitty policeman father and Gleeson's speech about nobody remembering Farrell's character for being nice long after he's dead, but they will remember music, Beethoven, Mozart etc. Anyway I can't see Farrell winning Best Actor for this. Like at all. I could be wrong, but I doubt it. I can't think of the last time a performance like this won Best Actor. Mostly comedic and not transformational enough. They make fucking jokes out of him sleeping in the same room with his donkey...... |
|
|
|
Post by Brother Fease on Oct 29, 2022 12:03:38 GMT
Looks like somebody just voted for one person and that's it. We need five votes here, not one.
So far, our message board group seems to agree on all five nominees. How do we feel about Butler, Farrell, or Fraser winning here? I am going to go Butler. My only hesitation about putting Fraser #1 is the movie's odds of getting that Best Picture nod. Butler feels more like a Rami Malek type of deal. We started off the conversation about Christian Bale playing Cheney and Bradley Cooper playing Jackson, and then that SAG win launched him into that front-runner status.
|
|
|
|
Post by mhynson27 on Oct 29, 2022 14:04:04 GMT
The rest of your post puts that into question. Other than flippantly calling it "1800's period costume" (I know the thing is set in the 1920's but the film feels so archaic in setting, that it might as well be set in in the 1800's to me), everything I said stands in my opinion. Yeah, Farell has a bit of dramatic pathos in moments, but his whole performance is about being a fecking charming, sweary, hard drinking Irishman (hmm.. who does that sound like?) who loves his donkey and has fallen out with his friend for no particular reason (with said friend chopping off his fingers for no sane reason). He's not playing himself obviously, but it doesn't feel like a huge stretch for him in my opinion. I've seen it, and found it diverting with quite a few funny lines, but I'm sort of baffled at the hype. My opinion. I did enjoy the scene where he's confronting Gleeson's character in the pub and Barry Keoghan's shitty policeman father and Gleeson's speech about nobody remembering Farrell's character for being nice long after he's dead, but they will remember music, Beethoven, Mozart etc. Anyway I can't see Farrell winning Best Actor for this. Like at all. I could be wrong, but I doubt it. I can't think of the last time a performance like this won Best Actor. Mostly comedic and not transformational enough. They make fucking jokes out of him sleeping in the same room with his donkey...... Oh I 100% agree that it would be a pretty unique win, I just think the category is weak enough this year that it could happen. I still have him at a not too distant 3rd, but what I think will help him is that he has the strongest film out of the bunch. And yeah, I do seem to like it a lot more than you did, so maybe that is playing into our respective predictions. |
|
|
|
Post by quetee on Oct 29, 2022 14:38:41 GMT
Looks like somebody just voted for one person and that's it. We need five votes here, not one. So far, our message board group seems to agree on all five nominees. How do we feel about Butler, Farrell, or Fraser winning here? I am going to go Butler. My only hesitation about putting Fraser #1 is the movie's odds of getting that Best Picture nod. Butler feels more like a Rami Malek type of deal. We started off the conversation about Christian Bale playing Cheney and Bradley Cooper playing Jackson, and then that SAG win launched him into that front-runner status. same 4 or 5 and no precursor action. Where is the major snub? |
|
|
|
Post by Brother Fease on Oct 29, 2022 16:54:02 GMT
Looks like somebody just voted for one person and that's it. We need five votes here, not one. So far, our message board group seems to agree on all five nominees. How do we feel about Butler, Farrell, or Fraser winning here? I am going to go Butler. My only hesitation about putting Fraser #1 is the movie's odds of getting that Best Picture nod. Butler feels more like a Rami Malek type of deal. We started off the conversation about Christian Bale playing Cheney and Bradley Cooper playing Jackson, and then that SAG win launched him into that front-runner status. same 4 or 5 and no precursor action. Where is the major snub? The Best Actor category appears to be low in quantity, but highly competitive at the top. We will see what happens in December and January. This might be a dead wrong assessment. Actress feels much more competitive and with tons of high-caliber performances.
|
|
SZilla
Badass
Posts: 1,306
Likes: 862
|
Post by SZilla on Oct 29, 2022 17:20:51 GMT
I’ll say
Fraser
Jackman
Farrell
Butler
And then maybe Nighy
|
|
|
|
Post by Mattsby on Oct 29, 2022 18:42:42 GMT
Austin Butler, Elvis
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
Diego Calva, Babylon
|
|
|
|
Post by Pittsnogle_Goggins on Oct 29, 2022 19:14:01 GMT
For now I’ll go with:
Fraser
Butler
Farrell
Nighy
Cruise
Alt: Jackman
Don’t think Calva will come remotely close to even sniffing a nom tbh
|
|
|
|
Post by Tommen_Saperstein on Oct 29, 2022 21:21:10 GMT
as always this race is less exciting/competitive than actress. I'm going with the consensus of ButlerCruiseFarrellFraserNighy. I have Calva right on the outside and of course there's Jackman and Cacho too but their films are super divisive.
|
|
|
|
Post by sterlingarcher86 on Oct 30, 2022 22:44:58 GMT
Going with Jackman. The Academy nominated baity performances in mediocre movies all the time.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
Likes:
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 31, 2022 0:22:49 GMT
Austin Butler
Colin Farrell
Brendan Fraser
Hugh Jackman
Bill Nighy
|
|
|
|
Post by The_Cake_of_Roth on Oct 31, 2022 2:01:20 GMT
Really don't buy Jackman here. Yes, the Academy often nominates baity performances in mediocre movies, but this film seems to really be turning people off, and not only does SPC never get in movies with mixed/bad reviews, but they also almost never have two nominees in the same category.
|
|
